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farmboy

(252 posts)
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 06:45 AM Aug 2016

Brand new post-convention CBS/NYT Poll: Clinton 46, Trump 39!!!They were tied pre-Dem convetion

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/campaign-2016-did-hillary-clinton-get-a-post-convention-bump/

"Forty-six percent of voters nationwide say they'll vote for Clinton in November, while 39 percent say they'll back Trump. The race was tied last week after the Republican convention. Clinton led by a similar margin in June.

Clinton got a four-point bounce after her party's convention, compared to a two-point bump for Trump after his convention."
36 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Brand new post-convention CBS/NYT Poll: Clinton 46, Trump 39!!!They were tied pre-Dem convetion (Original Post) farmboy Aug 2016 OP
Makes sense jeanmarc Aug 2016 #1
Mitt Romney has emerged as one of the few principled people left in the Republican Party. geek tragedy Aug 2016 #2
Billionaires know best IronLionZion Aug 2016 #6
No kidding! jcgoldie Aug 2016 #9
Trump makes Nixon look good workinclasszero Aug 2016 #11
About the bounce... renie408 Aug 2016 #3
A couple points Cosmocat Aug 2016 #7
Which presidential election has been won by double digits? Democat Aug 2016 #8
the last one where the Republican candidate was this extreme: 1964 JustinL Aug 2016 #32
What I meant renie408 Aug 2016 #33
I agree with you that Trump is terrible Democat Aug 2016 #34
TBH duncang Aug 2016 #13
Even today jeanmarc Aug 2016 #4
Boom! Johnny2X2X Aug 2016 #5
the only reason this is even close reflects the biggest failure in political certainot Aug 2016 #10
You are absolutely right. #TraitorTrump has gotten free media and that Corporate Media has not held Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2016 #14
Great points and bagimin Aug 2016 #25
I have been part of that process. Sophiegirl Aug 2016 #26
i think the only reason they get away with this: certainot Aug 2016 #35
Are there that many "Undecideds"? Jesus! Liberal_Stalwart71 Aug 2016 #12
It's amazing isn't it? unitedwethrive Aug 2016 #31
It is really the state polls that have significance. National polls do not correctly factor in the still_one Aug 2016 #15
No but national and state polls do correlate so we will see. yellowcanine Aug 2016 #17
They give us information about the overall support for candidates. MoonRiver Aug 2016 #20
When the national numbers move there is some lag but state numbers usually follow. stevenleser Aug 2016 #21
After the weekend kerfuffle the numbers should be even better. yellowcanine Aug 2016 #16
These are not instant polls. Takes time to conduct and analyze reliable polls. MoonRiver Aug 2016 #24
They were never tied Cary Aug 2016 #18
Fox News commented on this "Clinton 46, Trump 39" left-of-center2012 Aug 2016 #19
Not a large enough spread Dr Rise Aug 2016 #22
Only seven points?!? joshdawg Aug 2016 #23
This may be as good as it gets. The vast majority will vote for "their" party, no matter who the Doodley Aug 2016 #27
Yeah, I got that. Been around too long to figure it otherwise. Just sayin' that since joshdawg Aug 2016 #28
I agree. I think the gap should be a lot bigger. Just saying this MIGHT be it. I hope not. Doodley Aug 2016 #30
Which election has been won by 10% in the last decades? Democat Aug 2016 #29
K & R Scurrilous Aug 2016 #36

jeanmarc

(1,685 posts)
1. Makes sense
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 07:12 AM
Aug 2016

Trump finally lost a few news cycles and his free news handouts and he's getting his ass served to him.

The man is poisonous and truly an awful person. It makes me miss the snootiness of Mitt Romney.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
2. Mitt Romney has emerged as one of the few principled people left in the Republican Party.
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 07:17 AM
Aug 2016

Who would have guessed?

IronLionZion

(45,446 posts)
6. Billionaires know best
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 08:09 AM
Aug 2016

And to think many average Republican voters felt he was out of touch with reality and didn't understand ordinary Americans. Trump is on a completely different planet.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
11. Trump makes Nixon look good
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 08:46 AM
Aug 2016

At least Nixon hired homegrown crooks for Watergate.

Trump farmed it out to the Russians!

renie408

(9,854 posts)
3. About the bounce...
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 07:21 AM
Aug 2016

Does that last? What kind of indicator is it going forward? And have we seen the bulk of the bounce, so to speak?? I feel like she should be beating him by double digits. It always shocks me that ANYBODY supports Trump.

Cosmocat

(14,564 posts)
7. A couple points
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 08:10 AM
Aug 2016

IMO, had Comey not done his hack job and the DNC e-mails not interjected like they were, we would be at the double digit lead you note.

So, we appear to basically be around where things were prior to those two attacks.

As long as there are not more political hit jobs to tear her down, we should see Trump continue to shoot himself in the foot and her lead be mostly stable.

However, anything bad that happens favors trump, because this country is stupid as shit.

Democat

(11,617 posts)
8. Which presidential election has been won by double digits?
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 08:19 AM
Aug 2016

Other than 1984, which was a re-election of a popular incumbent, there is little historical basis for either Trump or Clinton to be winning by double digits.

JustinL

(722 posts)
32. the last one where the Republican candidate was this extreme: 1964
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 12:34 PM
Aug 2016

Last edited Mon Aug 1, 2016, 01:08 PM - Edit history (1)

And that was before the Voting Rights Act.

Edit to add - By crunching the numbers at the following link, it appears that the 1964 electorate was approximately 93% white:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/9454/election-polls-vote-groups-19601964.aspx

renie408

(9,854 posts)
33. What I meant
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 12:47 PM
Aug 2016

was that I FEEL like she should be beating him by double digits. That is a reflection of what poor candidate Trump is.

Democat

(11,617 posts)
34. I agree with you that Trump is terrible
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 12:49 PM
Aug 2016

Unfortunately a lot of voters have been brainwashed by hateful right wing media.

Clinton winning is the most important thing, regardless of the percentages.

duncang

(1,907 posts)
13. TBH
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 08:52 AM
Aug 2016

The length of bounce effect will be according to the news media and what they cover. Especially considering the amount of time till the election it can always change. And who knows where it will go. So even though promising work is still to be done.

jeanmarc

(1,685 posts)
4. Even today
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 07:21 AM
Aug 2016

Even today, he's whining about being criticized by the Khans.

He's just a complete imbecile.

Johnny2X2X

(19,066 posts)
5. Boom!
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 07:22 AM
Aug 2016

This is what we wanted to see. And this poll is probably the post convention bounce, but not the post Khan mess bounce yet. Hopefully it's 47-37 next week.

There's palpable momentum for both campaigns right now. Hillary's is on message, organized, and ready to work. Trump's is reeling.

Do not let these polls stop you from donating and volunteering. Things can change on a dime and even if Hillary continues to pull away we want to maximize gains down ticket.

 

certainot

(9,090 posts)
10. the only reason this is even close reflects the biggest failure in political
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 08:44 AM
Aug 2016

history - the inability of the democratic party and the left to recognize how badly rw radio has dominated the political landscape the last 25 years, since the early 90s, starting after reagan killed the fairness doctrine and BEFORE the tel com act and fox.

while everyone screams about money in politics and wonders how trump can do so well without spending dollars (it's not the twitter) here's some simple math:

at a cheap $1000/hr x 15hrs/day x 1200 stations, rw talk radio is worth 4.68 BIL$/ year or 390MIL$ /month FREE for coordinated global warming denial, pro republican wall st think tank propaganda, free market deregulation bullshit, swiftboating, and the hate and fear used to get people to vote republican.


in this case it's been getting a free speech free ride to swiftboat our candidates, make the sanders warrens and wellstones unacceptable, while making the gomerts, cruzs and trumps acceptable.

and pushing all 'acceptable' candidates and the dem party to the right with coordinated repetition from 1200 radio stations.
 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
14. You are absolutely right. #TraitorTrump has gotten free media and that Corporate Media has not held
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 09:02 AM
Aug 2016

him accountable at all--making the excuse that he's "just a joke," don't take him seriously. They treated him with kid gloves throughout the primary season which helped him.

The right wing has been a dominant force in radio for nearly 20 years. And yet, the Dems did manage to win.

Let's be honest and accept that we don't have a likable candidate on our side, and THAT may be the problem. Some of it is HRC's fault. But MOST of it is the Corporate Media's doing, peddling right wing narratives and talking points. For what it's worth, President Obama has suffered a similar fate. Even some on the left blame him for shit that should be blamed on the Republican Party. Republicans have yet to be held accountable for involving the country in two wars now. They've never been held accountable for destroying our economy. And rather than blaming them for the lack of jobs, I've noticed that not only does the Corporate Media not hold ReThugs accountable for their obstruction and inaction on jobs packages, even many on the political left and in the Democratic Party blame President Obama and NOT the obstruction that has led to total gridlock here in Washington, D.C.

Prime example: I work at one of the federal agencies in D.C. Every fiscal year, ALL federal agencies prepare a budget recommendation for OMB and Congress review. Based on our recommendations, the president crafts his budget proposal and prepares it for Congress. Every single year of President Obama's presidency, we agencies would work tirelessly to send Congress budget recommendations, and the President sends his recommendations based on that. In fact, we'd complete the current fiscal year budget proposal and begin work on the following fiscal year's proposals. But what happens? The Republicans do nothing. Instead, they run to the T.V. cameras to claim that the president has done nothing on the budget; or, that he hasn't sent Congress a budget. (You remember hearing this lie over and over again from John Boehner). Instead of calling out ReThug blatant lies, the Corporate Media repeats this lie over and over again. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats hold weekly press briefings to discuss the budget recommendations and agenda. Does the Corporate Media cover those briefings? No. Does the MSM even fairly report Democratic Party opposition to ReThug lies and misstatements? NO! I know that it has to be quite frustrating for the president who then has to sit back and be targeted from all sides because right wing narratives and talking points are propagated as truth. It is incredibly frustrating for us because we work so hard on these budget proposals.

 

certainot

(9,090 posts)
35. i think the only reason they get away with this:
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 04:43 PM
Aug 2016
But what happens? The Republicans do nothing. Instead, they run to the T.V. cameras to claim that the president has done nothing on the budget; or, that he hasn't sent Congress a budget. (You remember hearing this lie over and over again from John Boehner)


is that republican reps know those 1200 unchallenged radio stations have already pounded it into the earholes of 50 mil every week.

those republican reps can honestly say they have a constituency backing them up.

and it is only an advantage like that because obama supporters ignore it

still_one

(92,194 posts)
15. It is really the state polls that have significance. National polls do not correctly factor in the
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 09:08 AM
Aug 2016

electoral college

MoonRiver

(36,926 posts)
20. They give us information about the overall support for candidates.
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 09:31 AM
Aug 2016

I think they are very important data points.

yellowcanine

(35,699 posts)
16. After the weekend kerfuffle the numbers should be even better.
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 09:11 AM
Aug 2016

We will see what effect Trump's inability to just shut up will have on the general election voters. I am guessing he loses some support to one of the third party candidates if not to Hillary.

MoonRiver

(36,926 posts)
24. These are not instant polls. Takes time to conduct and analyze reliable polls.
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 09:54 AM
Aug 2016

Later this week, the polls will reflect this weekend's damage to Rump.

Cary

(11,746 posts)
18. They were never tied
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 09:22 AM
Aug 2016

I have nothing to back up that assertion but I refuse to believe in Drumpf.

And I have confidence in WE, THE PEOPLE. You can fool some of the people some of the time.

left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts)
19. Fox News commented on this "Clinton 46, Trump 39"
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 09:29 AM
Aug 2016

I had Fox on for about five minutes this morning.
I like to start my day with a laugh.

They said this "Clinton 46, Trump 39" is virtually a 'wash', a tie.

WTF ?

Doodley

(9,092 posts)
27. This may be as good as it gets. The vast majority will vote for "their" party, no matter who the
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 10:07 AM
Aug 2016

candidate is. We are talking about shifting a relatively small percentage of people.

joshdawg

(2,648 posts)
28. Yeah, I got that. Been around too long to figure it otherwise. Just sayin' that since
Mon Aug 1, 2016, 10:27 AM
Aug 2016

Drumpf is irrational and very unstable what with all of his mouthing off and insults and all, that the gap should be a lot wider than seven points.
To add to your post: republicans will vote for this p.o.s. regardless of what he says and does. The Democrats, on the other hand, may or may not vote for HRC. Having said that, one can assume that there is a possibility that we will have Daffy Don as our next Prez.
Have a good day.

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