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Sat Aug 6, 2016, 12:08 PM

 

270 to win is a really cool site where you can customize the electoral map

for the presidential race, senate and house races and gubernatorial races.

http://www.270towin.com/#

Fun to play with, I currently have HRC with 285 evs..

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Reply 270 to win is a really cool site where you can customize the electoral map (Original post)
cali Aug 2016 OP
CobaltBlue Aug 2016 #1
Cali_Democrat Aug 2016 #2
oberliner Aug 2016 #3
CobaltBlue Aug 2016 #4
cali Aug 2016 #6
JaneQPublic Aug 2016 #5
musicblind Aug 2016 #7

Response to cali (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2016, 01:14 PM

1. I use it.

 

270toWin.com is very good.

I'm glad it introduced numerous shades of red and blue.

I like to use a light red or a light blue to indicate a state switching party support (color). So, for example, to predict Hillary Clinton winning Election 2016, I use light blue for states I think would flip to her.

I would like to see 270toWin.com bring in orange for Libertarian Party and green for Green Party. For the hell of it. And I would like to see Yellow brought in to indicate tossup. Purple would be fine too for other illustrative purpose. (Like putting together a map, in general, to indicate states which lean to Republican or Democratic or, for purple, bellwether/battleground.)

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Response to cali (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2016, 01:15 PM

2. Hillary will win 332 electoral votes minimum. nt

 

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Response to cali (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2016, 01:16 PM

3. Only 285?

 

Which Obama states do you not have her winning? Florida and Ohio?

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Response to oberliner (Reply #3)

Sat Aug 6, 2016, 01:39 PM

4. oberliner—You have a good point!

 

At first I missed the "285."

Hillary Clinton would have to nationally underperform the populart-vote margin of a re-elected 2012 Barack Obama, and his 332 electoral votes, in order to suffer a decline in carried states and electoral votes.

And, yes, that would indicate the combined 47 electoral votes from Florida (29) and Ohio (18).

Those states are going to continue their bellwether status. (Florida—all, but two, since 1928; Ohio—all, but two, since 1896 with its unbroken streak last established in 1964.) Ohio has been voting within five percentage points of national margins since 1964. Florida has done that since 1996. And when compared strictly to each other, they're usually no more than 3 percentage points in spread. A Democrat winning nationally by Obama's 2012 result of +3.86 is enough to carry both. (Ohio was D+2.98; Florida was D+0.88.) Hillary Clinton lately polling nationally, over Donald Trump, between +9 and +15 … there is no way she would not carry both Florida and Ohio.

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Response to oberliner (Reply #3)

Sat Aug 6, 2016, 02:40 PM

6. I'm cautious. Anything can happen and Florida and Ohio are, I think

 

particularly subject to what happens over the next month or so.

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Response to cali (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2016, 02:34 PM

5. Thanks for the tip, Cali!

A cool website.

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Response to cali (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2016, 03:06 PM

7. I love that site!

I remember playing with the map last year.

From what I can see, even a worst case scenario where Trump blows it out of the water, Clinton still gets 269. That is if the ONLY swing states she takes are PA, VA, WI and CO.

My hunch is, barring a severe October surprise, she will get at least 300 even if Trump takes both Florida and Ohio, which he won't.

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