New AJC poll sees HRC leading trump by 4 in Georgia

[cali]

Democrat Hillary Clinton has built a slim lead over Donald Trump in Georgia after one of the worst weeks of the Republican’s campaign, and the Libertarian presidential ticket cracked double-digits, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll.

The poll released Friday shows Clinton at 44 percent and Trump at 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup, within the poll’s margin of error. It is the latest showing a close race between the two candidates in Georgia, a state that has voted for the GOP nominee since 1996.

In a four-way race, Clinton led Trump 41-38, followed by Libertarian Gary Johnson with 11 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein with 2 percent.

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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/08/05/ajc-poll-hillary-clinton-has-slim-lead-over-donald-trump-in-georgia/

[jcgoldie]

2. I love it

Give us GA, MO, AZ I'm getting greedy. The bigger the margin, the better the Senate will look and the more shit she can get accomplished.

[cali]

3. Nevada and Utah would be great additions as well.

[helpisontheway]

4. Chuck Todd said next week would be devastating for Trump. He said another red state

would have Hillary in the lead. So I guess the next polls will include the fallout from Khan. I think the national poll that had him at 33 included some of Khan.

[yellowcanine]

5. I am guessing Arizona. It has been teetering for the last couple of days.

This is also probably why McCain so far is disagreeing with Trump but not un-endorsing him. That will change if Hillary takes a stable lead in Arizona.

[CobaltBlue]

6. 2008 and 2012: Georgia had Republican tilt of +12

In 2008, John McCain—who did not hold the White House for his Republican Party—lost the U.S. Popular Vote by –7.26 and carried Georgia by +5.20.

In 2012, Mitt Romney—who did not unseat Barack Obama—lost the U.S. Popular Vote by +3.86 and carried Georgia by +7.80.

The Republican tilts in 2008 and 2012 Georgia was R+12.46 and R+11.66. It is not that these tilts have to hold. But, if they were to do that, here in 2016, this would indicate Democrat Hillary beating Republican Trump nationally by D+16.

A 16-point margin is tough to imagine. But, given this is Donald Trump, it may not be that tough.

A Democratic national margin of +16 means pickups from North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (Omaha), Montana, South Carolina, Texas, and Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District (Lincoln).

No one is predicting Trump to lose that badly. Those states—along with retaining all of Barack Obama’s re-election map from 2012—would give Hillary Clinton 34 states, plus District of Columbia, and 447 electoral votes. (I haven’t even mentioned Utah. How much that state—usually the Republicans’ No. 1 for percentage-points margins—would shift is not easy to predict.) But, we are still three months from the election. And it can get worse for Donald Trump.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. PA no longer listed as a swing state

GA and AZ are though. According to upshot's 4 model combo predictor.