Folks, about 1 out of every 20 polls taken is going to show Trump leading Clinton

[Loki Liesmith]

Even if she is significantly ahead.

If it's a bit closer, but she is still ahead, this will happen more frequently. But it is a statistical certainty.

[uponit7771]

1. I agree, but it should be obvious why... they CNN LV poll doesn't tell its LV methodology..

... its click bate polling the M$M falls for that's more disturbing

[mythology]

2. That's not quite true

Because the ends trail off equally, about 1 in 20 polls will have an unrepresentative sample, but it is equally likely to show Clinton further ahead than she is as show Trump doing better than he is.

[Loki Liesmith]

3. Hmm...do we know that the polls use two tailed tests?

Obviously you are right if they do. Otherwise 1 in 40 then.