2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSome electoral maps based on predictwise odds.
Here are a few maps I created based on the state-by-state prediction market odds from predictwise.
As the odds stand right now, Trump would need to win all the states he is favored in, then both OH and FL which are 70% for Hillary, and at least one state that is 80% or more favored for Hillary in order to reach 270. His best bets there are either PA (80% Hillary) or a combination of VA (82%) and one of NH, NV, or IA (all 82%).
For the first map, the solid blue/red are states with 90% or greater forecast, then 80%, then anything over 50%:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/5978d
For this one, the breaks come at 95%, then 85%, then 75%, and the rest are toss-ups.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/qjG7X
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Obama won 365 in 2008.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)DanTex
(20,709 posts)I can see Hillary winning NC, but IN will be tough. Maybe AZ. Possibly even GA. But there just aren't that many states left to go much beyond 332.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)There are several 'red' states that Clinton is more likely to win than Indiana. NC, GA, LA, AZ, MO and AR to name a handful. I'm not saying she'll win all of those, but I think she'll do better in most or all of those states than she'll do in Indiana.
tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)Louisiana is possible I guess but I wouldn't say it's any more possible than Indiana. I agree with you on all the rest.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Of course, Bill had much closer ties to AR. And it was a different time. So, yeah, Hillary may do better in IN than she does in AR or LA or GA. But I won't be shocked if she doesn't.
Gothmog
(144,945 posts)LonePirate
(13,408 posts)If they lose those two states or if Trump has to campaign in them, then the so-called swing states of FL, NC and OH will be deep blue in this election.