2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhen is Nate Silver gonna Start Publishing the 538 Electoral Map?
I took a lot of solace from it in the autumn of '12, when the media (and not just Fox) were blowing smoke about "Romneymentum" and such shit. In the end, Silver nailed every state and made a lot of pundits look very dumb!
TexasBushwhacker
(20,159 posts)I think the possibilty of A Trump Dump is very real.
Yavin4
(35,427 posts)Trexit.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)only really blew one big state
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)Each of Trump's wins.
He was no smarter than anyone else out there.
ashtonelijah
(340 posts)Nt
Stallion
(6,474 posts)now it may call into question the calculations he used but I think it had a lot to do with the fractured Democratic primary electorate where Clinton could lose a state despite winning registered Democrats by 10-12s because of large numbers of Independents voting in Democratic primaries
uponit7771
(90,323 posts)tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)He was my savior during the 2012 election when I would start to lose my mind over "unskewed polls".
brooklynite
(94,452 posts)NEDem
(1,513 posts)and everybody missed Michigan.
pnwmom
(108,972 posts)LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)Your bliss is showing...
Stallion
(6,474 posts)they include about 6 recognized experts like Sabato and Cook to fill in their electoral maps
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Orrex
(63,185 posts)Her Sister
(6,444 posts)Makes sense to wait to have a complete picture of where and what is where or what!