538 latest update a few minutes ago... 63.3 - 36.7

[lamp_shade]

Last edited Mon Aug 1, 2016, 06:40 PM - Edit history (1)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[ChairmanAgnostic]

1. Still cannot believe he is so high.

[Sheepshank]

15. There will always be a solid 35% group of Republicans that vote only for the party

it's that little group of 8% that could be tugged away that will make it a blow out.

As soon as Hillary hits 48% of the popular vote and steadily maintains that number, the game is over. The electoral College numbers will have been a blow out for Hillary well before the popular vote catches up.

Remember Obama only won by 8% of the popular vote over Mittens, but the Electoral College was a much, much bigger margin.

[Ilsa]

19. You know, family values and stuff, like

Having as many kids by as many wives as possible, etc.

[still_one]

31. 20% of the populace believes President Obama is a Muslim, and not an American

[Sheepshank]

35. they are likley a subset of the 35% of blind following Republicans

[still_one]

38. No doubt about it

[Xipe Totec]

24. Her Drünken Furör is on a vertical dive. nt

[maxsolomon]

46. Small quibble: Trump is a teetotaler.

I don't know what to make of it, either.

I think maybe he doesn't drink because, if he does, he experiences remorse for his actions.

Now, it wouldn't surprise me at all to find he uses pills of some sort 24/7.

[Skittles]

47. he says he was profoundly affected by the alcoholism death of his brother

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/us/politics/for-donald-trump-lessons-from-a-brothers-suffering.html?_r=0

[Xipe Totec]

48. All the worse. nt

[Demsrule86]

28. consider that even people who don't like

him may be voting for the courts.

[UMTerp01]

2. Wow...I see Ohio and Florida are flipped back to light blue

It was light pink when I looked this morning. Still early though. I expect more changes before we settle into a pattern.

[democrattotheend]

3. I'm not feeling great about Ohio

But the good news is, thanks to Obama expanding the map 8 years ago, we don't need it, or Florida, to win. The states Kerry won in 2004 plus New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia are enough.

[geek tragedy]

4. Trump isn't that far from being able to tie.

Iowa is leaning his way, so is NH.

If he picks up NV and wins Romney states + FL and OH, it's a 269-269 tie (unless Trump picks off an EV in Maine or Clinton does so in NE).

[democrattotheend]

10. How do you see him picking up Nevada?

That seems unlikely to me with his attacks on immigrants.

[geek tragedy]

13. seems unlikely, but GOP governor and Senator and Reid would have lost

but for the GOP nominating Sharrrrrrron.

[democrattotheend]

16. On the other hand, Obama won there by 6 points in 2012

And 10 points in 2008. Governor and senator were elected in off-years, I believe, when turnout tends to be lower.

[geek tragedy]

17. good points, but Clinton isn't Obama, and whether she can deliver

the same share of the electorate is unclear.

I'm not saying I expect her to lose NV--I expect her to win--but it's not that crazy.

[Demsrule86]

32. I do not believe Trump will carry Florida

or Ohio.

[geek tragedy]

34. I don't think so either, but him winning those states is at least plausible

even if not likely.

Apparently he's ahead in Iowa, according to both campaigns.

[democrattotheend]

36. When was Iowa last polled?

If it's more than a few days ago I don't buy it.

[geek tragedy]

42. NY Times:

And in some of the most crucial states, Mr. Trump continues to face resistance within his own party: In Ohio, he has feuded openly with the popular Republican governor, John Kasich, a former primary opponent who has refused to endorse his campaign. In Florida, some of the most influential Hispanic Republicans in the southern part of the state have withheld their support, hobbling his candidacy there.


The map is not entirely forbidding for Mr. Trump: Both Republicans and Democrats see him as holding an edge in Iowa, a heavily white state with six electoral votes that President Obama won twice. And some top Trump aides remain hopeful that the larger terrain of the election will shift in his direction.


Trump advisers have argued to national Republicans that they are well positioned to compete in Michigan, a Rust Belt state that no Republican presidential candidate has won since 1988. Should Mr. Trump overtake Mrs. Clinton there, it would allow him a bit more room for error in one of the other cornerstone states.


Strategists for Mrs. Clinton largely dismiss that possibility, pointing out that Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney also hoped to compete in both Michigan and Wisconsin, only to see the states slip away well before Election Day.


Joel Benenson, the chief strategist for Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, said Mr. Trump had not yet made inroads in any nontraditional swing states. “There isn’t any state that they’re making us play defense in, that we wouldn’t already compete vigorously in anyway,” Mr. Benenson said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/us/politics/donald-trump-presidential-race.html

[Demsrule86]

37. It is possible...anything is possible...too far out. nt

[Cosmocat]

14. Yeah

Ohio seems to be the one that Hillary is going to have to fight the most for to keep blue ...

[Demsrule86]

33. Kasich say Ohio will not go for Trump

He is not lifting a finger for Trump. I live in Ohio.

[Demsrule86]

30. Kasich says he won't carry Ohio.

[vollehosen]

5. Wow

This is the Now-cast.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. Beautiful

That is a beautiful site.

And she has defined Trump for good. This will not go good for him from here on out.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. State polls

There are big time state polls coming in all the time that drive these as much as national polls do. Hillary tied in GA and up in MO are 2 big ones. Hillary up big in CO, PA, MI, and WI are more.

[vadermike]

8. Nevada

Will go Clinton We have way more registered Dems here high Latino population and all my GOP friends are mostly voting for Johnson I also know a few Trumpers that moved to Hillary .. So it could be close but I never thought this state would go to trump at the end of the day I could be wrong I just don't see it

[sweetloukillbot]

9. New Hampshire is odd.

It's been consistently red the past few weeks. Is he expecting a third party spoiler effect from Stein/Johnson to throw it to Trump a'la Nader in 2000?

[mjjoe]

21. Maybe a lack of data?

Just two polls in NH were done in July, and the newer polls asked registered voters. I seem to recall a Five Thirty Eight preference for likely voter polls.

It seems some of the polls include Johnson, others do not. Johnson pulled in 10% in the two polls that did.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/

[KMOD]

27. New Hampshire has been starting to lean right

the past few years.

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. I think the whole world will owe Khizer Khan & his family a debt of gratitude. He's been able to do

what Trump's political opponents haven't been able to. They've made his "supporters" think again. Someone should've told him, you NEVER EVER go after a Gold Star Family, no matter what they say.

[Dopers_Greed]

22. Agreed. The Khan family may have just saved civilization

eom

[Tarheel_Dem]

26. +1

[sheshe2]

12. K&R!

[unc70]

18. Looks like 63-37 to me

Did it update again, or am I looking at the wrong thing?

[lamp_shade]

20. It updated again at 5:55

[ffr]

23. Coincidentally, isn't that the same ratio that HRC is winning in Cali?

So as California goes, so does the rest of the nation?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028062852

Percent
HRC:46 :: 46/76= 60.5%
DT: 30 :: 30/76 = 39.5%
total: 76

Math is fun.

[Cryptoad]

25. now cast updated

[underpants]

29. Just about to post that. 12 minutes later 83% -17%. HILLARY!!

[Cryptoad]

50. Trump must be on the Whiskey tonite,,,

he is like a rattlesnake during the dog days of Aug when they r blinded by their own skin getting ready to be shed ,,,, they strike blindly at everything and anything they can sense. He is really ranting tonite,,,,, He just thought he toted an ass whupping last week with the polls,,,,, wait big boy until next week when the polls being take now are released!

[ailsagirl]

40. There are three models-- I think this one is "if the election were held today"

The other two are Polls Plus Forecast:

Hillary: 67.7 dumdum: 32.3

and the polls only forecast:

Hillary: 63.3 dumdum: 36.7

(Sorry-- I don't know how to copy & paste the maps)

[paulkienitz]

39. wow, four swing states changed color since this morning

[DFW]

41. I want to see these numbers on October 10, not now, not yet

If this causes Trump to somehow drop out or be "dropped out" involuntarily at this point, then Kochs, and all the RB (reluctant billionaires) have the time--as well as always the money--to move up Pence to the top spot, and in their eyes, he'll be Ronald Reagan by comparison.

If this is a landslide for us, and I hope it is, I don't want the Republicans to know what hit them in advance. I want it to be a total shock.

[MFM008]

43. I hate polls

But I still like to think of him losing in a landslide.

[Scurrilous]

44. K & R

[mcar]

45. I want this to be a blowout of epic proportions

[AgadorSparticus]

49. good to hear. if it was just the postconvention bounce, that is one thing. but with Khan, yeaaa.

This is going to be goooood! ~99 days to go...