Yesterday Fivethirtyeight had Trump just barely ahead in their "Now-cast"...

[George II]

...and one other category.

As of this morning, Clinton has SURGED ahead in all three categories:

Polls Plus chance of winning:

Hillary Clinton 60.9% Donald Trump 39.1%

Polls Only:

Hillary Clinton 51.0% Donald Trump 49.0%

Now-cast:

Hillary Clinton 56.8% Donald Trump 43.2%





http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

[vollehosen]

1. Now-cast is definitely up but

Hillary is ahead in the Now-cast but she was higher in the other 2 yesterday. (61.7 and 54ish?)

[Democat]

3. Welcome to DU and thanks for sharing your concern

Clinton is ahead of Trump, that's what matters.

[George II]

5. No big deal but Polls Only yesterday (July 30) was Trump 51.1 and Clinton 49.9, and....

...Polls Plus was 60.4 and 39.6. Their Now-Cast yesterday was 50.9 for Clinton and 49.1 for Trump.

[Imperialism Inc.]

6. The other two models are slower to react to recent trends

My guess is that the models are seeing that some of the the tightening trend is real and are slowly adjusting to that. In other words Clinton may be improving but the race is still tighter than it used to be; it wasn't just a RNC convention bump.

On the other hand they aren't fully factoring in the recent Clinton momentum because it waits to see if that goes away so to speak.

It might take a week or so, and consistent future polls, for it to be reflected in the other two models.

[DemonGoddess]

2. Good!

[jcgoldie]

4. I think the polls plus model is most reliable

It is certainly the least unstable. As the other two metrics have flown up and down day by day that one has remained constant around 60/40.