The math is with Hillary: She’s surging in the polls — and many Republicans are in denial

[Alfresco]

http://www.salon.com/2016/06/30/the_math_is_with_hillary_she_surging_in_the_polls_and_many_republicans_are_in_denial/

Thursday, Jun 30, 2016 05:59 AM EDT
Gary Legum

On Wednesday, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com released his first general election forecast, which shows Hillary Clinton with an 80 percent chance of beating Donald Trump. If you like numbers and you know Silver’s track record in presidential elections, this should be something of a relief.

Silver’s model gives Trump a 19 percent chance of winning the election. Right now he has Clinton taking the popular vote by seven points and absolutely crushing Trump in the Electoral College, 353 to 184. Considering that the polarized electorate means each candidate is starting out with a floor of probably 50 million or so votes, these numbers indicate Trump is performing no better against Clinton than a rock covered in orange spray paint would. The GOP’s only chance might be to toss him overboard at the convention and nominate an inanimate carbon rod.

If nothing else, the reduction of this election to the numbers for each candidate reminds us that, for all the sturm und drang up to this point, this election is, like every other presidential election, a fight between two candidates and two competing visions. (As much as Trump can be said to have any vision anyway.) For anyone exhausted by the screaming and unpleasantness of this Democratic primary campaign, it is nice to now catch our breath beneath the solid foundation of math before the conventions and the official general election kick-off sprays us all with its stink. Because Trump’s ego isn’t going to take losing very well. And if the NRA’s new anti-Clinton ad is any indication, neither are the lunatics who have thrown their support behind him.

[MohRokTah]

1. Hopefully, the GOP will stay in denial. eom

[HockeyMom]

2. Oh, you cannot believe how much his supporters are denial

When they are bragging that New York (his Home State), and New Jersey (Christie VP) are in the bag, that isn't just denial. That is certifiable.

[PJMcK]

3. So, what else is new?

Republicans don't do facts.

I love this line: "...these numbers indicate Trump is performing no better against Clinton than a rock covered in orange spray paint would."

[itsrobert]

4. Hi

[Alfresco]

5. Howdy

I like the hat.

[ailsagirl]

6. That's what I thought, then someone posted a Rasmussen poll

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512227349

Why?

[MoonRiver]

7. Is the primary over?

Makes me wonder...

[Thinkingabout]

8. No more primaries are scheduled, now Hilary is presumptive nominee and has

More than enough delegates to be the nominee on the first vote of the convention.

[MoonRiver]

11. That's what I, and every other sentient human being, thought!

So many farces, so little time!

[comradebillyboy]

9. When did Salon begin allowing positive articles about Hillary?

They have been as hostile to her as any right wing blog I've seen this year.

[1StrongBlackMan]

10. Posted to for later.

[Downtown Hound]

12. Republicans in denial is pretty much standard for them

It's when they have rare and fleeting moments of sanity that warrants attention. Not that that happens very often.

[Scurrilous]

13. K & R

[Xipe Totec]

14. Actually, one of them is in Denali nt

[Doctor Jack]

15. We seem to be in a slight downward trend in the ebb and flow of the polls

And the worry trolls and handwringers will be out in force in the coming days. But that always seems to be the trend in early July. Not much is happening, people are planning their 4th of July vacations, and politics isn't in the front of their minds. But to some, it will be a sign that the world is over, we are all doomed, the apocalypse is here, etc etc etc. Try not to let them ruin your weekend too much.

[uponit7771]

16. FIGHT FOR DOWN BALLOT!! We need to choke the horrid culture that has infested the GOP