2016 Postmortem

TheSarcastinator

(854 posts) Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:06 AM Jul 2016

a little reassurance for those concerned about the polls

Remember this?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

Deep breath, folks: it's all media hype. Trump's gonna lose in a landslide.

10 replies

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a little reassurance for those concerned about the polls (Original Post) TheSarcastinator Jul 2016 OP

I'd say, get a life Mass Jul 2016 #1

I understand the anxiety people have about these numbers TheSarcastinator Jul 2016 #3

Gallup was repeatedly warned that they under sampled minorities. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2016 #5

I agree with you... tallahasseedem Jul 2016 #7

Here is On the Media's consumer guide to election polls ehrnst Jul 2016 #2

+1 treestar Jul 2016 #8

Nate gives her an 80% chance of winning CanonRay Jul 2016 #4

538 relies on the polls TeddyR Jul 2016 #6

538 takes into account several factors before weighing a poll ehrnst Jul 2016 #9

Mittens didn't scare me nearly as much as Trumper does. redstatebluegirl Jul 2016 #10

Mass

(27,315 posts)

1. I'd say, get a life

Reply to TheSarcastinator (Original post)

Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:07 AM

Jul 2016

At this point, polls are nothing more than a parlor game.

TheSarcastinator

(854 posts)

3. I understand the anxiety people have about these numbers

Reply to Mass (Reply #1)

Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:09 AM

Jul 2016

the prospect of a Trump presidency is freaking horrific...so saying "get a life" to those concerned seems a bit arrogant and juvenile...but you rock on with your bad self.

DemocratSinceBirth

(102,012 posts)

5. Gallup was repeatedly warned that they under sampled minorities.

Reply to TheSarcastinator (Reply #3)

Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:12 AM

Jul 2016

Remember this is the most hallowed name in polling. Rather than revisit their methodology they doubled down.

tallahasseedem

(6,716 posts)

7. I agree with you...

Reply to TheSarcastinator (Reply #3)

Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:26 AM

Jul 2016

The media can depress turnout and enthusiasm with the push of illegitimate polls. For those of us working to GOTV, it can be a major hurdle.

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)

2. Here is On the Media's consumer guide to election polls

Reply to TheSarcastinator (Original post)

Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:07 AM

Jul 2016

treestar

(82,383 posts)

8. +1

Reply to ehrnst (Reply #2)

Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:28 AM

Jul 2016

Good advice

CanonRay

(16,275 posts)

4. Nate gives her an 80% chance of winning

Reply to TheSarcastinator (Original post)

Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:11 AM

Jul 2016

and that is only going to go up. The MSM wants a horse race, so expect to see shit polls.

TeddyR

(2,493 posts)

6. 538 relies on the polls

Reply to CanonRay (Reply #4)

Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:19 AM

Jul 2016

And if the polls are off then 538 is off. See the Dem primary in Michigan this year, where I think he gave Hillary like a 95% or higher chance of winning.

Setting that aside, a poll that shows Trump ahead by 7% is probably no more reliable than one showing Hillary ahead by 12% (or whatever the ridiculously high number was from last week). I imagine that Hillary is ahead by about 5% nationally and that it is closer than that in some critical swing states. The debates may be especially important this year because I don't think Trump is going to play well at all to a national audience.

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)

9. 538 takes into account several factors before weighing a poll

Reply to TeddyR (Reply #6)

Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:48 AM

Jul 2016

They weigh for conservative/liberal leaning, and several other factors.

They don't just aggregate, and have a better record than just about everyone else:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast-model-works/

redstatebluegirl

(12,855 posts)

10. Mittens didn't scare me nearly as much as Trumper does.

Reply to TheSarcastinator (Original post)

Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:50 AM

Jul 2016

We decided last night to stop watching any TV news programs. I don't want to see orange man on my screen 24/7.

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