538 Now-Cast does my soul good

[piechartking]

Clinton 83.5%
Trump 16.5%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

[unblock]

1. polls-plus at 69%, awesome and much more meaningful than the "nowcast".

[Stubborn]

2. It's over if she can win Florida or Ohio.

And, can someone explain why New Hampshire is so close? I don't get it.

[TeddyR]

3. This is the same 538

That gave Sanders a 1% chance of winning Michigan. Politico had an article today where a number of Dem strategists admit to being nervous about Hillary's chances. My takeaway from the article wasn't surprising that it will come down to turnout - will the minority vote turn out for Hillary or will high white voter turnout be enough for Trump to carry states like PA and OH.

[gelsdorf]

4. Gonna be tough in PA

Pittsburgh in the west, Philly in the east is a LOT of votes to make up in center state. With Pittsburgh becoming a medical/tech hub the coal/steel doesn't play that well. In addition, many left the area in the '80's when steel went bust. The Lunatic Trump would have to get 70-80% of the vote in all the other counties. I just don't see that happening
Of course, I could be wrong

[piechartking]

6. If he can't pull off PA it's game over for him. N/t

[piechartking]

5. Well but I think there's a chance the minority turnout could be quite good

And even if it isn't, judging by some of this polling, she stands a good chance getting a much higher share of non-white vote this time around.

If she does that (which is highly likely, given that a few polls have put Trump with 12% non-white support), non-white can still remain at 29% (unlikely, given the robust GOTV operation) and she could win with less white vote share than Obama.

[gelsdorf]

7. My brother,58, right wing to the core

Navy vet, says Trump is the most revolting politician he has ever seen, lives in west Pa.
Won't vote this time, and he said most he knows feel the same way
Hearsay evidence to be sure, but hopeful