Trump gains in new Reuters/Ipsos poll

[Doodley]

The July 18-22 national online poll found that 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, while 38 percent supported Trump. Given the poll's credibility interval of about 4 percentage points, Trump and Clinton should be considered to be about even in the race.

Just before Republicans opened the convention on Monday, Trump had trailed Clinton by nearly 10 percentage points in the poll.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1022ES

[stopbush]

1. Obama led Romney by 1.9-2.6 points in July 2012.

He won the electoral college 332-206.

Hillary's lead over Trump is DOUBLE that of Obama over Romney at the same time in 2012.

No, they are NOT tied statistically.

You "concern" is noted.

[Doodley]

6. Hopefully this ia Trump's high water mark.

[Big Blue Marble]

2. This is likely Republicans coming home.

More about party unity than gaining independents. Only polls after next week
will really show how the general elections begin.....

[KMOD]

3. Not much of a convention bump for trump.

And now we're up.

Going into our convention with a lead. LOVE IT!!!!

[TDale313]

4. Convention Bump.

Not a big deal, and Dems will likely get one during/after theirs.

[uponit7771]

5. tRump is under the GOP floor ℅ AFTER the GOP convention!! Clintons numbers are pre DNC convention

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. what are you saying? there's never been a GOP candidate with a bigger gap

from opponent post convention? or his bump historically lowest??

[uponit7771]

10. The GOP floor is 39% Donald Trump is 38% after the GOP convention.... That's landslide numbers

[pnwmom]

7. This online poll has been all over the place. And it doesn't report any margin of error because

it doesn't use a random sample. A "credibility interval" is not the same as a "margin of error."

So I never pay any attention to these Reuters polls.

[uponit7771]

11. +1, I missed the online part

[Loki Liesmith]

9. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A STATISTICAL TIE!!!

Sorry for shouting but it needs to be heard.

Whoever is ahead is *statistically* ahead.

If you are ahead outside the margin of error, then the probability that you are really ahead is >95%.

If you are ahead within the margin of error, the probability you are ahead is less, but still pretty good. In this case probably about 70% likelihood of actually being ahead.

[politicaljunkie41910]

12. That latest poll is as of today and shows that Trump got a 5 point bump out of his Convention.

I suspect that Hillary will get at least the same amount by the end of next week. The more Donald talks, the more he digs himself into a hole with the General Electorate with his 'fire and brimstone' outlook on the world, and he can't count on his kids to dig him out again. That card has already been played. He has no plans on how he's going to create the millions of new jobs like he promised in his acceptance speech and crying wolf only works so many time. It's only a matter of time before even his base figures out that the Emperor is wearing no clothes.