In 2 days BrExit might determine who will be in the WH. Normally

[CK_John]

people love to complain and say outrageous things in a group but in the solitude of the ballot, the devil you know wins out over the change to a new devil.

So I'm thinking they will stay in the EU, if not they will wreck the economic structure of Europe and put the US economy into the dumpster.

Which will not help Hillary.

[PoliticAverse]

1. Sorry, Trump's still not going to win. n/t

[Agnosticsherbet]

2. If Briton goes, will Greece be next?

[CK_John]

3. All of EU will be like Greece, a mess.

[L. Coyote]

19. The world is ending, the world is ending, the world is ending. Sorry, not falling for it.

So what, don't bother to vote?

[TwilightZone]

4. All by November?

Good luck with that.

Maybe that's Trump's new (only?) strategy. Hope that Britain leaves the EU and somehow crashes the world economy in the next four months.

[CK_John]

6. If they leave the EU on Thur, Fri we will be back to 2008.

[L. Coyote]

5. Keep dreaming those fantasies all you want, but

there is still a real world out there and it doesn't collapse just because someone has a fear.

I'm of a different viewpoint. I think voters determine who will be in the White House.

[CK_John]

7. We should know Fri.

[L. Coyote]

9. Actually no. We already know that the global economy and American election will not turn on this.

[anigbrowl]

29. I disagree with your judgment

We do not 'already know' any such thing - you're conflating your opinion with fact, a bad cognitive habit.

A vote for Britain to leave the EU is going to have some sort of impact on the EU, which is a) the world's largest trading bloc and single market and b) on the verge of recession. If you think that won't affect the global economy you're optimistic to the point of delusion, you have to at least consider the possibility that it will result in fiscal instability.

Likewise while it is far from the only factor in the US election, the attitudes in the Brexit campaign are sufficiently similar to those expressed by Trump, and the UK sufficiently similar to the US as a polity (not least due to history and language in common) that it seems naive to think a positive result in one case wouldn't embolden those of a similar opinion here, while demoralizing their opponents.

I suggest you apply some critical thinking to your comfortable assumptions and question whether they are really rooted in fact or not.

[L. Coyote]

33. AndI with your prediction of the future, which isn't judgement so much as magical thinking.

You imagine the US election and the global economy depends on this one election. That crystal ball might be defective. I'll stick with judgement.

[LonePirate]

8. More Americans need to be paying attention to this issue.

If Brexit passes, the potential dangers to the economy are massive. If the economy tanks severely - which is a definite possibility if Brexit passes - then Obama and by extension Hillary, will be blamed. Trump will receive a substantial boost if the economy craters.

[BlueNoMatterWho]

10. Two biggest UK newspapers weigh in

The Sun and the Daily Mail - the 2 biggest newspapers in the UK - have announced their support for the UK to leave the European Union

[Lord Magus]

15. You mean the two biggest UK tabloids?

No surprise that far-right rags are advocating that Britain leave the EU. Meanwhile, something tells me that a pro-Brexit neo-Nazi assassinating an anti-Brexit MP isn't the sort of thing that sways people in favor of Brexit.

Also, does anybody know who coined the term "Brexit" so that I can punch them in the face?

[BlueNoMatterWho]

16. I just quoted the breaking news headline. Maybe they have the top two circulations in the UK?

[Lord Magus]

18. They do, but that doesn't mean the UK people take the tabloids seriously. -nt-

[anigbrowl]

30. Context is everything

Non-Americans seem not to understand Britain's newspaper market. Although this comedy scene is old it is still a reliable guide to the UK media:

The bit at the end about Sun readers wanting whoever runs the country to have big tits refers to that newspaper's long-standing habit of printing a picture of a topless woman on page 3 every day.

[BlueMTexpat]

34. Both are owned by Rupert Murdoch.

Of course, they support Brexit. Whatever happens, Rupert and his ilk will do just fine.

Leaving would be a very short-sighted and ultimately stupid decision. I find it quite disturbing that so many US nationals, especially those who like to call themselves "progressives," seem to support Brexit. That would reinforce Britain's radical RW, who make most Tories look like pussycats. I am not fond of the Tories at all so that is saying something.

There are a LOT of Americans who have been rooting for the EU to fail, which I find to be extremely sad. Why on earth anyone sane would root for such a thing is literally impossible for me to understand. Yes, the EU has its problems and is not perfect by any means, just as we in the US have ours and we are certainly not perfect either. It seems to me to be at least partly based on jealousy - in that the EU can serve as a counterweight to US hegemony. That is something that those who are imbued with US "exceptionalism" literally cannot stomach.

Thankfully, neither Prez O, nor Hillary, nor any US politician that I respect feels that way.

Most in the EU are genuinely striving for ideals of peace, understanding and global betterment. Many in Europe still have first-hand memories of WWII and its immediate aftermath and never - EVER - want such a situation to occur in their homelands ever again.

Right now the markets are optimistic that "remain" will win, even if narrowly. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/23/european-markets-uk-referendum-eu-vote-brexit.html

Europe finished in positive territory on Thursday, as investors worldwide speculated whether Britain would remain a member of the European Union (EU), once the results of the country's referendum are announced early Friday.

The pan-European STOXX 600 finished up 1.3 percent provisionally, having fluctuated throughout the trading day. In the sector space, all closed higher, with autos, banks and basic resources leading the charge.

Britain's FTSE 100 index hit a two-month high during trade, however came under slight pressure in the afternoon. It closed up 1.2 percent, supported by its miners. The French CAC and German DAX soared, closing 1.9 and 1.7 percent respectively; while in peripheral markets, the FTSE MIB popped over 3 percent.

I sincerely hope that the markets are right.

[brooklynite]

11. Too much hyperbole...

The Brexit, if approved, won't happen for a long time. The economic impacts will be more long term than the election.

[auntpurl]

20. That probably doesn't matter for the economy

The pound is in the toilet NOW, just in anticipation of the vote.

[anigbrowl]

31. The unwinding will be slow but you are wrong to think the impact will be short term

Financial markets in the UK are exquisitely sensitive to EU policy. I have had the unpleasant experience of dealing with a multi-point interest rate hike in my mortgage rate overnight following a sudden decision by a UK chancellor of the exchequer (treasury secretary) on the UK's participation in an exchange rate alignment mechanism.

This isn't like something happening ina state legislature that eventually works its way up to federal. It is is just as destabilizing as if Texas decided to leave the US and markets will respond rapidly if the UK votes to leave, it could easily throw the EU into recession by the end of the year.

I'm a Euro BTW.

[Exilednight]

50. The EU says they want the paperwork by next Tuesday, and they want to get this divorce done as fast

As possible.

For the world economy it is best to end this as fast as possible.

[treestar]

12. Why would that cause OUR

Economy to tank ? And if it would rank their economy why would the Brits vote for it? And why should a decision made in Britain affect our election? I seem to recall we are no longer part of that country

[stevenleser]

13. It wouldn't necessarily. It could just as easily send global investors clamoring for the US as a

safe haven for their investment money and result in a massive inflow of investment capital.

Or it could be a non-event as far as the US is concerned.

[Exilednight]

23. It will actually have the reverse effect.

The US has many manufacturing plants inside the UK. The big auto makers have plants, M&M Mars, General Electric etc etc etc. These aren't small companies.

I'm currently advising investors to dump these investments if Brexit passes and move holdings to more stable companies with EU ties.

There's going to be an immediate impact that will not be resolved anytime in the near future. One reason this has such a huge impact is due to England's proximity to the US as opposed to other countries. Shipping channels are typically safe and direct compared to other countries. England benefits from the EUs open border system allowing companies to relocate employees without bureaucracy getting in the way, thus allowing them to keep costs stable while providing services and goods we need. It's also a major hub for oil imports coming from Europe.

We saw the impact that a small country like Greece had on the global economy, now magnify that by three to five if Brexit passes. Basically, everything Obama achieved will be reversed in a short time.

Another way to think about it, look what happened to Japan in the 80s, and the effect it had on the world economy. It tanked ours along with most industrialized countries at the time and gave us Reaganomics.

[CorkySt.Clair]

26. "Everything Obama achieved will be reversed."

So you're saying that a Brexit would reverse the ACA? We'll be back at 10 percent unemployment? Gays will have to go back to don't ask don't tell in the military? We'll have 250,000 troops in Iraq again? Dodd Frank will be repealed and Osama Bin Laden will come back to life? Fuel efficiency standards in cars will go back to pre 2008 levels?...

Geez the British are more powerful than they were at the height of the empire!

[Exilednight]

28. Economically, yes. We could easily go back to 10% unemployment. But you knew exactly what I was

Talking about.

[auntpurl]

21. This is a rather provincial point of view.

There's a whole world out there, and quite a lot of it can affect the US.

[treestar]

22. I didn't say that it could not

But the OP is claiming one country's decision will decide our presidency! No, our voters will. I don't care what the British do. And that they have the power to tank the world's economy on their own is ridiculous.

[Exilednight]

24. Obama won due to the economy, so did Bill. In fact

They both won twice.

[anigbrowl]

32. Because the EU is likely to go into recession and that's our biggest export market

I don't feel like writing an essay to explain it, but if you think this isn't a big deal then I have to say you don't know much about geopolitics and should learn more about it.

[treestar]

35. The EU will go into recession because it loses the UK?

The entire EU?

And we then must go into recession too? Did not know much about geopolitics I guess. Who knew we were so vulnerable. Man. That's sad. The UK can bring us down. And as a result we elect Trump just because. We are stupid too, I guess.

[auntpurl]

38. When you say "the entire EU"

what you should keep in mind is that the UK and Germany (and to a lesser extent, France) are the few countries who contribute more to the EU than they take out. This is misleading (and one of the arguments the Leave camp uses) because to maintain the trade agreements we currently have with the EU, we'd have to spend as much or more as we already put into the EU. But regardless, the loss of the UK to the EU would be crippling. And even though the provisions of Leave wouldn't go into effect for around 2 years, the financial market effect would be immediate. The British pound is ALREADY tanking just in anticipation of the vote today.

It's not that the US MUST go into recession, in terms of dollars and cents, it's that financial markets are extremely touchy entities, and the Big Three (US, Japan, and UK) have a knock-on effect to each other. You may not know it, but the vast majority of major global financial transactions pass through one of those three markets. Despite UK's relatively small stature on the world stage in terms of GDP and population etc, it is one of the three most important banking centers of the world (as above).

It's good to know about this stuff. Before I left the US, I really didn't concern myself with world economics. It just wasn't on my radar. When I left the US, I realised there was a whole world going on without my knowledge.

[treestar]

46. Odd that they are tanking

if this is supposed to help them? Why vote for it - what economic advantages are expected?

And I'm still amazed that if it has this big effect, that we haven't been following the whole debate since it started. DU seems to have discovered it last week.

Kind of puts the kibosh on DUer who argue the CIA / US is out there controlling everything.

[anigbrowl]

40. It's a distinct possibility

The rest of your message is unworthy of reply since you are clearly not interested in having a two way conversation.

[treestar]

48. How come you are so invested in

UK being able to tank the world's economy by leaving the EU?

[auntpurl]

43. *gestures at Dow*

[pampango]

36. We exported more to Canada ($281 billion) than to the EU ($272 billion) in 2015.

The EU receives about 19% of our exports. That is significant but not a recession-causer if there is a decline in our exports to them.

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/index.html

[anigbrowl]

41. We disagree about this

Historically the EU is a bigger export market, notwithstanding a single year's data points. We also import morefrom the EU than from Canada and maintain a bigger trade balance with them. I think that a fall in demand for ~20% of our export markets indeed has the potential to cause a recession here, and that the EU itself is at risk of a major recession in the immediate (1-2 year) term and potentially the collapse of the EU within 5-10 years.

[treestar]

47. Interesting there was the claim that EU is our

"biggest trading partner" so that seems untrue.

[pampango]

14. Maybe that's why Trump supports Brexit and Obama, Clinton and Sanders all oppose it.

I doubt what happens Thursday in the UK will have that much of an effect on the US.

Trump’s campaign has renewed his support for the United Kingdom leaving the European Union

[malaise]

17. Stay will win

Have no fear

[0rganism]

44. oops

can't win 'em all

[malaise]

49. This one is a stunner

Damn!

[malaise]

45. I'm as shocked as most people

believe me. Bye bye Cameron.
Scotland will walk as well

[CorkySt.Clair]

25. No, it won't.

[applegrove]

27. I digress. If the Brexit happens and the economy tanks, Democrats could hang that

around the neck of xenophobes like Trump because his policies are the same isolationist ones. And it will be proven people like him can destabilize economic wellbeing.

[bernie_FTW]

37. Hillary's got this. It is a win-win for Hillary

If Briton's exit EU, they will suffer consequences and it will be hung on the necks of isolationist nationalist conservative types which will hurt isolationist dominionist types in this country. Advantage Hillary

If Briton's stay in EU, then it is a status quo and the keeping all assumptions in place will help Hillary who is already on track to steam roll Trump or any late breaking replacements GOP might install at the convention.

[auntpurl]

39. Well, today's the day.

Despite the fact I disagree with the premise of the OP, I am still very interested in the responses here. Lot of people who don't really understand the situation, which is understandable because neither campaign has been great at explaining it, and also most ppl in the US don't care very much about what's happening in the rest of the world.

Anyway, for all of you in the UK, get out and vote! And vote Remain ffs, seriously. Good luck everybody! Let's try to avoid this completely avoidable fucking disaster!

[CK_John]

42. BBC just called it "Leave the EU".

[beachbumbob]

51. Reactionary response holds no water for trump winning anything

[liberal N proud]

52. It might serve to wake up some of the republicans who would otherwise vote Trump

They may decide the country is more important than just winning the White House.