What happens if Trump unravels further and drops out?

[adigal]

I've asked this in comments, but haven't gotten any response. But I'm seriously curious and concerned. What happens if Trump continues to spiral downward and loses it? Refuses to debate Hillary, which is where I think he's headed with his comments about the schedule? Just walks away, because he can't hide behind his Twitter? Refuses to campaign anymore? Because I have the distinct feeling that the media actually calling him on his lies, like the ones about Putin, are unraveling him.

Does Pence become the nominee? Cruz? If Cruz becomes the nominee, what happens to Pence? Does he slink away, back to his anti-gay home state?

I have lots of questions, but no answers. Any knowledge would be appreciated.

[liberal N proud]

1. I don't think anyone knows the answer to that

[adigal]

2. I know...and that concerns me

And I don't know if I want him to stay or go. What's best for us?

[Xithras]

25. We do know the answer. The RNC rules cover that scenario.

There are no laws covering the process, but both major parties have rules in place governing how the problem would be handled.

First the current RNC chair would call for an emergency meeting of the voting RNC committee, which is made up of 150 people (3 from each state). Once the committee is together, anyone in the room can nominate a new candidate and call for a vote on them. The first nomination to get 76 votes is the new party candidate. They are NOT required to pick the current VP pick, or anyone else from the primaries for that matter. Reince Priebus (the current RNC chairman) could nominate HIMSELF, and if he could get half the people in the room to vote for him he'd be the new candidate.

Practically speaking, they'd probably try to put together a Jeb/Cruz ticket, because that would be palatable to most of their party.

The process on the Democratic side is much the same, with the DNC making the selection.

[tonyt53]

26. I agree with your explanation and assessment 100%

[Chemisse]

31. Thanks!

I've been wondering about this also.

[Xithras]

36. The answer was pretty easy to find.

First I had to put on my hip waders because I knew what I was getting into. And then a mask to cover the odor, and a pair of gloves to keep my hands excrement-free.

Then I went over to GOP.Com, clicked the link to see their party rules, and did a CTRL+F on the PDF file to find the relevant sections.

After that I had to burn my computer, bleach my eyeballs, and call up the local poison control office to have a biohazard crew come and decontaminate me. They rushed right over once I explained what I'd done. Apparently it's a common source of infections...

[Chemisse]

37. You took one for the team!

[adigal]

38. Thank you for the hazardous work - you deserve hazard pay!!! nt

[Hortensis]

46. Possibility: The Republican leadership rejects Trump and

pressures him to withdraw, then simply moves Mike Pence up into his slot, with another VP. It could theoretically happen, without rebellion now that Republican voters are being forced to realize they made a mistake.

Pence embodies the fusion of hard-right religion, hard-right social conservatism, and hard-right laissez-faire economics as the embodiment of virtue. The entire right wing leadership, from McConnell and Ryan to the giant Koch alliance (discretely), would be behind that, with everything they had if they believed they somehow still had a path to the White House. Pence is already making populist-resentment noises as Trump's running mate, and the right running mate would make them the complete right-wing package.

?resize=450x450

[tblue37]

53. If that happens, the Dems should run commercials emphasizing how irresponsible the

Last edited Wed Aug 3, 2016, 12:25 PM - Edit history (1)

GOP leadership was to allow the nomination of such an unfit candidate in the first place and then not only endorse him to protect their own cowardly rear ends, but to continue to support him through so many horrible comments and tweets and so much evidence of his ignorance and mental disorder.

[Hortensis]

56. Pence himself would appeal to the hard religious

and social right and the dark-money string pullers, but he'd horrify everyone else who was paying attention. That said, Trump's diminished following seems to be very strongly committed to him, so it probably won't happen. Pence is just the kind to stack the Court with anti-government justices and repeal Social Security, while, in addition to the bigotry they're always identified with, Trump's followers are rebelling against dismantling programs designed to serve them.

[lostnfound]

47. They could pick Paul Ryan and win easily.

The lack of time for a campaign would be a strength, in that case. The Democrats wouldnt have time to make the case against him, and he appears reasonable and sane to moderates.

Trump is atrocious, and Hillary can beat him. Some other well-mannered pop-up puppet will be establishment, but the hardcore crazies that support Trump are the same frothing Clinton-haters that have bought into every crazy Clinton conspiracy story that ever was, so they would vote against Hillary, and the moderate Republicans and a lot of independents see Ryan as sane and reasonable.

[RobinA]

49. I Would Hope

that the DNC has contingency plans for just such a situation, however unlikely. In this rather odd situation they need to be able to run against anyone who has a sensible chance of being a Trump replacement, on the off chance he gets replaced.

[mythology]

54. Except it would anger a large number of Trump's true believers

and I'm guessing that any money donated to the Trump campaign would effectively be forfeit making it hard to get fundraising numbers up to compete. I think that if a party nominee ever has to drop out after they are the nominee it would kill their party's chances of winning.

[adigal]

4. Oh, boy, that would be interesting. Nt

[Ms. Yertle]

5. I asked that question a few days ago

Someone indicated that it would be up to the Republican Party to choose a replacement. IOW, could be anyone.

[adigal]

6. Do you think he's going to drop out??? I'm betting 50/50. Nt

[Ms. Yertle]

9. I wouldn't be at all surprised

Once it becomes obvious that he will lose, he will walk away in a snit. Probably say something about how the country doesn't deserve him.

Then--Ryan? Romney? Cruz?

It won't matter. There isn't time for anyone else to mount much of a campaign, especially since the Trumplings are going to be so angry they will do anything to bring down the party that turns on their hero and savior.

President. Hillary. Clinton.

[helpisontheway]

7. I hope he does not drop out

I don't want them to put someone on the ticket like Kasich or Jeb. I think Hillary would have a tougher time against them. Plus it would not be fair to Hillary. She has spent time and money breaking Trump down. Not fair for someone with no battle wounds to step up and walk away with the presidency.

[auntpurl]

14. The question is whether you think the Republican party has more

frothing racist low-info voters, or middle of the road business types. I suspect there are more of the former (since Trump won the primaries), ergo it's good for us if he drops out, especially as his replacement would not have time to mount an effective campaign - particularly as Trump doesn't yet have anything resembling a ground game in place.

[adigal]

21. The only ones I would fear would be Kasich or Bush

Because even though they are horrible people, neither one looks as insane as Cruz or the other nutjobs. I do think the Trumpsters would freak out, though, and Hillary would still win. I hope.

[AllyCat]

29. I wonder if the GOP has been planning exactly this and

Has a readymade campaign for the winning vote getter at the emergency meeting.

[lostnfound]

48. Did Paul Ryan ever use that professional ad that he produced a month before the convention?

Wonder if there were any others made already.

[Purveyor]

30. A Kaisich would be quite concerning, indeed. Jeb not so much imo. eom

[anamnua]

8. The rise, fall, and rise of Romney. NT.

[auntpurl]

15. ...and fall.

You missed an "and fall" at the end there.

[MrScorpio]

10. Good question...

I would say that it would all depends on whether or not he's on each state's ballots by the time of the election in November.

Since he's the one who was elected by a majority of party voters and by a majority of party delegates at their convention, for the office of president... He's it. They don't have anyone else.

So, he's going on those ballots.

For example, consider what would happen if he had the misfortune of dying from a heart attack before the election. Things like this have happened before in other elections and the voters were given the choice of voting for a corpse. One time a dead guy was elected to the Senate and his widow was appointed to take his place. Other dead guys have elected been to the House as well.

Of course, in this case the 20th Amendment has clear instructions. Were Dead Donald to get elected, the VP elect gets the job of Prez.

Either way, if Donald were to either die or quit, people could still vote for him, but if he declines to take the oath of office in case he won anyway, the job belongs to Pence.

[adigal]

22. Jesus, Pence is just as scary as Trump...he's a true believer, like Cruz

I think Trump just wants the fancy airplane and shiny White House to live in.

[NewJeffCT]

40. That would almost be worse

Pence would inspire the evangelicals to turn out.

[scheming daemons]

11. Trump's ego will not permit him to drop out

[Warren Stupidity]

12. He's not dropping out.

And our national media will keep the "horse race" going until the election is over.

[Lucinda]

19. Yep. n/t

[Laffy Kat]

13. He may indeed continue to unravel, but I don't think he'll drop out.

His supporters honestly don't seem to care how many lies he's caught in, what he says, what he does. It's mind-blowing. I think it could actually get to the point where he's stark raving mad and he will still get the conservative vote. A good portion of this country is now bat shit.

[adigal]

23. This is what's bothering me even more than him

I listened to an Admiral and a General today on CNN and MSNBC on Sirius, they work for his campaign, I think? They both made excuses for him. The MSNBC reporter kicked ass - the General wouldn't say he thinks Trump should apologize to Mr. Khan and she ended with, "So I'll take that as a no - he doesn't need to apologize." HAHAHHAHA!! She did a good job!!

[book_worm]

16. The RNC would convene and a nominee would be selected. Doesn't necessarily have to be anyone who

already ran in the primaries and doesn't have to be Pence (he would continue as VP nominee).

[COLGATE4]

17. Hello, Mitt. nt

[yellowcanine]

18. I think what is more likely is that Pence drops out.

Pence has talked himself into a corner trying to defend Trump but also defending the Khans. Something has to give if this kind of thing continues. I suspect if things get bad enough he might decide to cut his losses and withdraw.

[oberliner]

20. He is not unraveling and he is not dropping out

I know it is hard for us on DU to wrap our minds around this, but what Trump is doing right now is helping him.

[adigal]

24. His supporters are making the most insane excuses for him

and others are just lapping it up.

This, more than anything, is making me want to flee this country.

[titaniumsalute]

27. Trump isn't walking away from anything

He NEVER walks away. He might fake his own heart attack or something...but he won't just quit. That isn't his style.

[Glimmer of Hope]

32. He never apologizes or admits to a mistake so I can't imagine that he would even think about

dropping out.

[Orsino]

44. He ALWAYS walks away.

From anything that looks like work or the consequences of his actions. We can also interpolate from padt behavior that he is deathly afraid of losing to Hillary Clinton (or to anyone else).

I still think he's going to quit--but I've been saying so for a year. He certainly is pre-positioning either for an excuse to quit or to renegotiate the riles for the debates. Debates mean work (or at least W's old debate radio set), so it all still smells to me like Trump doesn't have any more fight in him. Except for Twitter.

[CK_John]

28. The RNC will just bring in Pataki former 3 term Gov of NY.

[thucythucy]

33. I seriously doubt he'll drop out.

His ego won't permit him to admit to being such a loser.

In fact, I doubt he'll make a concession speech, no matter how large a margin against him. He'll run around the country claiming Hillary "stole" it.

This is the man who spent years trying to prove President Obama was a Kenyon Muslim, and NEVER admitted he was wrong despite the overwhelming and incontrovertible evidence against him.

Trump is all ego, all the time. Proclaiming himself a "loser"? He'll off himself first.

[sofa king]

34. We absolutely know the answer to that.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf

RULE NO. 9
Filling Vacancies in Nominations
(a) The Republican National Committee is hereby authorized and empowered to fill any and all vacancies which may occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President of the United States or the Republican candidate for Vice President of the United States, as nominated by the national convention, or the Republican National Committee may reconvene the national convention for the purpose of filling any such vacancies.

(b) In voting under this rule, the Republican National Committee members representing any state shall be entitled to cast the same number of votes as said state was entitled to cast at the national convention.

(c) In the event that the members of the Republican National Committee from any state shall not be in agreement in the casting of votes hereunder, the votes of such state shall be divided equally, including fractional votes, among the members of the Republican National Committee present or voting by proxy.

(d) No candidate shall be chosen to fill any such vacancy except upon receiving a majority of the votes entitled to be
cast in the election.

______________

For TLDRds: The RNC would meet and select their own nominee (forget the part about a second convention, they're not stupid enough to do that).

It's not gonna be Cruz, because the RNC hated him before he dissed their convention; it's not gonna be Pence, he's a teabagger moron; it probably would be Ryan if he were dumb enough to take it but he probably isn't. Not gonna be Rubio because they're depending on him to win a Senate seat in Florida now. Chris Christie will make a less than convincing play for himself, which will be given the "Peter Schibetta brushoff." Karl Rove will make a convincing behind-the-scenes play for Jeb Bush.

And then they'll make their best play to get close enough to steal it.

[lanlady]

35. I think the GOP elders will repudiate him but not replace him

Things are spinning out of control, and I think it's more likely that Ryan et al will end up rescinding their (already lukewarm) endorsements of him, resigning themselves to a Clinton victory, and go all out to retain control of Congress. When Hillary is elected, they'll devote themselves more than ever before to tearing her down with endless faux scandals, Benghazis, ad nauseum, to make her first term a failure. Then they'll run Ryan in 2020. Basically, after the events of the past several days (and with 100 more days of Trump to go!), I think they realize they need to write off the presidency this time around.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

39. Maybe they could have another convention

I could use a good laugh.

Actually, I think Pense took the job thinking the Donald would melt down and he could step up to the plate without the hassle of primaries, caucuses -- you know, all that messy democracy stuff.

[LAS14]

41. I'm pretty sure the Clinton campaign has a detailed...

... strategy all laid out. I assume Pence would be their nominee and would pick a new VP.

[B Calm]

42. Ted Cruz will become the nominee.

[glennward]

43. That's what he is planning to do. Democrats need to keep painting the GOP for what it is.

If he drops out, Hillary might get a huge sympathy vote for their tricks. Pence is worse than Donald except for his knowledge base.

Right now the media is trying to knock off Hillary with the "she lied" meme about the classification of her 3-mails. One would think a large part of her e-mails were marked CLASSIFIED. They know that Comey had to back track on his comments about her -e-mails exposing state secrets. They know that the e-mails in question were NOT marked with the usual CLASSIFIED HEADER. They know the whole story but they won't tell it and NONE of the talking heads or their guests will tell the whole truth about it.

[democrattotheend]

58. I don't think it would help Hillary

Given that people don't trust her, fair or not, the only reason she is doing so well is because Trump is unhinged. If they put someone like Ryan or Kasich on the ticket they could win.

[Demsrule86]

45. Not going to happen. nt

[democrattotheend]

50. My mom expressed that same concern tonight

We are afraid Trump is unraveling too early and may drop out. Especially since he is mostly self-funding - he won't want to waste his money if he knows he can't win. If he drops out an electable Republican might replace him.

[MichiganVote]

51. He won't drop out. His narcissism won't permit it.

[yeoman6987]

52. Trumps not dropping out unless people stop attending his rallies

Then maybe but so far more are showing up them the venues can accommodate. He loves this. He's oblivious to the fact he could lose. He is insane as many are finally saying.

[MFM008]

55. I suppose the offer

would go to Pence and let him pick a VP. Just a guess.

[AgadorSparticus]

57. He is the Republican nominee. His name will be on the ballot.

If he does nothing else and hides in his closet until November, his name is still on the ballot. Nothing changes because at some point, you can't. The ballots, signs, etc. have been printed. The Republican party can't go through and nominate another nominee in the time frame. We are at the tail end of it.