2012 Rep House Majority: paying the price for low turnout in 2010: Redistricting and gerrymandering

[amborin]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/07/1158324/-Why-Didn-t-Democrats-do-better-in-the-House

"With all the gains made by Democrats, why did they gain a piddly number of seats in the US House of Representatives?"

"The answer is Redistricting, pure and simple.

The magnitude of the disaster two years ago in 2010 continues to show it's ugly head. Gerrymandering by Republicans cost Democrats chances to make big gains in presidential blue or purple states.

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, and Virginia were controlled in total by Republicans and despite all of those states going for Obama, gains for Democrats in the House were minimal. Indiana also was controlled by Republicans. Texas, Arizona, and Utah are red states controlled totally by the vote suppressors. Democrats did their work where they got the chance, but that really is only Illinois, Massachusetts and Maryland.

California and Washington were redrawn by commissions, so the maximum partisan gain couldn't be extracted.

A nearby example of gerrymandering is Wisconsin. Republicans lost no strength in their federal delegation, plus they regained the state Senate, won by Democrats through recalls. All of this in the wake of an Obama victory in the state."

[sweetloukillbot]

1. Arizona's was redrawn by independent commission

And Democrats are likely to have picked up at least one, and likely two seats.

[amborin]

2. great! and, we just voted to continue our commission here in CA eom

[sweetloukillbot]

7. Yeah they did a pretty good job of keeping it fair - as demonstrated by our close races

Our population is redder, so the Reps have 4 safe seats, Dems ostensibly have 3 safe seats and two are competitive. The Republicans were pissed when the commission returned the maps!

[Awsi Dooger]

3. The House is really not worth looking at

Not in terms of potential takeover. Sam Wang says the GOP now has a 2.5 point edge before any vote is counted, simply due to redistricting and the new terrain. It would take a wave election of massive proportions to swing the House back in our direction, and that's not going to happen unless it's a hated GOP president with a very low approval rating, similar to Bush in '06.

We need to pick off a handful of seats here and there and make a big push in 2020, the next pre-redistricting year. Fortunately, that year coincides with a presidential race, unlike 2010 when we got lazy and didn't show up. Democrats never show up in the midterm following a presidential takeover after two or more GOP terms. I made that prediction here immediately after Obama was elected, that 2010 would be a disaster. The horrible midterms of 1978 and 1994 fell under the same situational trend, the first midterm after retaking the presidency. I was a teenager in 1978 but already sensed that Democrats were content after 1976 and had zero energy. It's held up ever since.

2010 was a debacle because we lost so many important governorships. I hope that's the priority in 2014, retaking some of those spots. You can't allow the other side to quietly build a gubernatorial bench while flailing away at House takeover that realistically isn't attainable. I feel the impact of Rick Scott literally every day here in Florida. Scott was incredibly vulnerable in 2010 but we didn't make it enough of a priority, even though the Miami Herald was publicizing all his corporate scams and the 75 Fifth Amendment pleas.

[amborin]

5. not until 2020! horrible! but

people stayed home in 2010 also out of anger at how things were going.....

[CitizenLeft]

6. 2020 - I've been saying that too.

That's a national election year. This won't happen again in 2020, the next census year, we can reverse this completely.

[modrepub]

4. In PA

The repubs lost all of the statewide elections, lost the senate race by nearyly half a million votes, lost the presidential vote by a quarter of a million votes, got only 48.2% of all the votes cast for congressional seats but won 13 of 18 congresional seats and retained majorities in the state house and senate. You won't here about this from the "liberal" media in this state.

[Marsala]

8. We really don't have much of a chance to improve things in 2014, do we

It would take a miracle to take the House. We need to just focus on keeping the Senate. In fact, I suspect the state races will be more important.

On the plus side, losing the Senate wouldn't be disastrous. Though a Republican Senate might vote down ANY proposed Supreme Court nominee.

[Cosmocat]

9. Pennsylvania is so bad, you literally can only laugh

PA