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Wed Jul 13, 2016, 11:05 AM

 

Quinnipiac’s Latino Problem: Shoddy Q Poll Strikes Again and Media Lap it Up (GD 16)

Quinnipiac University has developed a reputation for outlier polls that consistently deliver bad news for Hillary Clinton and good news for Donald Trump. When we deconstruct their polls, Quinnipiac’s errors are glaringly obvious.

On June 29, we took apart a Q poll that showed Donald ahead of Hillary nationally by two points.



My colleagues Anthony Reed (predictive modeling expert and founder of the highly respected Benchmark Politics) and Eric Kleefeld pointed out that Quinnipiac was alone in its depiction of the race as particularly close. Most other polls at the time indicated a Hillary lead of between 4 and 6 points, and some polls placed her advantage at 8 points or above. Unsurprisingly, the Q poll got a wave of breathless media coverage. But a “unique poll result” is typically an indication of a bad poll result.



Here’s Quinnipiac’s fundamental problem: They tend to under-represent minorities. In their June 29 analysis, Reed and Kleefeld argued that polls like PPP, IBD/TIPP predict white turnout will be around 70 percent in 2016, down from 72 percent in the 2012 exit poll. Quinnipiac, on the other hand, has white turnout pegged at 73%. Another dubious finding in the June 29 Q poll is Latino support for Donald at 33% when most polls place it around 20%.

Quinnipiac’s reputation was already very shaky, in light of their dishonest, discredited, and widely disseminated 2015 poll announcing that in a word-association exercise, voters immediately thought of Hillary as a “liar.”

While Quinnipiac presented the poll as evidence that voters associated “liar” with Hillary, we demonstrated that it was Republican and Republican-leaning respondents to the Q-poll who linked Hillary to liar and other derogatory terms (including “bitch”). It is a vastly different thing for Republicans, parroting Fox news and talk radio, to hurl misogynistic insults at Hillary than for all voters to believe Hillary is a liar.


As Mediaite explained at the time: “As far as we know, only 35% of the people asked had something negative to say about Hillary Clinton.” But the way Quinnipiac and the media played it, Hillary was seen as a “liar” by the majority of American voters.


More in link: http://bluenationreview.com/shoddy-q-poll-strikes-again-and-media-lap-it-up/

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Reply Quinnipiac’s Latino Problem: Shoddy Q Poll Strikes Again and Media Lap it Up (GD 16) (Original post)
Her Sister Jul 2016 OP
Lord Magus Jul 2016 #1
geek tragedy Jul 2016 #2
CrowCityDem Jul 2016 #3
Cicada Jul 2016 #6
Iliyah Jul 2016 #4
Mc Mike Jul 2016 #5
Her Sister Jul 2016 #8
LenaBaby61 Jul 2016 #7
book_worm Jul 2016 #9
MFM008 Jul 2016 #10
Her Sister Jul 2016 #11

Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 11:07 AM

1. The media demands a horse race narrative & Quinnipiac delivers.

Why would they care about accuracy when they can instead make the race look competitive?

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 11:09 AM

2. Exit polls aren't as accurate as voter files, which tend to show

 

an electorate somewhat more Republican-friendly than exit polls do--meaning Democrats probably do a little better in terms of % in some groups than exit polls indicate.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 11:11 AM

3. Looking at the crosstabs, Q's polls are bad news for Trump.

 

They make ridiculous assumptions about the demographics, and even give him the lead among Hispanics in Florida. Ha!

And with all that, they still only get him to losing the Electoral College by a small amount, instead of a landslide.

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Response to CrowCityDem (Reply #3)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 12:18 PM

6. Exit poll demographics underground white voters

Google upshot exit poll. Upshot makes the case that exit polls undercount whites by at least two percent. So maybe quinnipiac assumptions on the race composition of voters are accurate. But upshot also finds whites were more likely to vote for obama than exit polls indicated.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 11:24 AM

4. Latinos/Latinas are not going with T-rump.

And the GOP and media knows it. Dressing . . . that's all it is.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 12:07 PM

5. Thanks for the info, H.S. Bookmarked for the good source you gave. Rec, nt.

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Response to Mc Mike (Reply #5)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 12:31 PM

8. Thanks Mc Mike!

 

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 12:22 PM

7. I just saw some cross tabs of this latest Q poll and uh...

They're "ASSUMING" party identity again, and of course over-sampling whites by an even larger margin this time as you pointed out OP and under-sampling the minority vote by even larger margins as well this time around.
Cross tabs in Florida:
https://www.qu.edu/images/poll...


Cross tabs in Ohio:
https://www.qu.edu/images/poll...


Cross tabs in Pennsylvania:
https://www.qu.edu/images/poll...

Now, this is not to say that there won't be ebbs and flows in polling until November because there will be. This is not to say that we as Dems don't need to GOTV effort and work hard all across this country like we're down 10 points in EVERY state.

However, when you see a once Gold-Standard pollster like Q-Poll who is now trying to make "news" via their BIASED polling, and whose trended to being wrong the past few elections cycles than not well, you know, &

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 01:18 PM

9. They think because Obama isn't on the ticket that African-American turnout will be down

and I don't think so. I think it will be at least as strong and that Latino turnout will be particularly high.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 01:23 PM

10. I'm putting a lot of faith

In Latinos
Black community
Women of all colors
To really make a difference and put us
Over the top in Nov.
I'll be doing my part for the dull, white , over 55
College educated females however.

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Response to Her Sister (Original post)

Wed Jul 13, 2016, 02:09 PM

11. KnR

 

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