Great news from Electoral-Vote.com

[LynneSin]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I love this site because it pulls together all the polls and gives an outlook of how the race is going to turn out. It usually even has an option to see the map without Rasmussan polls (because it's GOP funded).

First set of polls shows Hillary 284, Trump 207 and 47EV in a deadheat.

What that shows is Hillary could win without Pennsylvania AND Florida (although I doubt she'll lose Pennsylvania).


http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Senate/Maps/Aug01.html

Senate is looking good too!

We are polling strong in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Illinois with only Nevada looking like a loss. If that happens then we would regain the senate 51-49 (and good thing that Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker or Sherrod Brown were not picked as VPs - we'd lose those senate positions back to the GOP since Massachusetts, New Jersey and Ohio all have republican governors).

I think as Trump gets bat-shit crazier the polls will keep leaning towards Hillary and hopefully we'll pick up some more senate seats to boot!

[lunamagica]

1. K&R. Thanks! I love that site

[RonniePudding]

2. The guy who runs it is a RWer

Or at least he was in 2004, and at one time openly admitted on the site he was for Bush. The way his map is done hasn't changed much since 2004, and still brings back bad memories of that election. For those reasons, I'm not a fan of the site.

[Cosmocat]

4. YEP

It does not appear that he has updated things there at all ...

It is information to consider, but I would not put too much weight into it EITHER way - see my notes below about the Pa Senate race.

[Dem2]

9. RCP is a Republican site

After seeing some of the wing nut articles they write, I would never use that site either.

[Cosmocat]

3. That Pa poll for McGinty is literally unbelievable

As a fellow PA type, I would be surprised if she she was ahead, much less by 7 points.

MAYBE she win can, but Toomey at 36 percent is just not where things are today, that would indicate a massive cratering of his support in a REALLY short period of time. The other two polls listed at RCP in July had him at 49 and 44.

And, trust me, as much as you, I hate that Smarmy wall street bought and paid for POS.

[livetohike]

5. I hope it's true. Maybe Trump is bringing all of the GOP candidates down in the polls. I will love

it if she not only beats him, but by a wide margin.

[LynneSin]

6. But Pat Toomey won his election during a mid-term

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2010
Toomey - 2.03MM votes vs Sestak - 1.95MM votes

To put this into perspective, in 2012 when Casey ran for re-election this was his results:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2012
Casey - 3.02MM votes vs Smith - 2.51MM votes

That means the republican loser in 2012 received 500k more votes than Toomey did in 2010.

Casey got 45% more voters in his 2012 election which was bolstered by the fact that it was a presidential year and highest voter turnout always happens during presidential years. Toomey, who has a much bigger name recognition than that Smith guy who ran in 2012 actually received 24% less votes than the random republican that ran against Casey in 2012.

So Toomey now has to somehow manage to pull out a win in an election year that favors democrats. Because unfortunately the bulk of the voters who tend to slack off during mid-terms are democrats.

At this time Pennsylvania has no wretched voter-id/voter repression bills and with a Democratic Governor it is doubtful that one will pass before the election.

This race is McGinty's to lose. And as someone who has volunteered in the heart of Philadelphia for every presidential election since Bill Clinton - massive voter turnout in Philadelphia pretty much means Toomey is toast.

BTW, Russ Feingold during presidential election years is pretty much unstoppable.

[Cosmocat]

7. Again

I hate the pukebag and i want him to be gone, but the obe poll listed differs A LOT from two recent polls, and there simply is now way he is at 36.

[Wounded Bear]

8. How in the hell can WA be "barely Dem" in the Senate race?

Patty Murray ain't going nowhere but back to her seat in the Senate.

[LynneSin]

11. site ain't perfect

Patty Murray's opponent is unknown too.

She'll win. Site ain't perfect

[treestar]

10. Good news we need to GOTV!

You are right. Trump will somehow deny bad polls. He won't believe it. Everyone loves him. he must be ahead, right!