2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNYT: Trump has a 12% chance of winning the Presidency. Take THAT, "Clinton Supporters!"
If I had a 12% chance of winning anything in life, I think I'd re-direct my efforts into something where my chances were better.Note: you're going to have to go to the link to see the graph referenced in the article...it's not a JPEG that I can embed here.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
The Upshots elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clintons chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a field goal from the 20-yard line.
From now until Election Day, well update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Heres how our estimates have changed over time:
piechartking
(617 posts)...there's a chance.
Lance Bass esquire
(671 posts)Jerry442
(1,265 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)And they have some online polls that prove Trump is going to win a landslide victory!
Also the crowd sizes!!
Jim Dandy
(358 posts)... On a Putin presidency.
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)But likely it is not.
Glamrock
(11,795 posts)he'll be rising all the way up to -16%.
bananakabob
(105 posts)But everyone thought Brexit had no chance of passing either.
Let's not get complacent; that's what Trump and the GOP want. They love low interest voters and they thrived on it in 2010.
Miles Archer
(18,837 posts)There are two approaches to this:
1). "Sit back and relax, we've got this."
2). "If you cast your absentee ballots, participate in early voting, and get your ass to the polls on November 8th, we are positioned to win this."
You can probably figure out which approach I advocate.
Yes! And let everyone you know to vote too! Hillary Clinton might not be your favourite (she is for me) but she is better than Drumpf! We must stop him and the Republicans!
Blue_Tires
(55,445 posts)Look for Assange to do another e-mail dump within 72 hours...