Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
Wed Jun 29, 2016, 01:42 PM Jun 2016

Thanks Obama....

The 2016 election is already decided. History says Hillary Clinton wins.

If history is any guide, the outcome of this year’s presidential election has already been decided.

With the exception of 2000, the result of every presidential election since, and including, 1980 has been determined before the general election even officially began. In fact, most of these elections were effectively decided by this point in the cycle.

There is no reason to think that this year, as crazy as it has been, will be different. Spoiler alert: Hillary Clinton wins.

The single best predictor of the electoral outcome is the job approval of the incumbent president — even one who’s not on the ballot. In four of the five elections since 1980 when the incumbent president’s job approval was at or above 50 percent, that party held the White House. The outlier was 2000, when President Bill Clinton enjoyed a 57 percent job approval rating in October yet Al Gore “lost” to George W. Bush.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-2016-election-is-already-decided-history-says-hillary-clinton-wins/2016/06/28/8c6e682e-3d49-11e6-80bc-d06711fd2125_story.html

5 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Thanks Obama.... (Original Post) NCTraveler Jun 2016 OP
Psst: 2000 was stolen by the bush regime liberal N proud Jun 2016 #1
Likely, but Gore didn't help himself by distancing himself from Bill. tonyt53 Jun 2016 #2
Yeah, that was a stupid decision Doctor Jack Jun 2016 #5
Lol. Reminds me of Obama's thank-you note to Congress. Hortensis Jun 2016 #3
K & R! athena Jun 2016 #4
 

tonyt53

(5,737 posts)
2. Likely, but Gore didn't help himself by distancing himself from Bill.
Wed Jun 29, 2016, 01:57 PM
Jun 2016

In fact, that hurt him more than anything.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
5. Yeah, that was a stupid decision
Wed Jun 29, 2016, 09:49 PM
Jun 2016

The thing is, Bush could have also easily won without stealing Florida. A few more people deciding to turn out to vote for Bush and he would have been the legitimate winner. Its because Gore was a painfully incompetent campaigner, trying to appeal to the "family values" crowd, for some completely unknown reason. In many ways, he was trying to out republican the republican candidate. No wonder so many people decided Bush and Gore were both the same and went with Nader.

It would appear that Clinton is hellbent on not making the same mistakes. She is clinging tight to the popular incumbent democratic president and running as a democrat, not as a Republican-Lite. She is also bashing the living shit out of the republicans instead of just trying to kind of ignore them or believing that she is above doing that.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
3. Lol. Reminds me of Obama's thank-you note to Congress.
Wed Jun 29, 2016, 08:27 PM
Jun 2016
"Thank you, congress, for spending eight years wishing you could replace me with a Republican," as Trump's picture appeared on screen. "Or, to put it another way, how do you like me now?"

Well, WE like you enormously. You're right, NCTraveler. Thanks so very, very much, President Obama, for your very competent and reassuring leadership.
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Thanks Obama....