538: "Down-Ballot Democrats Should Go After Johnson And Stein Voters"

[Attorney in Texas]

Down-Ballot Democrats Should Go After Johnson And Stein Voters:

The third-party vote is unusually big this year — bigger than in any presidential election since 1992. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein regularly combine for more than 10 percent of the vote in national polls. But despite those relatively strong showings, we know little about the partisan makeup of Johnson’s and Stein’s voters; there are enough of them to be worth tracking but too few to make up a meaningful sample in most individual surveys. Which party these voters favor outside of the presidential race could affect down-ballot races for the U.S. Senate and House.

We can learn a bit more about these voters from new data that Morning Consult has shared with FiveThirtyEight; it’s aggregated from the firm’s national tracking polls from Aug. 1 through Aug. 20. Johnson’s voters are very slightly more favorably disposed toward Republicans. Stein’s voters are overwhelmingly more favorable toward Democrats. If these voters shun the two major parties at the top of the ticket but choose between the two in down-ballot races, they could help Democrats in congressional races.

When respondents were asked which party’s candidate they would back in their district’s U.S. House race, only 53 percent of Johnson backers said the Republican; 46 percent said they would vote for the Democrat. (They were not offered the option of a third-party candidate.)1 That’s a bit surprising — I would guess that a Libertarian candidate would draw support disproportionately from the GOP. But the small Republican edge among Johnson supporters means that, as a group, they would barely affect down-ballot races if they voted for a major-party nominee. Considering that 9 percent of all voters in the Morning Consult data said they were supporting Johnson for president, the 7-point edge in the U.S. House question means that Johnson voters are adding a little less than two-thirds of a percentage point of support to the Republican margin in the national House vote.

Stein supporters, meanwhile, overwhelmingly favor Democratic House candidates (not surprisingly). Democrats win the House ballot among Stein voters 74 percent to 25 percent. That nearly 50-point margin means that although just 4 percent of all voters are backing Stein, they add 2 percentage points to the aggregate Democratic margin in House races.

Great article. Well worth reading (and well worth executing the suggested strategy).

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

1. "we know little about the partisan makeup of Johnson’s and Stein’s voters..."

I'd wager that the Johnson and Stein voters feel they know enough about the two major parties to consiser themselves Johnson and Stein voters.

[Demsrule86]

3. Right they might as well take their vote and flush it...

It is meaningless and has only served to elect (Greens) Republicans in 2000 and 2004. The Libertarians are not much better...you have a party that hates government trying to get elected to the government ...sounds fake.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

4. It's their vote(s). They can do with it as they see fit, but...

I methinks that if any outreach is going to be made to either woo their votes for HRC or down ticket candidates the n the Democrats better have a strategy that is not based in "Hey, you're flushing your votes!"

[bettyellen]

8. The Dems do have a better strategy but it sounds like you haven't been listening?

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

9. Try re-reading post #3. While you're at it read the OP as well.

[bettyellen]

10. You think DUers are formulating or executing the campaign strategy? Lol nope.

But it does sound like you've missed several important speeches that actually were strategic!
And none written or planned by DUers.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

11. I don't recall writing anything of the sort, and frankly I'm glad that they aren't...hopefully.

But the OP was't about me.

But the more I read in this thread makes me guess why some gravitate away from the Dems.

I would wager if the Dems want to pick up a few more vote they could do it with less petulant messaging that their supporters exhibit.

[bettyellen]

12. It seems like you are still having a hard time moving past the primaries

Since tons of great speeches and outreach events have happened in the real world and instead of educating yourself you're fixated on this place and hurt feelings. It would probably be best to move on and get past it . Clinton supporters are not your enemies.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

13. Again, this is not about me.

Try re-reading the OP.

[bettyellen]

14. With all your complaints about insults it does sound very personal to you....

As I said before there IS a strategy thatHAS been enacted to reach more third party voters. And it has nothing to do with anything we say or do here.
If you keep missing it, then you keep missing it.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

15. I know it must be hard, but try re-re-reading the OP and what it says.

[bettyellen]

24. If being snide and looking down on people floats your boat.....

I feel sorry for you. I read the fucking article . I commented. Guess what, it's advising people to do what they are already doing, just like your advice. A day late and a dollar short the both of you. But thanks for the concern.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

26. LOL! Ok! Thou doth protest too much.

[bettyellen]

29. Your posts are snide and reek of a bitterness, yes they doth!

[Hortensis]

40. Seems both sides here prefer losing to being courteous.

Surely that's not really the case. Ten weeks to the election. Is that really too long go without sniping?

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

45. Check out post #1. It was curteous.

#3 got the ball started and then the rest followed.

Give credit where credit is due.

[Hortensis]

47. Yes, Attorney in Texas was courteous and informative.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

44. Opinions vary...

[BobbyDrake]

53. Lol. OMG, so much projection. I can't even.

Best laugh of the day, thanks!

[Demsrule86]

34. Sure they can, but don't call yourself progressive if you plan to vote for any third party candidate

because you are no such thing.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

46. I am fairly progressive...TY very much.

[Demsrule86]

54. If you are saying you plan to vote third party and I hope you are not...

then why are you at Democratic Underground? Again if you vote third party, you are working against the progressive agenda as the Democratic Party and Democratic elected are the only avenue to enact such policy.

[Demsrule86]

2. A complete waste of time to go after Green voters.

They hate Democrats. And if Trump won't make them vote for Hillary than nothing will. I doubt very seriously that many will vote third party in the end...it is always supposed to be significant but rarely is. Even on JPR, I see folks saying Trump has to be stopped...some of them have hinted (and been abused ) that they will vote for Sec. Clinton. I would not waste my time with Greens.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

6. Some will come around...even without the insults.

[Demsrule86]

35. I have nothing for Greens but contempt...they accomplish nothing

and inflicted Bush on us...

[Exilednight]

39. How did they give us Bush? 8% of registered Democrats

Voted for Bush in Florida.

Green party supporters were never going to vote Gore. And yet Greens get the blame while even Gore admits he should have flipped enough Democrats out of that 8%.

If you're going to make an argument, make one based on logic and facts.

[Hortensis]

42. I'm not blaming, but don't forget that Ralph Nader's

candidacy changed the DYNAMICS and DIALOG of the 2000 race for months. The vote counts at the end are not a complete measure because they do not reveal what they would have been if Nader had not run. We'll never know.

[Demsrule86]

55. It is not all about Florida...although that was bad enough

The bottomline is if Nader had not run and had not been on the ballot in Florida, Gore would have won. But, the Greens spent over a year trashing Gore and saying he was the same as Bush...he wasn't the same and how many Americans suffered and died because of Green lies? I despise the Greens and consider them completely useless... they not help advance the progressive movement -in fact you can lay United among other bad laws at their door thanks to Bush's election, and hey actively work against the progressive agenda:sometimes for money...they have taken money in Pennsylvania and Texas from the GOP in order to act as a spoiler and Nader was funded by the right wing as well...so spare me any Green talking points because I can't stand this faux party of nothing.

http://www.statesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/more-gop-green-party-ties-found/nRt8C/

http://www.democracynow.org/2006/10/25/green_politics_pennsylvania_greens_take_gop

[Hortensis]

41. Agree. But considering some went Green mainly

because of sensitivity to the comments of others, it would seem sensible for those who love to toss insults to instead resist the self indulgence.

[still_one]

51. I believe the vast majority of those who consider themselves Green have already

decided. They will either vote for Hillary or Stein.

They are well aware of the issues and what is at stake, and at this stage I doubt very much anything can be said or done that would change their minds.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. This is good

Third Party candidates always underperform their polling numbers in Election Day. So to me, this means that there are more Hillary voters that are choosing a third party candidate right now. In a close election she'll probably do an extra 1-2 points better because of this. If she's up by 3 going into Election Day she'll win by 4-5 IMO.

[GulfCoast66]

7. We may get some Johnson voters

But anyone planning to vote Green that decides to change will be going for Trump. They have stated as much in various places. Unfortunately, some few of them are DU members.

I can respect voters for Johnson as he an his running mate have actual experience and success in their political careers. Those planning on voting Green are just nuts with no attachment to reality. Just a shit load of resentment.

[KMOD]

17. Exactly.

[Hortensis]

43. This is not what 538 says: Greens would go heavily Dem.

Stein’s voters are overwhelmingly more favorable toward Democrats. If these voters shun the two major parties at the top of the ticket but choose between the two in down-ballot races, they could help Democrats in congressional races.

Think about it. Imo, this information would make using Greens for target shooting completely unprincipled politically, instead of merely rather despicable.

[pnwmom]

16. It makes no sense for Democrats to try to appeal to libertarians -- who don't believe

in progressive economics.

[Hortensis]

49. Right. And my take about the libertarian voters is

also that they are most focused on economic issues.

Some might go Dem against hard-right state candidates they felt threatened their personal liberty, though, and there are some really hard-core social con candidates out there. From what I've read, libertarians vary by leaning more or less liberal or conservative on social issues, so it'd be the former.

Although we're talking state races, they might also be especially motivated if toward the end they thought there was any danger of losing to Trump.

[KMOD]

18. The reality is they have two choices

Any idiot that would risk a trump presidency is a selfish ass.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

19. People can vote for whomever they want. Right?

[KMOD]

21. Yes. But I can still think they are an idiot.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

23. Free country and all.

[KMOD]

27. Idiots scare me.

They are certainly free to vote.

But when one make a choice that could potentially give us a President Trump, sorry, they are just selfish assholes.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

28. Do you know any of them?

...these selfish assholes.

[KMOD]

30. Personally? no.

But I see them online.

[tonedevil]

31. I see idiots...

online too.

[oberliner]

22. Yes, people can even vote for Trump if they want

But this site is devoted to convincing people not to do so.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

25. Really? Convincing? Devoted?

Do you believe that hordes of Trump supporters will come here to be enlightened?

[grossproffit]

20. Well, they're idiots for a reason.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

32. The real issue is that

the so-called third parties, the Greens, the Libertarians, and I don't know who else, almost never have candidates for the down ticket races. If they were actually serious about becoming major political parties, they'd run for city council seats and state representatives and county commission seats. Instead, they run for President. Big whoop. If any of them were by some totally bizarre fluke, to win the Presidency, they'd have no place to govern from. They'd have no members of Congress in their party. They'd have no think tanks, no governors, no state legislatures with even a single member of their party.

That's not how it works.

Most people haven't a clue about party politics, which is why over the years we've had the total bullshit about some major politician switching parties and being the VP for the other party. I think the last time it happened was the fantasy that John McCain would be the VP nominee in 2000. Or maybe 2004. The exact year isn't the point. The point is that all those who thought that were totally delusional and had no clue about how party politics works. You don't become a U.S. Senator by being an actual maverick -- one of the most stupid things attached to McCain, by the way. He was always a good Republican. The notion he was a "maverick", an independent in any sense of the word was complete fantasy.

And so it goes. If the Greens or the Libertarians were really serious, they'd start at the very grass roots level and start running candidates for the local offices, including state rep and senator. They would start winning those elections, and could build on that. But they don't. They don't even put up candidates for the national level, for Representative or Senator. How in the hell do they think they could run the country? The ignorance and naivete is stunning.

[KMOD]

33. They lose me with their message.

both parties are the same?

Clueless idiots.

[Capt. Obvious]

37. Word salad that has zero to do with the article posted

Thanks for playing.

[Demsrule86]

36. since you have stated on this site that you would vote for n "down ticket but not the top"

Why don't you tell us how you can be convinced? Yes I saw the posting. Another be nice to Green post...why am I not surprised. We don't need to do anything, and if reaching out to them means tolerate the Greens here, then no. They do not belong on Democratic Underground.

[NCTraveler]

38. One has to work hard to even find a Stein voter. There just aren't many.

The cost to recruit an individual Stein voter would be astronomical. There are much bigger and thoughtful groups to go after. Stein is currently helping Clinton by keeping the Green Party marginalized. We really don't need or want liberal isolationists in our party. They are one of the most horrid groups we have in this country.

[Hortensis]

50. But liberals are NICE people. :) Seriously, we all have

1 vote each and, since we're all engaged, we will probably actually vote on November 8. I think a real argument can be made for that as a virtue -- over all those who won't bother to vote and really need their heinies kicked.

And, after all, being in the same political party is not quite the same as having to spend a long weekend snowed in at a vacation cabin together.

[BobbyDrake]

52. Stein voters are the modern Know-Nothings.

I don't think we should be trying to appeal to the progressive version of the tea party. Mostly because nothing appeals to them but their own purity. Joining us would mean they couldn't complain all the time, which is all they're interested in doing.