2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThanks Obama....
The 2016 election is already decided. History says Hillary Clinton wins.
If history is any guide, the outcome of this years presidential election has already been decided.
With the exception of 2000, the result of every presidential election since, and including, 1980 has been determined before the general election even officially began. In fact, most of these elections were effectively decided by this point in the cycle.
There is no reason to think that this year, as crazy as it has been, will be different. Spoiler alert: Hillary Clinton wins.
The single best predictor of the electoral outcome is the job approval of the incumbent president even one whos not on the ballot. In four of the five elections since 1980 when the incumbent presidents job approval was at or above 50 percent, that party held the White House. The outlier was 2000, when President Bill Clinton enjoyed a 57 percent job approval rating in October yet Al Gore lost to George W. Bush.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-2016-election-is-already-decided-history-says-hillary-clinton-wins/2016/06/28/8c6e682e-3d49-11e6-80bc-d06711fd2125_story.html
liberal N proud
(60,334 posts)So you could say it still holds.
tonyt53
(5,737 posts)In fact, that hurt him more than anything.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)The thing is, Bush could have also easily won without stealing Florida. A few more people deciding to turn out to vote for Bush and he would have been the legitimate winner. Its because Gore was a painfully incompetent campaigner, trying to appeal to the "family values" crowd, for some completely unknown reason. In many ways, he was trying to out republican the republican candidate. No wonder so many people decided Bush and Gore were both the same and went with Nader.
It would appear that Clinton is hellbent on not making the same mistakes. She is clinging tight to the popular incumbent democratic president and running as a democrat, not as a Republican-Lite. She is also bashing the living shit out of the republicans instead of just trying to kind of ignore them or believing that she is above doing that.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Well, WE like you enormously. You're right, NCTraveler. Thanks so very, very much, President Obama, for your very competent and reassuring leadership.