Who here senses Trump will back out of the Presidential Debates?

[FarPoint]

He has history of cancelled Debates already...a Republican Debate and one with Bernie Sanders. Today, I heard on MSNBC what sounds like he's setting up such using his victim/ drama position, staging a cancellation ultimately... Apparently, he claims the Debate schedule is now rigged to fit Hillary saying some are scheduled during NFL football games. Of course, the Debate schedule was planned early 2016...

So, I see him trying to avoid any debate or accountability.

[TreasonousBastard]

1. If he thinks he can get out of it and "win", he will.

[FarPoint]

4. I totally see that too.

Don't know if Pence will follow his lead...

[sinkingfeeling]

2. He might do the first one and then refuse the rest.

[Kber]

10. That's my bet

[Dustlawyer]

14. It will only take one.

The contrast between Hillary's detailed knowledge and preparation and Trump's winging it with off the cuff short answers will be comical and humiliating, something Trump could not stand. Besides, the questions would be much different than Banghazi, terrorist etc., there would be policy questions too!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

24. 1st & skip rest is most likely. Refuse them all is unlikely. He thinks of the primary debates.

Trump doesn't yet realize that the general election is whole different beast from the primaries.

In the primaries he could get up on the stage and bluster and say something outrageous and not be hurt and generate headlines that fired up his base.

In the general, his base is already fired up, but he has little chance of converting any more voters by his primary tactics. People who want to be bulls in the china shop and smash up the established order have already voted (in the Republican primaries).

Trump thinks he can win the Presidential debates. He won't. Some in the media will try to spin up his performance in order to stretch out the chance of a horse race but it won't really wash.

After the first debate he will conclude they are a losing proposition and he will demand some ridiculous condition so that it seems as if Hillary is backing out, but it will only make it worse for himself.

[font size = "+1"]Trump gets angry and does not know how to respond when (especially a woman) calls him out on his lies and bluster and idiocy. If Hillary does so calmly and coolly then Trump will trip himself up for all to see.[/font]

Overall, Hillary can do very well in debates and the campaign by maintaining positivity and maneuvering Trump into a dark negative fear-based "law and order" last stand.

[nruthie]

27. His followers...

won't be watching debates anyway. Their minds are already made up and they won't be deterred or changed by mere facts. We make the mistake of thinking that they might suddenly become rational and use reasoning; this won't happen. They are not rational. PERIOD.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

28. The desired effect of the debates is not on his core followers. . . nt

[sailfla]

29. Agreed

[PatSeg]

39. It isn't the loyal followers

that would be affected by the debates. It would be those undecided voters or the ones who haven't been paying much attention and are leaning to Trump.

[madaboutharry]

3. If that is the case

then Hillary should be allowed to attend herself and answer all the questions herself. And they should have an empty podium next to her.

[FarPoint]

11. We should prepare....

I know he is scheming....he can not actually participate as a valid competitor against Hillary...so, he needs to create drama surrounding a debate to mask his incompetence.

[rjsquirrel]

20. She ought to agree to debate Gary Johnson

It would be civil and informative and draw a lot of Trump's softer support toward Johnson just by giving him the media exposure. It would also suck the media oxygen out of Trump's tent.

Build Johnson up. A vote for Johnson is 90% likely to be a vote against Trump based on recent polling, often by someone who says they "can't" support Clinton. Jill Stein is irrelevant, polling below 3% now and listing to starboard by the day as all
but the most wacko left/anarchist of Sanders' supporters gradually come around (a processed helped by seeing just HOW wacko the remaining Busters really are -- you can see on DU how annoying they are to people who strongly suported Sanders but *as* progressive democrats and not as utopian/authoritarian campus left babies).


Anyway Stein will finish at less than 1% as usual. But Johnson is polling as high as 8-9% in a lot of places, and the usual 15% threshold for debate appearances seems unfair given that Johnson seems to be doing better whenever he's actually mentioned in polls and the worse Trunp's clown act gets.

If Johnson draws 5% Clinton wins this thing easily. She ought to bolster him by taking him seriously. He and Bill Weld are decent and civil people, even if they believe some nutty shit about privatization.

We are missing an opportunity if we don't boost Johnson as a serious contender.

[LisaL]

33. No.

No reason for her to debate Gary Johnson if he is polling below 15%. She didn't set these rules. If Trump doesn't show she should be there answering questions.

[rjsquirrel]

34. I argued specific strategic reasons for the contrary case

to which you offered no counterargument. So pardon me if your "no" doesn't change my mind.

And I know the of official debate rules. There are other forums.

[LisaL]

35. You didn't change my mind either.

And if you know the debate rules, is it up to her on who to debate? And why Johnson only, and not Stein?
If you are going to break the rules and allow those below 15% to debate, then shouldn't everybody be allowed to debate?

[rjsquirrel]

36. I wasn't trying to

You responded to me.

If Trump backs out of the debates -- the scenario to which I was addressing my comments -- the rules are out the window. Hillary could project strength and hurt Trump (and the GOP longer term) by treating Johnson as a serious candidate and in fact legitimating him.

It's a calculus, not a feeling. Johnson is polling close to 10% in some red states where a number like that could give Clinton the state. Utah is only the most obvious example. So it will depend on how polls look in the broader picture and whether and by how much she is ahead in key swing states.

What many people appalled by this idea don't often realize is that if Johnson gets close to 10% Clinton could win a plurality (and all the electoral votes) in a number of deep red states. It's almost the only path to an EV landslide. Johnson voters are labor mostly to Trump. It's simple to infer that from recent polling -- they are people who will never vote for Hillary.

What people also don't realize is that Johnson is a civil and rational person who despises Trump and has flat out called him a racist and a demagogue.

I'm thinking outside the box, I know. But this is not a conventional election.

[LisaL]

38. Again, why Johnson and not the rest of them?

If Johnson is allowed to debate, how do you explain why Stein isn't allowed?

[rjsquirrel]

42. Because Johnson is close to 10% in many states

and is a sane, rational, intelligent person who shares a desire to see Trump beaten.

Stein is at 3% (at best) and falling and is a crazy person who would probably be happy to help Trump beat Clinton.

I think Clinton and Johnson should have a moderated sit down conversation, IF Trump bags the debates. Johnson, with more exposure, will take many more votes from Trump in states we would otherwise lose than he will from Clinton in states we would otherwise win. He will require Trump to use resources and attacks on Johnson to defend Utah and Georgia. Clinton will look strong and call attention to Trump's cowardice.

Strategery! I know the conventional wisdom is not to legitimize any opponent. I'm suggesting that in a close race where Johnson could win away some voters from Trump who will never vote for Hillary we could win some red states. It's the inverse of Trump's move on Midwestern states, and his play for Sanders die hards.

I'm suggesting it as a thought experiment in unconventional thinking. But then I actually like Johnson and his running mate, both of whom were very popular moderate republican governors of blue states, neither of whom are at all bigoted. I disagree profoundly with their privatization views, but those are ideas progressives need to debate directly to favor social investment by government in the arena of public debate. They're not automatically stupid ideas. They are coupled to a social and cultural and civil rights agenda that would mostly be quite recognizable to the average progressive.

[Chasstev365]

5. No Way: He's a fucking genius in his own mind

The debates will give him a bigger stage than he's ever had. I wonder how he well take having his ass kicked by a woman?

[Wounded Bear]

6. It's possible, and would fit his personality...

as he's shown it to us during the campaign. He's already pre-loading all of the "they're biased" and "it's rigged" excuses.

I'm pretty sure he knows he doesn't have a chance against Hillary, who has been training for these debates for about 40 years. I'm really sure his handlers know this.

Frankly, I'm fine with it. If he chooses to wimp out, it just gives the Hillary camp more ammo.

[Siwsan]

7. I can envision him pulling a Col. Nathan Jessup imitation (Jack Nicholson in 'A Few Good Men')

When he's on the stand and blows up when pressed for an answer - but less self serving patriotic umbrage and more self serving lies, rants and venom.

[FarPoint]

12. Hahahaha..

Yes! I too can definitely see that happening.

[PatSeg]

40. Excellent analogy!

[TheCowsCameHome]

8. He will try, but he must debate.

The public and the media will demand it.

[randr]

9. He will set it up so that after Hillary kicks his ass

he will whine about how the whole thing is rigged and he told us so.

[unblock]

13. trump will call himself a masterdebater or something like that

he's not a man who can back down from a fight.

he'll simply insist, before, during and after, that he's the winner, regardless of actual performance.

[FarPoint]

15. I believe he is scared shitless already.

To actually have to be held accountable without a script or director. He will probably have an ear piece.

[unblock]

18. i don't think so. he *should* be scared shitless, but his ego won't let him.

anyway, they'll be talking past each other.

hillary will be making cogent, intelligent arguments for policies that will make americans, the american economy, and american institutions stronger and fairer.

donald trump will be making insults and lies and provocative statements.

the only thing that trump understands about facts and policy is that they don't grab headlines the way insults and lies and provocative statements do.

by his own measures, he thinks he can win and will deem himself the winner regardless.

[MoonRiver]

37. Doesn't matter what he deems.

IF the twisted little liar actually debates her, he will be slaughtered. He is a cowardly bully, who knows when he can't defeat an enemy, i.e. Hillary. Imo, he knows it already, and is plotting his exit strategy. Somebody needs to supply him with a package of extra-absorbent Depends. He's going to need them.

[Onlooker]

16. He's too much of a narcissist ...

... he won't back out. He'll honestly believe he can win, and quite frankly no matter how bad he does, it's pretty clear that a lot of people will think he won.

[anamnua]

17. If he backs out

it will be a propaganda boost for Hillary:
'If he hasn't the backbone to face me in debate he is unfit to lead the country'.

[femmocrat]

19. I predict he will demand to be paid for his appearance.

When that doesn't happen he will sue the Debate Commission and back out because of the pending law suit.

[CanonRay]

21. I've been saying that since he became the presumed nominee

there will be no Presidential debates. Kaine-Pence, maybe so.

[Cha]

22. I would have thought he'd want to

get up on that stage and yell insults @ Hillary and scream..

Excuse Memememememe, I'm Talking!!

[PatSeg]

41. Oh that is perfect!

Such a bully.

[glennward]

23. Trump is counting on Assange and the other hackers to win this for him. He is counting on the

revelations to actually cancel the need for any debates. Listen closely to what he says and how he is saying it. He knows he probably doesn't have care about whom he offends, hurts, or denigrates. He feels certain that he can commit murder, treason or anything else and he will still get his voters and then, after new allegations against Hillary get even more votes.

If there is some there there, I'm counting on a Presidential pardon and the votes from really sane voters who really love and appreciate this country to NEVER allow someone like Trump to become President of the USA.

[NCTraveler]

26. How well do you think he is protected from hackers?

Serious question. This really might turn into the hacker election. Well, Trump is a hack. I find it hard to believe he isn't being targeted.

[NCTraveler]

25. Yes, I know what I am about to say is crass.

Clinton: "Do either of your sons have the balls to show up?"

That will really cut like a knife when it comes to Trumps base. They think he is a badass without fear. The optics would highlight his cowardice.

[randome]

30. The debate schedule is against him. The Convention organizers are against him.

The fire marshal is against him. He's building a resume on how to quit and still look magnificent.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]There is nothing you can't do if you put your mind to it.
Nothing.[/center][/font][hr]

[DemonGoddess]

31. He's going to try and get out of them

because Hillary will eviscerate him, and he KNOWS it.

[renie408]

43. I am guessing he may know it in his heart, but blames everything else in his head.

I don't think he can confront his own ineptitude.

[FarPoint]

32. I'm Kicking this thread from yesterday...

I smelled a rotten campaign trick in the making....