A poll for the twitching among you

[Loki Liesmith]

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/30/clinton-leads-5-voters-label-trump-inconsistent-im/

Clinton leads Trump 42% to 37% in a four-way contest that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. The gap between the Democrat and the Republican remains five points, 47% to 42%, when those who favor other candidates, or aren’t sure what they plan to do, are asked their preference between the two.

Poll actually shows a larger Clinton lead than last week.

Statistics, people. Some days you get a slew of results you don't like. For no real reason at all.

[SCliberal91294]

1. Saw that.

And yougov has leaned a point or two republican. We will probable have a 3-6 point lead in national average. (Hopefully)

[Doodley]

2. I need a few more like this to calm my nerves.

[Loki Liesmith]

3. You may see the averages close a bit

I don't think Trump will ever have a lead, but some of Hillary's bounce has faded. That was inevitable. But a larger chunk of the bounce has stuck. That's what we wanted to happen.

More of note is that Trump has not gained significantly in most polls. He is still bouncing around or just below 40% in most surveys. Hill can lose support, but it almost always comes back. Trump almost never gains.

Her floor is higher than his ceiling.

[SCliberal91294]

4. Question.

Do you think his numbers will improve after his visit to Mexico? I hope not, if so the voters are dumb.

[Loki Liesmith]

5. Sure, a bit

But only cause his name was in the news and he didn't verbally assault a dead soldier.

That always happens with him. But it won't last and won't be enough to win.

[SCliberal91294]

6. One more.

Do you think most will forget about it in 2 days. Americans have short term memory problems

[Loki Liesmith]

8. A week or two maybe.

I always expect these things to fade in days. But it always takes longer.

That said, I think most of the closing we are seeing is a coincidence. It will spread out by a half point to a point in a week or so, assuming no weeklong focus on EMAILS!

(I have a pet hypothesis I'd like to test that anytime someone mentions emails and Hillary in any context, she takes a hit. I bet the story "Hillary emails cancer survivor well wishes" would hurt her).

[SCliberal91294]

9. So..

You think next weeks polls will tighten or probably stay around that until the debates?

[Loki Liesmith]

16. Tighten by a point or two

3-5 point +D in the two way
1-4 point +D in the four way

[Cicada]

7. We are on the cusp of a golden era

Angry old white guys are dying off. Solar electricity is cheaper than electricity from oil, gas or coal in many plAces with costs declining rapidly. Clean electric cars will soon be far cheaper than dirty gas cars. Genetic engineering will lead to huge medical advances. Extreme poverty is becoming rare. Childhood mortality is becoming rare. Local three d manufacturing will make many goods dirt cheap.

Poll: are you certain to vote? White men without college 62%, white women with college 90%. Axelrod says the superior Clinton ground game will be worth one to three points in swing states.

The future is bright.

[Silent3]

10. I'm bothered by anything that isn't a large double-digit lead...

...because it scares me, whether Clinton wins or not, what the race being even this close says about our society.

[Loki Liesmith]

11. There will not be a double digit win in the USA in your lifetime

Demographics simply won't permit it.

Obama won by 8 in 2008 IIRC and that was considered a landslide.

[Silent3]

12. Which only reinforces what I'm saying about being disgusted...

...with our society. We shouldn't have such a large portion of the population who are either blind to the disgusting demagoguery of Trump, or worse, actually in favor of it.

[Loki Liesmith]

13. Gotta work with givens

remember, half of all people have less than average IQs.

[Ace Rothstein]

14. My biggest concern is that third party votes seem to erode Clinton's numbers.

It seems as if every poll that does a two way and four way race shows a wider lead in a way race. She's the one bleeding votes to Stein and Johnson.

[Loki Liesmith]

15. Meh

Voters are given a "someone else" option in the two way and don't take it. They only ever exercise this if it's verbally offered to them with actual names. This tells me that they aren't committed to third party candidates and likely don't even know who they are.

With that in mind I expect most to revert to R or D.

[Jim Lane]

17. Here's a good source for a recap of poll information

Wikipedia has an article on national opinion polling in this race, and the editors there zealously update the list with each new poll. I usually look only at the four-way race poll results because the vast majority of voters will see both Johnson and Stein on their ballots.

It's helpful for putting short-term fluctuations in context. You can also monitor whether either Johnson or Stein seems to be moving toward the 15% average for qualification for the debates (so far, no).