Trump will not be the nominee

[Evergreen Emerald]

He has not attempted to raise money--but Ryan and Romney have. Has has purchased no ads...none in the upcoming swing states. Ryan has been all over the media lately, talking reasonably.

I think it is going to be Ryan.

[Lance Bass esquire]

1. Don't know who it will be....

But it won't be Trump Monkey.

Game over...he is way over his head and gets worse for him each day.


Houston ...we have problem should be his campaign slogan

[Iliyah]

2. T-rump still have corporate media kissing his arse.

[TheCowsCameHome]

3. It won't be Trump, and hopefully not Ryan

I still think Mitt is waiting in the green room for another try.

[Hortensis]

13. If this confirms they're in end times for many

religious Republicans (we know a few), how is it appearing to a man wondering if God is going to call him to preside over Armageddon from the White House? (And mean it this time.) Waiting may be exactly the right word--for the sign.

[BootinUp]

4. There was a good segment with Michael Steele on MSNBC

he ridiculed the notion pretty thoroughly that Trump would not be the nominee.

[leeroysphitz]

15. Well if Michael Steele says so... n/t

[Cali_Democrat]

18. Ya...what does the former RNC chairman know about this kind of stuff?

....I'd rather listen to anonymous posters on message boards...

[Lord Magus]

5. Can we please stop this nonsense?

It doesn't matter what Romney or Ryan wants and it doesn't matter what money they've raised, there's nothing they can do to overthrow Trump. He simply has far too many delegates. These are pledged delegates who are required to vote for him on the first ballot.

[Garrett78]

6. Pledged delegates aren't required to vote any such way. That's a misconception.

They could abstain or vote for someone else.

[Maru Kitteh]

11. Buuuuuut, they won't.

Trump is the raw red meaty core of their party and they know it. They know that core would leave en masse if they pulled such a stunt.

It's Drumpf.

[PJMcK]

30. It would be way far-out if they try to replace Donald Trump

Listening and reading all of the views and "rules" regarding the Republican nomination process, I have to agree with you, Maru Kitteh. The establishment faction of the GOP knows that they'll have a huge problem with their voting base if they use parliamentarian rules to deny Donald Trump the nomination.

Frankly, I don't think they'd "leave en masse," as you wrote. Without hyperbole, I think they could riot. Consider the violence they've displayed at Mr. Trump's rallies; it has felt like the perpetrators were testing the waters to see how far they could go.

The only way that The Donald will leave the race, I think, is if he chooses to do so, for whatever reason. Meanwhile, it's fun to watch the shit-show!

[Hortensis]

12. Fwiw, a delegate group is attempting to get a

"conscience" rule passed that would allow delegates to break that pledge under certain circumstances.

[renate]

29. but I'm curious about that...

It sounded intriguing when that group's leader was on Rachel's show last night, but I wonder how many Trump delegates that would apply to? He was saying the same things during the primaries and before his freefall that he's saying now, so it's not as though the veil has been drawn away from any Trump delegate's eyes. The only difference now is that he's clearly an utter disaster as their party's nominee.

[Hortensis]

33. Good point. I'm guessing the point of conscience

that would probably matter under the rule would be the votes at the convention, not what came before.

If expected to justify, they can claim his true nature and unsuitability were revealed by some event. And, if anything, it's probably as likely to be more true than not for those delegates who are in the habit of just believing whatever they want, facts be damned. We are talking about Trump supporters here. Just adopt a new reality when the old one no longer suits and go with it.

[Garrett78]

7. I seriously doubt Ryan would run under those circumstances.

If Trump isn't the nominee, it'll be someone who knows this year represents his or her only chance at ever being the nominee.

Ryan likely has his eyes on 2020 or 2024. He's not going to make himself a sacrificial lamb.

[ecstatic]

8. We'll know in about a month.

I really don't see him improving over the next few weeks. He'll probably be worse. If forced to release taxes, he may step aside.

When weighing in on the topic, you can't just take the GOP rules into account--Trump is a severe narcissist who will act erratically if pushed into a corner. That's why smart people are terrified of what a Trump presidency would mean for our safety.

[Garrett78]

10. The GOP is terrified of what he'll do to their brand.

I don't think anyone at this point can honestly think Trump will become POTUS. Ordinarily, I'd say it's crazy to suggest a presumed nominee will be denied the nomination (by way of delegates abstaining or casting a vote for someone else). But Trump is not ordinary.

I certainly wouldn't bet against Trump being nominated, but I won't be shocked if he drops out or is denied the nomination at the convention. The Republican Party can accept Clinton becoming the next POTUS, but I bet many Republicans are worried about the long-term damage Trump could do by continuing to campaign for another 5 months.

[AntiBank]

14. The Republican Party can accept Clinton becoming the next POTUS<<<< oh so true. As long as they

keep both houses I truly think they would take that deal at this point except for the HUGE issue that the next POTUS might get to appoint as many as 4 Supreme Court justices.

The Repugs are truly fucked about now.

[33taw]

9. Even if Trump is not the nominee his supporters will support him. They are too rabid and

Will revolt if he isn't the nominee.

[L. Coyote]

17. They will do what he tells them to do. Trump will endorse Romney/Ryan when stepping down.

And that will be the end of this discussion.

[dhol82]

31. That's an unholy marriage.

[book_worm]

16. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't

14 million voted for Trump and his white, uneducated, working class voters are a big part of the GOP base so if they dump him they may also dump many voters who will take revenge by not voting at all. If somebody who didn't compete in the primaries comes out of nowhere and takes the nomination it will doom the party as much as going with Trump will.

I think they are stuck with Trump.

[GreatGazoo]

19. Someone hired a polling firm to poll Ryan/Kasich vs Hillary

and they were polling as of June 20.

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/06/20/hmmm-someone-out-there-is-polling-a-paul-ryanhillary-clinton-race/

[Lord Magus]

25. Well if somebody wants to waste their money on fantasy polling... -nt-

[flamingdem]

20. I think it might be Ryan too

This way he doesn't even have to go through a primary. He'll have so little time exposed to the voters that they'll just vote lock step for him.

What we don't know is how Trump will exit, he might be paid off.

[Evergreen Emerald]

21. Today, Paul Ryan released his specific positions and action plans

couched in the 'republican party' platform. He is on cable news talking about them. He is now campaigning.

[obamanut2012]

22. I think he absolutely will be

Unless he drops out.

[Sunlei]

23. by our constitution Ryan is in the current presidential line of succession. So he's PRE- 'approved'

"pre-approved"
1
Vice President Joe Biden (D)

2
Speaker of the House of Representatives Paul Ryan (R)

3
President pro tempore of the Senate Orrin Hatch (R)

4
Secretary of State John Kerry (D)

[Evergreen Emerald]

24. Right

and they are now doing polls to see how he would fair in a campaign. I am ignoring the will of the people, however I do believe Trump will continue to alienate the people--likely purposefully.

[Purveyor]

26. I believe this to be true. I'll split my bet between Kasich and Ryan with

Kasich being the most troublesome, imo.

[MFM008]

27. Cruz is licking his chops

to get in . Rubios out because they want him to stay in the senate.
Possibly Jebbie but Cruz.
Think Ryan will hold his powder till 2020.

[BainsBane]

28. He IS the nominee

A disaster, but he still is the nominee.

[David__77]

32. Trump isn't doing so badly in polling, in my opinion.

Considering the things he has said, that he isn't down 15 or 20 points is noteworthy to me.

I don't think that the Republicans will select someone other than the choice of the Republican voters. So many other candidates were rejected by those voters. Why would they pick a losing presidential candidate to replace the choice of their own voters?

[PoliticAverse]

34. Another data point in favor of your theory - Apple CEO Tim Cook is holding a fundraiser...

for Paul Ryan.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2016/06/20/tim-cook-to-host-fundraiser-for-paul-ryan.html