2016 Postmortem
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writes3000
(4,734 posts)writes3000
(4,734 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Blue Idaho
(4,825 posts)"Horse race! Dead heat! Neck and neck!!!!!!" Think about the ad revenue the M$M will all lose if they start telling the truth!
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)keeps me calm through the season
Blue Idaho
(4,825 posts)Tatiana
(14,167 posts)I also think North Carolina is more purple than blue right now, but we can win it. I also think we have a shot at Arizona.
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)there could be a significant amount of Republican apathy, unless we make guns the central issue.
Tatiana
(14,167 posts)And he's also not lifting a finger to support the Republican ticket.
The state is ripe for the taking. You're right. Women will be the key here: the very demographic Bill addressed last night.
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)in terms of voter turnout.
Tatiana
(14,167 posts)It is a good time for Kirkpatrick to be running for Senate, especially if Hillary Clinton has coattails.
Also, I Grijalva is a national treasure. There is a lot to be positive about in AZ.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Last map I saw it was strongly DEM. Interesting.
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)bigwillq
(72,790 posts)auntpurl
(4,311 posts)If so, that looks pretty damned good.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,536 posts)That is a problem to me.
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)It only looks like the last poll governs because there have still been so few polls.
His algorithm is explained here: "The most recent poll is always used, and, if any other polls were taken within a week of it, they are all averaged together."
When polls are coming thick and fast, more will be used. For example, check out this page from October 21, 2012, and mouse over each state. There wasn't much interest in polling Hawaii so the site was still using a poll from September 28. Minnesota had two polls counted, so the projection was shown to be based on "Survey USA+PPP". For Florida, the main map says only "Six polls", there being too many to fit in the little box, but you can left-click on Florida and see all the poll results throughout the campaign.
Cosmocat
(14,513 posts)nm
Maeve
(41,972 posts)Especially if the Trumpeter keeps talking!