2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumQuinnipiac Poll: Hillary leading by 2 percentage points.
"Democrat Hillary Clinton has 42 percent to Republican Donald Trump's 40 percent - too close to call - as American voters say neither candidate would be a good president and that the campaign has increased hatred and prejudice in the nation, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today."
Particularly noteworthy was this poll result: "But voters say 45 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy" Now why on earth would voters say that?
from:
http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2363
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GeorgiaPeanuts
(2,353 posts)That is all I have to say on the matter. 
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)
brush
(53,776 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)brush
(53,776 posts)GeorgiaPeanuts
(2,353 posts)Latinos are not just Mexicans. I'm not one to want to start "unskewing" polls like Romney, Rove, et al were doing in 2012 and ultimately lost big when they thought they were going to win.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)...who have some tendency to be right-wing (see, for example, Rubio, Marco, and Cruz, Ted).
LiberalFighter
(50,912 posts)Too many factors are breaking up that stronghold for the Republicans.
brush
(53,776 posts)Come on. Who believes a third of Latinos favor a blowhard who promises to build a border wall and export 11 million people, who he calls criminals and rapists, behind it?
As progressives we should all know better than that crappola.
bklyncowgirl
(7,960 posts)I wouldn't doubt that he has some Hispanic support. People whose families have been in the country a long time and who have been hurt by offshoring and competition from illegal immigrants could very well support him. People who have family members in the shadows of course will vote for Hillary come hell or high water.
brush
(53,776 posts)11 million people who may be family members and friends.
I don't believe that for a second.
GeorgiaPeanuts
(2,353 posts)History has shown that is a poor strategy, perfectly illustrated by the decisive defeat of Romney in 2012 when he was certain he would win.
brush
(53,776 posts)Quinnipiac poll results should be taken with a tablespoonful of salt as well.
Ace Rothstein
(3,161 posts)Sometimes a single poll can just be a bad poll or maybe this is the first poll in a swing back towards Trump. Let's see what the next few polls show as well as the follow up Quinnipiac poll to see if this means anything.
bklyncowgirl
(7,960 posts)Latinos include Cubans, Puerto Ricans and families of Mexican and South American descent which have been in the country for generations, in some cases centuries. Their friends and family members do not face deportation. Like all Americans they face competition for jobs from new immigrants and the loss of jobs due to outsourcing. Some, frankly, may be very socially conservative and not ready for a female president.
I tend to doubt that it's really as high as a third; any members of the groups that I mentioned above are turned off by Trump's racist rhetoric and more recent immigrants even more so. Still the smug complacency of the Democratic Party's "Demography is Destiny" could reach up and smack us in the face.
Let's be honest. Trump is a clown. This should not even be close--yet somehow it is.
brush
(53,776 posts)We seem to be in agreement. Trump is a bombastic clown and I also doubt his likeability among Latino Americans is anywhere near 33%.
Pls don't be fooled. Quinnipiac is a right-leaning poll trying to spread doubt and a horserace narrative.
Just as both you and I doubt Trump's true poll numbers among Latinos is 33%, we should also doubt that the fake university scammer, fake vitamin seller, fake resort builder, grainy steak seller, and on and on and on, is anywhere close to within two points of Clinton nationally.
bklyncowgirl
(7,960 posts)Clinton loyalists who smugly dismiss these polls as outliers and GOP influenced do so at their own risk. I don't know about 33% but Hispanics like other voters are not a block of people who can be blithely assumed to vote the way you want based on ethnicity. People are more complex than that.
Trump is a clown but like it or not he has a message that resonates with many people. Lots of people have dismissed the fake university scammer, fake vitamin seller, fake resort builder, grainy steak seller as you call him. Jeb Bush dismissed him, Ted Cruz dismissed him, Marco Rubio dismissed him. Where are they now?
There are quite a few people who don't like Trump but who also can't stand Hillary. She has her work cut out for her to win the people who do not like her--and believe me there are many out there--over.
brush
(53,776 posts)high teens to twenty percent or so range. I have no argument with your points, except for the race being close.
And Trump won against other repugs and only with republican voters. Quite a difference from the national electorate.
No one is taking Trump for granted but he's much weaker than Romney as a candidate, and the Obama coalition — women, gays, African Americans, Latino Americans, Asian Americans, sensible progressive whites who don't want Trump appointing the next SCOTUS justice, Native Americans, sensible left-leaning and moderate independents who also don't want Trump appointing the next SCOTUS justice, handicapped Americans and all the other demographic groups Trump has offended — will defeat him just as we did Romney and McCain.
We outnumber Trump's racist base and we know what the task is at hand. We are not taking Trump's poor candidacy for granted but we also are not trembling in fear and doubt either. He will lose spectacularly. Here's a link for the ass-whipping he's taking in the all-important swing states: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512225916
Hope you're along for the ride.
(I do understand that Latino Americans come in all political stripes, as do we African Americans, but I suspect, as with most African Americans, most Latinos know whose policies are most beneficial when it comes time to vote).
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)They've been off too many times to count, but suspiciously almost always in favor of Republicans. Fancy that.
DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)Democrats as a basis for any poll.
Response to BlueCaliDem (Reply #3)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)
bemildred
(90,061 posts)WASHINGTON, June 29 (UPI) -- A new national Quinnipiac University poll shows that the race for the White House is in a virtual deadlock.
Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump by 2 percentage points, 42 percent to 40 percent, the difference within the margin of error for the poll at 2.4 percent.
When third-party candidates are included, Clinton leads Trump 39 percent to 37 percent, with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 4 percent.
The findings contrast starkly with other recent polls, which showed Clinton widening her lead over the presumptive GOP
nominee.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/06/29/New-national-poll-has-Clinton-Trump-in-virtual-tie/6071467207204/?spt=sec&or=tn
bemildred
(90,061 posts)When it comes to television advertising, Hillary Clinton is blowing Donald Trump out of the water.
Clinton and her allies have outspent Trump forces by more than $20 million in June on television advertising, according to an ABC News analysis of CMAG/Kantar Media data.
For every $1 that Trump and his allies spent on television in June, Clinton and her allies spent $12. The presumptive Democratic nominee and her main super PAC, which can raise unlimited funds, doled out about $23 million during the month of June.
Almost 9 in every 10 dollars spent on television in June were spent boosting Clinton’s campaign. Six in 10 dollars came from Priorities USA Action, the Clinton-backing super PAC, with another quarter of spending coming from Clinton’s campaign itself.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-outspends-donald-trump-20-million-television/story?id=40216892
Response to bemildred (Reply #10)
Post removed
yourpaljoey
(2,166 posts)For a minute I thought Trump was intentionally
sinking his own ship.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)This does suggest the Clinton camp is taking him seriously though, which could be a good thing, depending on what they decide to do about it.
This is a voting against election, which is why the fecklessness of the candidates is not much of an issue, howsomever we try, voters are not voting for the person, but for what that person is saying, the unmentionable subjects they are mentioning, Trump and Sanders, and if Clinton wants to win she is going to have to mention them too.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)bettyellen
(47,209 posts)
stopbush
(24,396 posts)Romney got 27% of the Latino vote in 2012. Does anyone believe that the overtly racist Trump is pulling 6 points higher than Romney did?
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)They are not a bad pollster, but generally speaking, they will lean to the GOP. So, expect them to be on the lower end of the spread throughout the GE cycle.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)the answer to this question:
"But voters say 45 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy" Now why on earth would voters say that?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Herman4747
(1,825 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Rhetorical question.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)whatthehey
(3,660 posts)The number #1 identifying trait of Trump supporters is not wealth or conservatism or even racism or stupidity. It is authoritarianism. And once an authoritarian has latched onto a Glorious Leader there is no nuance, no factchecking, no recall of "flip-flops". The Leader speaks and is always right and true regardless of what he said yesterday, and so any question about The Leader is answered at the strongest positive option available. It's simply that his fanbase, true to their nature, believes The Leader can do no wrong, while the motley coalition of liberals, centrists, pragmatists, etc who support Clinton are not so given to blind faith. It's not that they cannot be wrong, or stupid, or jaded, but they are far less likely to be credulous cannon fodder than his fans.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)That obvious note aside, one doesn't need to be a supporter to understand that 25 years of constant media and GOP nonsense targeted at Hillary Clinton has helped contribute to the belief by some that she isn't honest and trustworthy.
It's not complicated.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)up one morning and say, "Let's have some fun. Why not dig into the activities of these two people?"
Did neither Bill or Hillary do anything on there own to cause such a reaction? I hear your claim often but no one has explained how it happened that make any sense with any evidence.
To me, it is somewhat complicated.
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)Can't prove a negative, so I have no idea what you think would constitute evidence. "Hey, let's see some evidence for something that doesn't exist."
In case you haven't been paying attention for the past forty of so years, the only "evidence" the GOP needs to scrutinize Democrats is the D behind their names. This is nothing new and it's not something that is exclusive to the Clintons. Just ask the president.
Here's a better idea. Since you're so convinced that they've been doing something to cause the scrutiny, where's your evidence that proves that all of these silly investigations were justified? No one else has been able to find any, and they've spent tens of millions of dollars and tens of thousands of hours trying.
Guess you know better. Well..let's see it.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)Tell me how my question in any way indicates I'm "convinced that they're doing something"? You have no basis to make that accusation but you chose to do it regardless.
If this was your contribution to intelligent discussion, please do so with someone interested in what you arrogantly have to say. I'm not interested in your mindset.
Response to Herman4747 (Reply #19)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
MyNameGoesHere
(7,638 posts)who are you supporting while being a member here?
David__77
(23,372 posts)I'm not saying that I agree with that; I'm saying that I understand it.
Trump has, I think, gotten into "hot water" for various things he has said. In my opinion, some of Clinton's statements sound like typical politician-speak. I can understand the person getting into trouble coming off as more authentic. I don't think that means that people will go for someone simply because they find that person to be more honest and trustworthy.
OnDoutside
(19,956 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)When you consider that Quinnipiac and even PPP have really not been doing that good of a job this election cycle. I don't off-hand recall where, but Quinnipiac's methodology of polling was a bit too dismissive of minority voting. They seemed to be saying that minority voting will be down this election cycle by 2%, while white voters voting will be up 2% this election cycle. Also buried within that same Q-poll, it showed that at the time before the primaries were over that Bernie was ONLY up by either 2 or 4 % points over Trump in Ohio.
I'm one who puts a bit more weight into Electoral College numbers, which helps me to not get too up or too down with day-to-day polling this early on because we still have yet to have debates and people are not really paying enough attention yet to the election etc., but when the polling seen does not have a decent methodology to their polling I REALLY try to stay away from that pollster--even if they're pro the person I'm supporting.
LiberalFighter
(50,912 posts)that the majority is becoming less of a majority.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)ON ...
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Or at least that's the only explanation I can think of for them projecting that literally for the first time since blacks got the vote we'll be seeing a whiter electorate than in the previous presidential race.
writes3000
(4,734 posts)
Kingofalldems
(38,454 posts)Trump supporters should be BLUE about this one.
hollowdweller
(4,229 posts)Trump is just making it up as he goes along and seeing what sticks. Maybe his anti free trade speech gave him a bump?
I think if Clinton can somehow close the trust gap, then she has nothing to worry about, her agenda is actually really good but people don't take her seriously based on some of her past positions and associations. Perhaps the Clinton campaign should play up the fact that Trump, a lot of his schwag is made overseas to undermine his credibility on the issue.
I do think that it's going to get weird since Trump is sort of staking out almost anti republican positions on some issues. Will they help him get more votes or will they cut off his funding from big donors and help from GOP surrogates
I sort of flash back to Bush VS Gore and the debates. Gore would mention some sort of dem idea and Bush would say he was for it too. Gore was less likeable than Bush and the Bush campaign worked that. Also at least here in WV free trade esp the steel industry really hurt Gore here and in most of the rust belt.
Hillary needs to make sure that she comes out on top in the likeable category and credible. I think this election may come down more to voters gut instincts after the debates.
Txbluedog
(1,128 posts)Democrats cannot take anything for granted come Election Day, a massive turnout is the only way to go
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Have a great day.
P.S.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)-Every poll is a data point. Best to look at the mean or median of current polls.
-Beware of folks with agendas.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)
What a bunch of pathetic pukes. Thanks for sharing.
Her Sister
(6,444 posts)This is too easy!
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)The one in a dozen polls that are outliers always give the cockwomble and his redhats hope.
Even these outliers will start to go by the wayside and we'll be inundated with the unskewing soon.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)
TheFarseer
(9,322 posts)Not sure I believe Gary Johnson and Jill Stein will end up with nearly double digit support. Anecdotally, my very Republican dad DID NOT like Trump, but now that he has the nomination, he has convinced himself that Trump is exactly what the country needs right now. Maybe the rank and file are going to support him even if George Will types aren't.
kcjohn1
(751 posts)Not promising when we supposedly have bad cycle for Trump where the all rats are jumping ship and Clinton is outspending 100 to 1 in ads.
andym
(5,443 posts)Given other poll data, it is probably an outlier, BUT the bad press Hillary has received over the last 2-3 years needs to be overcome if we want her to win a landslide with coat tails. A benign end to the FBI investigation and a successful convention will help both. A dynamic VP could help as well.
A little historical anecdote: McGovern really wanted Ted Kennedy as his VP-- polling showed that ticket to be even with Nixon at the time of the convention. But instead he got the Eagleton fiasco. So sometimes the VP counts. Another candidate to ask about the VP's importance is McCain who chose very poorly.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)That fully explains why Trump does better in their poll than in most others.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)Yeah, your statement pretty much says it all for me
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)
wiggs
(7,812 posts)journalists and voters should be asking....and answering. Journalists and pundits spend decades reporting what the gop says about the clintons, then are surprised that their marketing campaign worked? No one in the media reports that media reporting may have something to do with it. They would like to keep on reporting about the drama, the horse race, the ups and downs. They don't want to admit their role in creating perception among the electorate. They don't want to drill down to facts, perhaps debunking false memes in the process. If they did that, they wouldn't appear 'balanced'.
I hear a dozen times a day that voters don't trust Hillary....that her unfavorables are high. I don't doubt that some here don't have a high opinion of Hillary for their own reasons....but this national perception is one created without much foundation, IMO.
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)538 gives them an A-
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
I've mentioned numerous times that historic unfavorables on both candidates are a cause for concern
you can't dismiss the facts
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-distaste-for-both-trump-and-clinton-is-record-breaking/
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)The poll was seven consecutive days, June 21–27.
That is too long.
Typically around 3 days is the norm.
But, that stat on white voters indicates a Democratic shift of +7.
The black vote is D+90. In 2012, the margin was D+87.
The Hispanic vote is reported as D+17. In 2012, Barack Obama won them by +44.
In holding same-party support: Hillary Clinton is at D+86 while Donald Trump is at R+78. That points to Hillary Clinton better performing by +8.
The Hispanic numbers don’t make sense. If shifts are happening with whites, and also with blacks, they’re also going to happen with Hispanics.
