538 launches 2016 Election Forecast: Hillary 80.6% chance of winning; Trump 19.3%

[morningfog]

538 has Hillary as likely to win 353 EVs.

Good stuff at link: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[MFM008]

1. Even though he said

Our Seahawks would win super bowl 49...we did not.
And he said Trump would never be the nominee.....
It's still good to see.

[Adrahil]

7. His Trump prediction was not his model's projection.

And his models are probability based. So an 80% likely of a win, mean's a 20% (1 in 5) chance of losing. Work hard, everyone!

[Koinos]

2. K & R

[Surya Gayatri]

3. Massive K & R. Thanks for posting.

[KMOD]

4. Wow.

I would love to see Texas turn blue though, as well.

[morningfog]

6. It looks within striking distance. We need 50 state strategy.

[tallahasseedem]

10. What's so exciting about a 50 state strategy...

this year is that it looks like we have a very legitimate shot at gaining seats!

[Stellar]

5. Good for Hillary! nt

[NastyRiffraff]

8. Excellent news!

but we need to bring those numbers up by about 10 points.

[tallahasseedem]

9. Thank you for sharing!

We need to keep fighting to get the down ballots voted in as well!

[Vattel]

11. I would put the probability of a Clinton win at 98%