2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Presidential Meta-Analysis for 2016
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/06/30/the-2016-presidential-meta-analysis/Excellent news from the PEC's Sam Wang, but it is no time to rest on our laurels:
Today, I give a brief tour of the computational approach.
The Meta-Analysis starts with a Python script that downloads recent state polls from the Huffington Posts Pollster operation. Thanks to Natalie Jackson, the HuffPollster team, and dozens of pollsters for this stream of information, which forms the foundation of the calculation.
Where polls are not available, we use the election result from 2012. As I have written, this years Clinton-versus-Trump state polls are strongly correlated with 2012?s Obama-versus-Romney polls. Because no realignment is evident, past results are a good predictor of the likely outcome this year. At the moment, no more than fourteen states are genuinely in play.
-white
floriduck
(2,262 posts)RandySF
(58,756 posts)Just looking at the map, Hillary is over 270
La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,366 posts)cerebral for some.
The comments following his article are such a pleasant departure from comments at similar sites.
La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)Hugely time consuming stuff
Her Sister
(6,444 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,366 posts)One reason that the Brexit vote succeeded was because the advance polls were showing that "Remain" would win and too many eedjits either sat at home and didn't vote or stupidly voted to "Leave" as a protest vote against their party leaders rotten policies. They obviously did not make the connection that however POed they are/were with their party leaders, forfeiting EU membership is a dreadful consequence.
We must ensure that NO complacency exists in Nov so that our own best interests are not sabotaged. We must also ensure that everyone who wants to vote is properly registered and GOTV everywhere.
Don the Con would be a dreadful and unthinkable consequence of our complacency or personal snits.
Cha
(297,137 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,366 posts)Cha
(297,137 posts)DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)Agreed with everyone who says we must NOT take this for granted!