Any thoughts on the primary to replace Steve Israel (NY-03)?

[democrattotheend]

I hope this is okay to post in here now that it's not just about the presidential primaries.

As you may know Steve Israel, who represents New York's 3rd Congressional District, is retiring, and I am having a hard time choosing between his potential replacements. I would appreciate if anyone familiar with the race or any of the candidates could share some insight. Here is my take so far on the candidates.

Jonathan Clarke
He seems to be the most progressive of the candidates, and I would prefer to give my vote to a fellow Bernie supporter. As far as I can tell, Clarke is the only one who fits that bill. I also like that he has dedicated a portion of his law practice to pro-bono, which is pretty rare for a small firm on Long Island.

My main hesitation is that he doesn't really have much of a campaign structure, and he is such a long shot that voting for him almost feels like voting Green in the general. I really wish we had instant runoff voting. If so, I would rank him #1. I may vote for him as a show of support, but if it's close between some of the other candidates I might vote for one of the others (see below).

Anna Kaplan
Strong second choice, and I may end up voting for her because she is my favorite of the candidates whom I think has a realistic shot. She has an interesting personal story (Jewish, fled Iran at age 13 due to persecution). She would be the first Iranian-American elected to Congress. She is endorsed by EMILY's List and NOW, and I have gotten flyers from her emphasizing a higher minimum wage, paid family leave, and equal pay for women. She supported Hillary in the primary, which is a bit of a negative for me, but not a dealbreaker. The way I see it is that Hillary had endorsements from Democratic elected officials all over the ideological spectrum, so it doesn't really say much about a candidate. But if a candidate supported Bernie, it almost guarantees they will be progressive and willing to buck the grain.

Jon Kaiman
He seems to have the most union endorsements, which is a plus for me. On the other hand, he is very focused on seniors, which is not necessarily a bad thing, but as a 30-something I want to make sure he is also committed to representing all age groups. Hard to tell how progressive or not he is.

Steve Schwartz
Endorsed by Rep. Israel. Doesn't seem that progressive on paper but he did say some things I liked at the League of Women Voters forum. I just read that he was endorsed by SEIU 1199 - that is a positive for me.

Tom Suozzi
He has been around for a while in New York politics, and just feels too establishment for me. But I am open to being persuaded otherwise.

I would really appreciate additional insight into any of these candidates, including who is favored to win and whether it is expected to be close.

[TreasonousBastard]

1. I've got my own problems in NY 1, but...

while not an expert in that part of LI, I'd say Suozzi is a professional politician and you get what you pay for. Not a bad guy, but just a little too into the system. He's been around since forever.

Don't know much about the rest of them, but I have met Israel, and he's a pretty good guy, so if he's for Schwartz, that would be enough for me, barring anything otherwise overwhelming. If Kaplan's serious about family leave that's a big plus, and more realistic than the minimum wage bump.

NY unions, btw, are more political than politicians, so I rarely give their opinions much credence-- just too many backroom deals in play.

Now, here in NY 1, Tim Bishop lost two years ago to one of the sneakiest scumbags now in the house and it's just the right time to get rid of him. BUT, just when we thought we had an almost perfect candidate, this other guy pops up and we have a primary.

It gets weirder, though. Anna Throne-Holst did, by everyone's account, a great job as Southampton Supervisor, and the other jobs she had before that. She's endorsed by Bishop and Israel.

But, here's the rub, even though everyone says she's great, every Southampton and Brookhaven elected Dem is endorsing the other guy. Even people I personally know who I never thought would. And nobody's talking about why.

Mysteries, mysteries...

[democrattotheend]

2. It depends on the union

I value some unions' opinion more than others. But yes, I agree that unions, like most establishment groups, often play it safe to a degree in terms of whom they endorse (not wanting to risk backing a loser).

[La Lioness Priyanka]

3. i would go with Anna Kaplan. We need more female representation in congress

so that issues that have to do with women are prioritized, these issues are frequently neglected due to the current composition of congress.

Jonathan Clarke seems to have no support structure to get elected.

[democrattotheend]

4. That's my concern about Clarke as well

I have no problem voting for long shot candidates, but he seems like a no-shot candidate. I wish he had gotten more attention from the netroots early on.

And I agree that we need more women in Congress, especially women who emphasize women's rights.

[brooklynite]

5. FWIW - this is considered a Tossup opportunity for a Republican pickup...

Part of the district is in Red Nassau County. Consider your choice in the context of who can win a predominantly centrist electorate.

[democrattotheend]

6. I was wondering about that

It seems Rep. Israel hasn't had a tough race in a while, but I do know that my grandparents' friend ran in the predecessor to this district and didn't win because Nassau was too Republican back then. I think it has changed somewhat since though. In my experience people in Nassau are more likely to be Democrats than people in Suffolk, and the district also includes a swath of Suffolk.

Do you think Anna Kaplan is a good choice in terms of electability?

[brooklynite]

7. She looks like a serious candidate, but as a rule I stay out of Primaries...

...when I'm not in the district.

[democrattotheend]

8. Update - definitely not voting for Suozzi

I wasn't too inclined toward him to begin with, but I wasn't sure why. I just talked to my boss and he said Suozzi wanted to repeal some of the laws that prevent New York caterers from stealing workers' tips. I probably knew that and leaned against Suozzi for that reason and just forgot. My boss thinks Suozzi is a closet Republican.

[CK_John]

9. IMO, you seem to be unable to make a choice and you're looking for

the candidate least likely to win, so that you can say well I didn't vote for him/her.

[democrattotheend]

10. What????

I think you completely misunderstood my post.

What I was saying is that Jonathan Clarke is my first choice in terms of who I would pick to be a Congressman, but I am hesitant to vote for him because I don't think he has a chance in the primary, and I am not confident he has a good enough campaign organization for the general. So voting for him feels like a throwaway. If he were running against one other candidate I would probably pick him to send a message, but since there are 4 other candidates and it's a swing district I want to vote for someone who has a chance.

After talking to my boss and remember why I really don't want Suozzi, I am pretty sure I am going to vote for Anna Kaplan, although I may give Steve Schwartz a second look.