Who are the 4 to 5 senate candidates...

[LAS14]

... we can most count on to take back the senate?

I expect this info has been posted before, but I don't recall.

TIA
LAS

[brooklynite]

1. In likely order:

Feingold (WI)
Duckworth (IL)
Bayh (IN)
McGinty (PA)
Hassan (NH)

Prospects:
Strickland (OH)
Ross (NC)
Kander (MO)
Kirkpatrick (AZ)

[LAS14]

2. Thanks!

I live in MA but had already started donating to Hassan.

I urge all DUers to adopt a candidate if their own state doesn't have a contest.

House too! I adopted Carol Shea-Porter from NH.

[Lifelong Protester]

3. I live in WI

I am counting on Russ Feingold, I send money to Duckworth and McGinty.

[pkdu]

4. See below

OH - Ted Strickland
WI - Russ Feingold
IL - Tammy Duckworth
PA - Katie McGinty
NH - Maggie Hassan
FL - Murphy or Grayson

[Dr Hobbitstein]

6. Murphy in FL.

Grayson is polling VERY poorly amongst registered Dems in FL as of recent due to accusations by his ex-wife. Murphy's gonna get the nod.

[cali]

8. alas, Rubio is well ahead of Murphy in head to head polls.

and no, I'm not a Grayson supporter. I'm a long time detractor and he'd do even worse, I believe, against Rubio.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

9. It's my district, and I don't like either of them.

But Murphy has O's endorsement, so he ended up with my vote.

Also, I know you're not a Grayson supporter. I remember you on many of the anti-Grayson threads.

I saw that Rubio is polling ahead of Murphy. Too many idiots in Central Florida, is the problem.

[D_Master81]

5. Bayh in Indiana

I dont see any way that Young wins the race now that Bayh is in it. I think he will make it more competitive than any race Bayh has run in Indiana, but I think every race Bayh has run he has gotten over 60% of the vote, so I dont see him losing this time around either.

[CobaltBlue]

7. Estimate…

Rs — 54. Ds — 46.

Ds need to win pickups with a minimum of 5.


Likely order:

• Illinois. Mark Kirk getting unseated by Tammy Duckworth. This state has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate in a presidential year since 1972 (when Richard Nixon won 49 states with re-election).

• Wisconsin. A rematch…this time Ron Johnson getting unseated by Russ Feingold. Every presidential election since 1976, with the state having a scheduled U.S. Senate election, has resulted in same-party carriage for both the presidential/senatorial levels. (Rs won just once—in 1980 with Ronald Reagan and Bob Kasten who, in 1992, was unseated by Feingold while Bill Clinton carried the state.)

• New Hampshire. Kelly Ayotte getting unseated by Maggie Hassan. The current governor is better on politics than the sitting senator. (Think of Ayotte’s gun vote.) New Hampshire tilts +2 for Democrats. So, this has a lot of writing on the wall—and Ayotte, thankfully, doesn't have the skill of, say, Maine’s Susan Collins and former U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe to escape.

• Ohio. Rob Portman getting unseated by Ted Strickland. The state is on the same-party coattails pattern since 1992. And it is the nation’s most reputable bellwether state.

• Pennsylvania. Pat Toomey getting unseated by Katie McGinty. Coattails effect.

• North Carolina. I haven’t kept track of the Democratic primary—but, like with Wisconsin, the same-party, presidential/senatorial levels dates back to 1972. (I sense the trending next-bellwether state of North Carolina will emerge with Democratic pickups on three counts: U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and Governor of North Carolina.)

More (but not necessarily the limit)…

• Florida

• Arizona

• Missouri

• Indiana

• Georgia

• Iowa