2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBrand new post-convention CBS/NYT Poll: Clinton 46, Trump 39!!!They were tied pre-Dem convetion
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/campaign-2016-did-hillary-clinton-get-a-post-convention-bump/"Forty-six percent of voters nationwide say they'll vote for Clinton in November, while 39 percent say they'll back Trump. The race was tied last week after the Republican convention. Clinton led by a similar margin in June.
Clinton got a four-point bounce after her party's convention, compared to a two-point bump for Trump after his convention."
jeanmarc
(1,685 posts)Trump finally lost a few news cycles and his free news handouts and he's getting his ass served to him.
The man is poisonous and truly an awful person. It makes me miss the snootiness of Mitt Romney.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Who would have guessed?
IronLionZion
(45,446 posts)And to think many average Republican voters felt he was out of touch with reality and didn't understand ordinary Americans. Trump is on a completely different planet.
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Who would have thought anyone could make Mitt fucking Romney look so good?!?
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)At least Nixon hired homegrown crooks for Watergate.
Trump farmed it out to the Russians!
renie408
(9,854 posts)Does that last? What kind of indicator is it going forward? And have we seen the bulk of the bounce, so to speak?? I feel like she should be beating him by double digits. It always shocks me that ANYBODY supports Trump.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)IMO, had Comey not done his hack job and the DNC e-mails not interjected like they were, we would be at the double digit lead you note.
So, we appear to basically be around where things were prior to those two attacks.
As long as there are not more political hit jobs to tear her down, we should see Trump continue to shoot himself in the foot and her lead be mostly stable.
However, anything bad that happens favors trump, because this country is stupid as shit.
Democat
(11,617 posts)Other than 1984, which was a re-election of a popular incumbent, there is little historical basis for either Trump or Clinton to be winning by double digits.
JustinL
(722 posts)Last edited Mon Aug 1, 2016, 01:08 PM - Edit history (1)
And that was before the Voting Rights Act.
Edit to add - By crunching the numbers at the following link, it appears that the 1964 electorate was approximately 93% white:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/9454/election-polls-vote-groups-19601964.aspx
renie408
(9,854 posts)was that I FEEL like she should be beating him by double digits. That is a reflection of what poor candidate Trump is.
Democat
(11,617 posts)Unfortunately a lot of voters have been brainwashed by hateful right wing media.
Clinton winning is the most important thing, regardless of the percentages.
The length of bounce effect will be according to the news media and what they cover. Especially considering the amount of time till the election it can always change. And who knows where it will go. So even though promising work is still to be done.
jeanmarc
(1,685 posts)Even today, he's whining about being criticized by the Khans.
He's just a complete imbecile.
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)This is what we wanted to see. And this poll is probably the post convention bounce, but not the post Khan mess bounce yet. Hopefully it's 47-37 next week.
There's palpable momentum for both campaigns right now. Hillary's is on message, organized, and ready to work. Trump's is reeling.
Do not let these polls stop you from donating and volunteering. Things can change on a dime and even if Hillary continues to pull away we want to maximize gains down ticket.
certainot
(9,090 posts)history - the inability of the democratic party and the left to recognize how badly rw radio has dominated the political landscape the last 25 years, since the early 90s, starting after reagan killed the fairness doctrine and BEFORE the tel com act and fox.
while everyone screams about money in politics and wonders how trump can do so well without spending dollars (it's not the twitter) here's some simple math:
at a cheap $1000/hr x 15hrs/day x 1200 stations, rw talk radio is worth 4.68 BIL$/ year or 390MIL$ /month FREE for coordinated global warming denial, pro republican wall st think tank propaganda, free market deregulation bullshit, swiftboating, and the hate and fear used to get people to vote republican.
in this case it's been getting a free speech free ride to swiftboat our candidates, make the sanders warrens and wellstones unacceptable, while making the gomerts, cruzs and trumps acceptable.
and pushing all 'acceptable' candidates and the dem party to the right with coordinated repetition from 1200 radio stations.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)him accountable at all--making the excuse that he's "just a joke," don't take him seriously. They treated him with kid gloves throughout the primary season which helped him.
The right wing has been a dominant force in radio for nearly 20 years. And yet, the Dems did manage to win.
Let's be honest and accept that we don't have a likable candidate on our side, and THAT may be the problem. Some of it is HRC's fault. But MOST of it is the Corporate Media's doing, peddling right wing narratives and talking points. For what it's worth, President Obama has suffered a similar fate. Even some on the left blame him for shit that should be blamed on the Republican Party. Republicans have yet to be held accountable for involving the country in two wars now. They've never been held accountable for destroying our economy. And rather than blaming them for the lack of jobs, I've noticed that not only does the Corporate Media not hold ReThugs accountable for their obstruction and inaction on jobs packages, even many on the political left and in the Democratic Party blame President Obama and NOT the obstruction that has led to total gridlock here in Washington, D.C.
Prime example: I work at one of the federal agencies in D.C. Every fiscal year, ALL federal agencies prepare a budget recommendation for OMB and Congress review. Based on our recommendations, the president crafts his budget proposal and prepares it for Congress. Every single year of President Obama's presidency, we agencies would work tirelessly to send Congress budget recommendations, and the President sends his recommendations based on that. In fact, we'd complete the current fiscal year budget proposal and begin work on the following fiscal year's proposals. But what happens? The Republicans do nothing. Instead, they run to the T.V. cameras to claim that the president has done nothing on the budget; or, that he hasn't sent Congress a budget. (You remember hearing this lie over and over again from John Boehner). Instead of calling out ReThug blatant lies, the Corporate Media repeats this lie over and over again. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats hold weekly press briefings to discuss the budget recommendations and agenda. Does the Corporate Media cover those briefings? No. Does the MSM even fairly report Democratic Party opposition to ReThug lies and misstatements? NO! I know that it has to be quite frustrating for the president who then has to sit back and be targeted from all sides because right wing narratives and talking points are propagated as truth. It is incredibly frustrating for us because we work so hard on these budget proposals.
bagimin
(1,333 posts)thanks for the budget insights.
Sophiegirl
(2,338 posts)And everything you wrote is true.
And it is infuriating.
certainot
(9,090 posts)But what happens? The Republicans do nothing. Instead, they run to the T.V. cameras to claim that the president has done nothing on the budget; or, that he hasn't sent Congress a budget. (You remember hearing this lie over and over again from John Boehner)
is that republican reps know those 1200 unchallenged radio stations have already pounded it into the earholes of 50 mil every week.
those republican reps can honestly say they have a constituency backing them up.
and it is only an advantage like that because obama supporters ignore it
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)unitedwethrive
(1,997 posts)still_one
(92,194 posts)electoral college
yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)I think they are very important data points.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)We'll see.
yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)We will see what effect Trump's inability to just shut up will have on the general election voters. I am guessing he loses some support to one of the third party candidates if not to Hillary.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Later this week, the polls will reflect this weekend's damage to Rump.
Cary
(11,746 posts)I have nothing to back up that assertion but I refuse to believe in Drumpf.
And I have confidence in WE, THE PEOPLE. You can fool some of the people some of the time.
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)I had Fox on for about five minutes this morning.
I like to start my day with a laugh.
They said this "Clinton 46, Trump 39" is virtually a 'wash', a tie.
WTF ?
Dr Rise
(99 posts)in my opinion....
joshdawg
(2,648 posts)WTF! Should be 30 or 40.
Doodley
(9,092 posts)candidate is. We are talking about shifting a relatively small percentage of people.
joshdawg
(2,648 posts)Drumpf is irrational and very unstable what with all of his mouthing off and insults and all, that the gap should be a lot wider than seven points.
To add to your post: republicans will vote for this p.o.s. regardless of what he says and does. The Democrats, on the other hand, may or may not vote for HRC. Having said that, one can assume that there is a possibility that we will have Daffy Don as our next Prez.
Have a good day.
Doodley
(9,092 posts)Democat
(11,617 posts)Other than 1984?