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Wed Jun 22, 2016, 04:56 PM

 

California’s lengthy vote count stokes theories that Sanders actually won the primary



It's true that the ballots counted since Election Day have split more evenly between Sanders and Clinton than the early vote or Election Day ballots. When the networks called the race, 3,442,623 votes had been cast for either candidate, with Clinton leading by 438,537 votes. As of the last ballot update Wednesday morning, 4,693,010 total votes had been cast. Clinton's lead was at 445,366 votes.

But the water-torture nature of the count, which processes as few as 25,000 new ballots a day, has dangled out hope for Sanders supporters. On election day, Sanders won just two congressional districts and lost counties that his campaign thought were favorable, such as Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo and Yolo (home of the University of California at Davis).

Sanders has since won those counties and picked up five more congressional districts, including the 13th District, which covers the city of Berkeley and had shocked reporters on election day by apparently going for Clinton.... Richard Charnin has argued that "Sanders had 75 percent of the estimated 20 percent of voters who were disenfranchised," and that Sanders's weaker performance in states with electronic ballots suggested that votes had been stolen.

Few Sanders supporters endorse that theory, but in California, many are still lobbying the secretary of state (a Democrat) to count every provisional ballot, on the theory that they might otherwise be tossed. (Every election, thousands of ballots are spoiled for various reasons.) On the Bernie or Bust Facebook group's page Wednesday, an activist named Anthony Rodriguez reported that a direct action at a Los Angeles registrar's office had succeeded.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/06/22/californias-lengthy-vote-count-stokes-theories-that-sanders-actually-won-the-primary/

61 replies, 13897 views

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Reply California’s lengthy vote count stokes theories that Sanders actually won the primary (Original post)
J_J_ Jun 2016 OP
Peacetrain Jun 2016 #1
laserhaas Jun 2016 #3
anigbrowl Jun 2016 #19
laserhaas Jun 2016 #22
Dustlawyer Jun 2016 #33
Hortensis Jun 2016 #53
MyNameGoesHere Jun 2016 #36
J_J_ Jun 2016 #4
Agschmid Jun 2016 #2
JaneyVee Jun 2016 #5
alcibiades_mystery Jun 2016 #6
laserhaas Jun 2016 #23
Fast Walker 52 Jun 2016 #7
NurseJackie Jun 2016 #8
TwilightZone Jun 2016 #9
Lord Magus Jun 2016 #18
NYC Liberal Jun 2016 #10
lamp_shade Jun 2016 #11
COLGATE4 Jun 2016 #28
JoePhilly Jun 2016 #50
DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2016 #12
BlueMTexpat Jun 2016 #37
onenote Jun 2016 #13
JoePhilly Jun 2016 #14
Downtown Hound Jun 2016 #15
Post removed Jun 2016 #24
rjsquirrel Jun 2016 #29
laserhaas Jun 2016 #32
rjsquirrel Jun 2016 #35
Downtown Hound Jun 2016 #44
laserhaas Jun 2016 #57
Downtown Hound Jun 2016 #60
BainsBane Jun 2016 #16
laserhaas Jun 2016 #25
stevenleser Jun 2016 #34
cosmicone Jun 2016 #17
baldguy Jun 2016 #20
FSogol Jun 2016 #46
JoePhilly Jun 2016 #51
BlueCaliDem Jun 2016 #56
democrattotheend Jun 2016 #21
laserhaas Jun 2016 #26
rjsquirrel Jun 2016 #27
stonecutter357 Jun 2016 #30
liberal N proud Jun 2016 #31
LongtimeAZDem Jun 2016 #38
randome Jun 2016 #39
thesquanderer Jun 2016 #40
Spazito Jun 2016 #41
Adrahil Jun 2016 #42
yellowcanine Jun 2016 #43
Tarc Jun 2016 #45
LiberalFighter Jun 2016 #47
Tom Rinaldo Jun 2016 #48
Post removed Jun 2016 #49
still_one Jun 2016 #52
zappaman Jun 2016 #54
Orsino Jun 2016 #55
LongtimeAZDem Jun 2016 #58
onenote Jun 2016 #59
Dem2 Jun 2016 #61

Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 05:03 PM

1. Just let it go..

Seriously.. just let it go.. breathe.. just let it go

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Response to Peacetrain (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 05:07 PM

3. Uh..er nope .. l

 

..

Remain steadfast in the opine

Though it is moot..due to the powers that be

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Response to laserhaas (Reply #3)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 09:32 PM

19. Zzzz it always takes a long time to count the votes in California

 

We have crazy long ballots, proportional representation in some districts, and we vote on so many races and ballot propositions. All the time I've lived here the results take several weeks to completely process. There is no story here buddy.

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Response to laserhaas (Reply #3)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 08:36 AM

22. I just dont understan calling for vote gsmes

 

as being progress.

Im for her...no matter what she's doing or done ...has won.

What does that say about U.S.?

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Response to laserhaas (Reply #22)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 09:13 AM

33. The integrity of our voting system is more than worth a look into how it is performing, whether or

not it would change the outcome. Would you want Trump to win due to computerized election fraud?

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Response to Dustlawyer (Reply #33)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 01:18 PM

53. Hillary's 9% ahead in California, and continued

counting could raise or lower that slightly. What it won't do is change the results.

Bernie knew that when he admitted yesterday that he wasn't going to be the nominee and that he would be one of the speakers at the convention if the organizers wanted him to be and not if they did not, though he believed they would.

Sanders is not pinning any hopes or worries on some enormous election fraud theory, and so, absolutely knowing that he'd fight like a lion if it were true, probably his supporters should take a clue from him.

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Response to laserhaas (Reply #22)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 09:27 AM

36. It says we count votes and we

steadfastly support losing causes. Even to the detriment of one's self. Skating my friend, you are skating.

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Response to Peacetrain (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 05:08 PM

4. The Washington Post thought it interesting enough to write a story about this

 


If you are not interested, don't read it, and don't respond.

Simple.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 05:05 PM

2. "Theories" and that's about it.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 05:10 PM

5. Let us know how it turns out.

 

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 05:11 PM

6. Sane Sanders supporters know he simply lost

 

Why we report on the paranoids and lunatics is a mystery.

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #6)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 08:38 AM

23. Yeah..keep telling yourself that bull

 

You've gotten what you wished for

But ...don't ever think that's because we Berns were stupid

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 05:29 PM

7. I'm glad this is being mentioned and they are counting the actual votes

 

though even if Sanders won, it probably won't be by much and not enough to get the delegates he needs.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 05:32 PM

8. :-P

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 05:52 PM

9. "Sanders had 75 percent of the estimated 20 percent of voters who were disenfranchised"

That's about as nonsensical a claim as I've seen made the entire election cycle.

"Richard Charnin, a freelancer who specializes in "JFK conspiracy and systemic election fraud analysis"

Ah, that explains it.

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #9)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 09:07 PM

18. If gibberish is put in the form of statisitcs it will seem more credible to some.

"Some" meaning those who are at least somewhat inclined to give credence conspiracy theories, that is.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 05:55 PM

10. Count all the votes. Hillary still won and by a landslide.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 06:00 PM

11. ...

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Response to lamp_shade (Reply #11)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 08:46 AM

28. PERFECT! Thread winner! nt

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Response to lamp_shade (Reply #11)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 01:06 PM

50. +1

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 06:04 PM

12. Here is the official website. It is like watching paint dry.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #12)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 09:42 AM

37. And Hillary's lead in popular

votes remains .... I was going to post updates, but decided not to as it is too much like revisiting the primary, which is supposed to be against the new rules.

CA's voting/counting process has been like this for awhile. It's just that a LOT of people seem never to have participated in a Dem Presidential primary before - or weren't paying attention when they did. So. They. Just. Won't. Let. It. Go.

This little note at the SoS website explains the CA counting process: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/

Semi-Official Election Results

Election results are updated as often as new data is received from county elections offices after the polls close at 8:00 p.m. on Election Day. Many ballots are counted after Election Day. County elections officials have approximately one month to complete their extensive tallying, auditing, and certification work. They must report final certified results to the Secretary of State by July 8, 2016.


But ...

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 06:22 PM

13. Math still isn't some folks strong suit

Still looking for an explanation of the reference to "65,500" ballots in Los Angeles and "580,000" ballots statewide and, in particular, how 580,000 ballots out of 8.6 million is one eighth.

The real math: Clinton currently has a lead of around 445,000 over Sanders. There are 710,000 ballots not yet processed (including 199,000 mail in ballots and 481,000 provisional ballots). Let's assume that 75 percent of those 710,000 ballots (532,500) are Democratic presidential primary ballots (even though up until now, Democratic Presidential primary ballots represent only around 60 percent of all of the ballots processed). To overtake Clinton, Sanders would have to get around 488,750 of the 532,500 remaining Democratic Primary ballots. That's 92 percent. (Heck, even if 100 percent of the 710,000 unprocessed ballots are Democratic presidential primary ballots --which is definitely not the case) -- Sanders would have to get 81 percent of them.

Not. Going. To. Happen.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 06:36 PM

14. Ancient Alien Theorists think Bernie won CA!!!

There, fixed your OP title.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 07:03 PM

15. If you believe Sanders won, clap your hands!

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Response to Downtown Hound (Reply #15)


Response to Post removed (Reply #24)


Response to rjsquirrel (Reply #29)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 09:12 AM

32. No....that's your definition

 

And it is biased....coming from the side that benefited from the odd events.

Not once...did odd events bode into Bernie's favor

But he won our hearts

And should have won yours too....IMO

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Response to laserhaas (Reply #32)


Response to laserhaas (Reply #32)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:21 AM

44. Um, just so you know, I'm a Californian who voted for Bernie

But the man obviously lost. Time to accept reality and move on. The level with which some Bernie supporters are clinging to their delusions is becoming embarrassing.

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Response to Downtown Hound (Reply #44)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 02:03 PM

57. Whats your choice got anything to do with our right to know_

 

Moving on to the inevitable
has nothing to do with the reconciling the unacceptable!

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Response to laserhaas (Reply #57)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:49 PM

60. Who is denying you the right to know?

Polls showed Clinton ahead and the election bore that out. You can cling to fantasies about your persecution complex all you want, but Sanders lost CA fair and square.

Oh and just so you know, CA always takes a long time to count its votes. It's happened in just about every election we've had here. It called living in a state with nearly 40 million people. Since you are so concerned about election integrity, I would thing you'd appreciate the fact that they actually take the time to get it right.

Seriously dude, let it go. Sanders did not win. End of story. Your fantastical clinging to your delusions isn't going to change that, and enough of us out here actually live on planet Earth to where no amount of yelling at the clouds by you is going to make any difference.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 07:08 PM

16. The law gives the counties a month to count the ballots

And the Secretary of State's office updates the counts. http://vote.sos.ca.gov/unprocessed-ballots-status/
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/party/democratic/

The CTs require ignoring the information provided by the SoS, as though everything stopped on the night of June 7.

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #16)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 08:44 AM

25. Actually...The night before..when AP said it's done

 

Oops...sorry they made a mistake

But damage done

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Response to laserhaas (Reply #25)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 09:14 AM

34. If mistake = understated the margin of Hillary's victory by a few thousand votes, sure. nt

 

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 08:55 PM

17. This is getting tiresome in my opinion

 

I have moved on ....

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 10:16 PM

20. Trying to undermine the legitimacy of the Democratic nominee is a Republican tactic.

 

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Response to baldguy (Reply #20)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:46 AM

46. +1 n/t

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Response to baldguy (Reply #20)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 01:11 PM

51. +1

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Response to baldguy (Reply #20)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 01:29 PM

56. + 1000

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Wed Jun 22, 2016, 11:49 PM

21. I'm not optimistic that it will change the results

But I do support fighting to count the provisionals because I think it's important to fight for every legit vote (which many provisionals are) to count.

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Response to democrattotheend (Reply #21)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 08:44 AM

26. Good for you

 

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)


Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 09:04 AM

30. seems legit !

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 09:08 AM

31. I guess at this point, I don't really care.

It's not like it was going to change the nomination

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:01 AM

38. As of this morning (6/26/16)

Clinton has 2,582,052, Sanders has 2,137,532, and there are an estimated left to count. Sanders needs to get 83% of the remaining votes to win California.

The counting has averaged around 200,000 ballots per day since the election; at that rate, we should have a mathematical resolution by tomorrow evening, possibly tonight.

As to the counting of every provisional ballot, that is done anyway, by law. The "direct action" cited by the OP amounts to something like this:

ACTIVISTS: "You have to count every provisional ballot!"
SECRETARY of STATE: "We do."
ACTIVISTS: "Yay! We did it!"

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #38)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:05 AM

39. I know. Declaring "Victory" for a completely meaningless gesture.

 

Aren't they cute?

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:15 AM

40. Unless Sanders won something like 75 to 25, it wouldn't matter regardless.

The only shot he had was if he walked away from the primary process with the majority of pledged candidates, and about 75% is what he would have needed to accomplish that. Anything short of that, he simply lost. Since there's no way he got anything like 75%, what real benefit is there in continuing to argue about just how much did he lose by?

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:47 AM

41. "Few Sanders supporters endorse that theory..."

that's a good thing!

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 10:55 AM

42. Umm... Sanders has been slightly losing the vote since the election was called.

 

The margin has narrowed, and will continue to do so, but Sanders has actually LOST a little ground in terms of the vote margin since the election was called.

To win, he'd need to win something like 450,000 of the remaining 680,000 outstanding ballots. Yeah... good luck with that!

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:07 AM

43. Don't understand the reasoning here, Clinton is gaining votes on Sanders

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:43 AM

45. "Don't keep fighting the last Democratic presidential primary"


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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 11:50 AM

47. What are the odds that the outcome will change?

Even though the outcome won't change the votes still need to be counted.

Election Results on June 12
Clinton : 2,128,194
Sanders: 1,653,416
Others : 36,103
--Total : 3,817,713

Election Results on June 23
Clinton : 2,582,052 (+ 453,858)
Sanders: 2,137,532 (+ 484,116)
Others: 43,045
--Total: 4,762,629 (Increased 944,916)


Unprocessed ballots as of June 13
1,506,952 -- Mail
717,862 -- Provisional
78,825 -- Other
2,303,639 -- Totals

Unprocessed ballots as of June 22
176,546 -- Mail
474,233 -- Provisional
29,699 -- Other
680,478 -- Totals


Total processed since June 13
1,330,406 -- Mail
243,629 -- Provisional
49,126 -- Other
1,623,161 -- Totals (678,245 not included in Democratic count)

June 12
1,741,297 -- Republican
[font color="white"]x,x[/font]32,399 -- American Independent
[font color="white"]x,x[/font]10,943 -- Green
[font color="white"]x,x[/font]22,971 -- Libertarian
[font color="white"]x,xx[/font]3,847 -- Peace and Freedom
1,811,457 -- Totals not including Dems

June 22
2,119,442 -- Republican
[font color="white"]x,x[/font]38,916 -- American Independent
[font color="white"]x,x[/font]13,607 -- Green
[font color="white"]x,x[/font]28,709 -- Libertarian
[font color="white"]x,xx[/font]4,669 -- Peace and Freedom
2,205,343 -- Totals not including Dems


393,886 -- Votes since June 12 not including Dems

284,359 -- Not included Numbers are totals of all 58 counties.

Ratio of the 1,623,161 processed votes
58.2% -- Democratic ballots
23.3% -- Republican ballots
00.9% -- Third Party ballots
17.5% -- Not included


60% of the remaining 680,478 unprocessed ballots is 408,286.
Rough split of remaining votes without knowing who benefits county by county.
Clinton: 329,351 -- Sanders: 351,127

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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #47)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 12:07 PM

48. It already has changed the outcome

Sanders has gained additional delegate as the counting proceeds. It is about the division of delegates with proportional distribution systems, and CD based delegate victories, like California uses.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)


Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 01:12 PM

52. This is the second OP you have done implying that California does not count provisional ballots

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2214490

I know this may be hard to believe but CALIFORNIA COUNTS ALL THEIR BALLOTS, including provisional

ones, regardless of the margin.

I am really getting tired of these implications about my state.

For anyone who cares to see what the current vote is all they have to do is go to the SOS site to see the most current numbers:

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/party/democratic/

California counts all its ballots, including provisional ones:

Q: Are vote-by-mail and provisional ballots always counted – even in "landslide" elections?

A: Yes, every valid ballot returned to county elections officials by 8:00 p.m. on election day is counted in every election, regardless of the ballot type or the margin in any particular contest.

http://www.sos.ca.gov/administration/news-releases-and-advisories/2014-news-releases-and-advisories/db14-090/

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voting-resources/provisional-voting/

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-status/

The provisional ballots would be counted regardless if a candidate concedes or not. I don't know how other states do it, but this is how California does it.

Nothing is being hidden from the public. July 9 are when the final results will be completed:

http://www.sos.ca.gov/administration/news-releases-and-advisories/2016-news-releases-and-advisories/vote-count-update/

"Provisional Ballots

In California, provisional ballots serve as a fail-safe method of ensuring all voters who show up to the polls can cast a ballot.

All provisional ballots are carefully checked by county elections officials to confirm that the person who voted provisionally is both registered and that they did not cast a ballot by mail or at another polling location on Election Day."

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Response to still_one (Reply #52)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 01:24 PM

54. +1000 n/t

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 01:29 PM

55. Theories about who won aren't useful when the ballots haven't all been counted.

I'm not anticipating anything even close to a flip, but counting ballots ought to be the default, and no victory ought to be declared until one winner becomes mathematically inevitable.

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Response to Orsino (Reply #55)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 04:31 PM

58. You're right about a state primary victory for California

since Sanders could still theoretically win it if he gets 83% of all remaining ballots.

But that's really all moot. It is mathematically impossible to win enough delegates to win the pledged delegate majority, which he will lose by at least 370 delegates.

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Response to Orsino (Reply #55)

Thu Jun 23, 2016, 04:39 PM

59. No victory is officially declared until the votes are counted and certified

that's pretty much standard operating procedure everywhere.

In terms of what the media does -- they will "call" elections for one candidate or another when they have enough information to make that call. While there are rare instances where they get the call wrong, they usually are right and nothing and no one is going to stop the practice.

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Response to J_J_ (Original post)

Fri Jun 24, 2016, 12:16 AM

61. 441,355 vote lead for Clinton now

It's virtually unchanged since election day and they're nearing completion.

Not sure why you're obsessing over this still.

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