538 UPDATED NOW CAST RIGHT NOW! Hillary 82.2%, Cockwomble 17.7%!!!!!

[MohRokTah]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

[UMTerp01]

1. Wow...so they've now added New Hampshire and North Carolina to light blue

This morning they had NH, NC, OH, and Florida as light pink. Then they changed Ohio and Florida to light blue. Now they've added NH and NC to light blue. Again, its still too early. These polls will still be all over the place (UNLESS this Khan story sticks and Trump loses soft support) but I would like to see where these polls are a month from now and after the debates. But yeah thats quite a shift from just this morning.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. State polls

People only watch he national polls, but the state polls that are being reported are absolutely even more heartening than the national polls. Hillary has a shot in AZ, UT, and GA, that's insane. Trump had to dispatch Pence to AZ to defend there. If they're defending red states they've already lost.

[yellowcanine]

26. AZ and GA look ready to flip. And SC and MO not far behind.

Even Texas is less than a 7 point gap - a larger than usual Hispanic turnout could close that.

[stopbush]

2. I believe the country is responding to the convention held by

the adult party last week.

Trump has lost his entertainment value.

[underpants]

11. I agree. The supposed turmoil of the BoB crowd and the protests actually played into our hands

The public has repeatedly been told that they are supposed to be "upset" and "angry". This was mostly done because the press didn't want to ID Trump supporters as ignorant racists. But, this is the theme and the DNC convention reflected that. If we had had a milquetoast kum by ah convention it wouldn't have fit the narrative. The press thought they were evening the game but they really helped us out a lot. Just an aside.

Yes the intelligent inclusive adult presentation was a stark contrast to fuckmuppet's disaster.

[John Poet]

21. He hasn't been doing anything to help himself since then, either,

has he?

His polling would probably be helped if he were sequestered to a secret, "secure" location, with outer walls that won't pass hot air.

[politicaljunkie41910]

3. Oh darn. Trump wins Utah. I'm disappointed.

[Maru Kitteh]

4. Whoa! Nice looking map there Madame President!

[Kber]

5. That's a pretty big swing!

I bet it moderates a bit, but I bet Clinton maintains a lead anyway.

[politicaljunkie41910]

9. It's highly doable.

The projected popular vote actual percentages are:

Hillary 48.3%
Trump 43.1%
Johnson 7.2%

It's doable.

[bluedye33139]

6. I'm intensely concerned that Clinton isn't at 85%

Just kidding. I ... the concern ... you know

[Cracklin Charlie]

7. On August 1st?

I am in the Twilight Zone.

[sheshe2]

8. I gotta say~

I sure am liking the color of the east coast.

[underpants]

12. Look at Georgia

The Dakotas and even Alaska.

[DemonGoddess]

10. HOLY SHIT!

[Gothmog]

13. These are great numbers

[Glamrock]

14. Goddamnit Indiana

Get your collective heads out of your asses...you're embarrassing me.

[LynneSin]

19. Pence helps in Indiana

it's ok, the rest of the country will make up for it

[TheBlackAdder]

15. Those Scottish slang words never get old! :-)

[Donald Ian Rankin]

17. The nowcast is the least meaningful of their three models.

The other two are showing about 66%, last time I checked.

[LynneSin]

18. We need to fight this campaign like we are 5pts behind

Else we'll get lazy and he could sneak up and win this.

Also if people think Hillary has this in the bag it could hurt some of our senate races. People might stay at home and not vote in some of those key races we have like in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Illinois - 3 very possible pickups

[Mc Mike]

20. Find the bottom, l'il donnie! rec, nt.

[Hortensis]

22. Wonderful. BUT! Swings like that are unstable

and there will be shifts. Trump was able to get it together enough to deliver a 70 or so minute speech at the convention very competently (even if the content didn't go over well). He likely will respond to this downswing by performing better for a while, fail as he has to be himself again, do better again, etc. Itm, we'll still and always hold the lead on all major measures.

[George II]

23. Even better now (8PM Tuesday) - Hillary Clinton 85.9%, Donald Trump 14.1%

[6chars]

27. some of the swing state numbers are encouraging

colorado 91%
wisconsin 91%
michigan 92%
ohio 76%
pennsylvania 84%
virginia 79%
north carolina 72%
florida 75%
nevada 73%
iowa 71%

[benld74]

24. Geez what a suprize red states are Frump-ollowers

[oberliner]

25. Be wary of getting too attached to the now-cast

Be wary of getting too attached to the now-cast, however. It is useful in situations like these, where you want a quick read on how a news event has affected the polls, but it can also jump around a lot on the basis of statistical noise or short-term aberrations in the polls.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-clintons-lead-a-bounce-or-a-new-equilibrium/

[MFM008]

28. i just want to enjoy the moment