FiveThirtyEight: Who will win the presidency? UPDATED!

[George II]

Chance of winning the Presidency (% probability)

Polls Plus: Hillary Clinton 61.8% Donald Trump 38.1%

Polls Only: Hillary Clinton 53.3% Donald Trump 46.7%

Now-cast: Hillary Clinton 63.6% Donald Trump 36.4%

More details on their site:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

[Silent3]

1. Good news, but still too damned narrow a lead

Anything more than single digits odds for a Trump win is revolting and worrying.

[auntpurl]

2. No, it's a fine lead, and it's a win. Let's not move the goalposts on Hillary.

The conservative base will vote for Trump if he eats a baby live on TV. Look at Ryan, McConnell, and McCain - denouncing his statements in the strongest terms, but not a one of them saying they won't vote for him. That won't change - they want the Supreme Court and they're willing to sell their souls to get it. Every political insider knows the SC is what this election is all about - the next president is going to have a chance to shape the court for a generation.

What I want from Hillary Clinton is a win. Obama won by 7 in 2008 and 4 in 2012. You're right, I don't want it to be 1%, i.e. close enough to steal, but double digits is extremely unrealistic. If it happens, awesome! It means more Americans reject the bigotry and insanity and makes me feel good about the country. But I'm not putting that pressure on Hillary.

[Silent3]

4. Make sure you aren't confusing the odds with the lead

61.8% vs 38.1% in this context doesn't mean Clinton beating Trump by 23.7 percent of the vote, it means a slightly better than 1 in 3 odds of Trump winning. That's too damned high.

If someone was about to throw a six-sided die, and 3-6 means Clinton wins, but a 1 or a 2 means Trump wins, how comfortable would you feel?

[auntpurl]

5. No, I know, thanks for the reminder.

I'm NOT comfortable and I WON'T be comfortable until this damned election is over, but I don't expect her to win by double digits. That's all I meant.

[DemonGoddess]

3. K&R!

Predictwise has her at 70/30
http://predictwise.com/

[UMTerp01]

6. Still too early IMO

Polls will fluctuate. They will become clearer after Labor Day and after the debates. October is when we should really focus in on them and hope there is not some "October surprise" but I will certainly be paying attention to trend lines.

[Cha]

7. Mahalo, George~

[IronLionZion]

8. Nice! Also looks like Johnson is above 5%

and may be tipping it in our favor in some libertarian leaning states: New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado,

We need a big win to overcome any shenanigans to disenfranchise voters or whatever. And also to win big in Congress.

Hillary, Bill, and Kaine have been campaigning throughout Western PA and will likely spend more time in Ohio and Florida.

[George II]

16. You're right about the big win, but I seriously doubt we'll be seeing shenanigans at the level...

...that we've seen in past elections. Even the republican hierarchy is worried about Trump winning.

[jtuck004]

9. On July 12 it was 73 to 27, now 60 40. If he does this well over the next two

months by doing nothing more than what he has been doing, he could win.

No one thought he would do this well doing what he is doing. But he thinks that, since white folk make up 75% of the registered voters, if he can whip up those who don't usually vote...

That strategy could work. And this world won't be big enough to get away if it does.

[George II]

14. That was weeks before they were formally the nominees.

It's now 61.8 to 38.1 after the two conventions.

[jtuck004]

17. Everyone's got excuses. Hope they are good through Nov. n/t

[George II]

19. Facts are not "excuses".

[stevenleser]

20. July 12 and now are not the only two data points and were not dealing with a straight line.

That's the start of the problems with your analysis.

[Bok_Tukalo]

10. Polls Only is 269 to 269

Not sure why 538 thinks Hillary has a better shot in Congress than Trump if it is a tie.

[George II]

15. Polls only is 275 to 261.

[Wounded Bear]

11. I figure at least one of FL and OH to go blue this cycle...

maybe both.

[turbo_satan]

12. I believe that Trump will eventually "-plode" (either ex- or im-)

In my non-expert opinion, Trump seems to be mentally ill and uncontrollable. We're still three months out from the election and I think we've only seen the tip of the oppo research iceberg. If Trump is true to form (and if the opposition plays him like a fiddle), we should see the mother of all "-plosions" right around the end of October. And it's my profound hope that the orange mushroom-cloud takes out everything similarly colored (Red, in particular) in its path, sweeping the GOP from national power for generations.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

13. the Anti-Lake Wobegon factor.

38% of the country is not just below average, they identify with a psycho.

[jcgoldie]

18. Haha!

Yeah I guess here in my neck of southern Illinois we don't have many small towns where all the children are above average. I don't think the men are very good looking either.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

22. but are the sheep nervous?

asks this northern Ill in Noisy an.

From what part of our great flat state do you hail?

[jcgoldie]

23. Alton

I'm just north of STL but live out in the sticks. The folks at the grain elevator like Donald Trump, I'm glad there's enough of you up north to keep IL reliably blue.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

24. On a friday night some years ago,

I had a case with a crazy opponent. He decided to produce his expert at the Holiday Inn in East St. Louis, starting at 8pm.

I was taking the lead, and I had all sorts of impeaching information against his expert. About 15 minutes, after I had proven that his expert was kicked out of med school and did not finish his doctorate, falsified publications, and was generally a liar and a cheat, the opponent slammed his papers on the table and said, "I am calling the police."

And sure enough he did call and tried to have me arrested - because I was attacking his expert.

What a wonderful time in your nape of the forest.

[jcgoldie]

25. Haha

Well you know it wasn't really fair of you to come with facts. We mostly go off feelings down this way.

[BobbyDrake]

21. But I'm CONCERNED, and am filled with the need to remind everyone!

How will I demoralize DU's population if I can't post thread after thread after thread about Trump leading in the polls?

[George II]

26. Still LOTS of time (99 days), but it's looking better and better every day. Now:

Chance of winning the Presidency (% probability)

Polls Plus: Hillary Clinton 69.0% Donald Trump 31.0%

Polls Only: Hillary Clinton 66.0% Donald Trump 34.0%

Now-cast: Hillary Clinton 83.5% Donald Trump 16.5%

More details on their site:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

National (irrelevant, we vote state by state) standing:

Polls Plus: Hillary Clinton 48.3% Donald Trump 45.1%

Polls Only: Hillary Clinton 47.6% Donald Trump 44.1%

Now-cast: Hillary Clinton 48.2% Donald Trump 42.6%

The good thing about these POLLS is that Johnson is wallowing around 5%, 1/3 of what he needs to bog down the debates.

[BlueMTexpat]

27. Sam Wang also rates Hillary's chances

as pretty darn good! http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/01/post-democratic-convention-bounce/#more-16658

But we all need to get out and work our tails off for her to ensure that these predictions come true!

[ismnotwasm]

28. K&R