2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumExpect some big national polls to release tomorrow or Monday.
Perhaps late tonight too. The smarter pollsters wanted to avoid the labor day weekend as its effect on the sampling population being at home are unpredictable. So probably there were polls in the field Tuesday through Friday of this week. Maybe today too.
Anyhow it used to be a big deal to get a poll out before a Sunday talking head show, but I don't know how much they matter anymore. But definitely getting one out by Monday morning to help dominate the coverage seems likely.
I expect a consistent 3 point lead for Clinton in the average of polls taken over this period. Maybe 5 if we use a generous filter, but 3 is more likely given current trends.
Funtatlaguy
(10,862 posts)And 5 point leads in both Ohio and Florida.
And 10 point leads in both Penn and Michigan.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Funtatlaguy
(10,862 posts)....I would have also asked for a pony.
triron
(21,984 posts)has Trump up over HRC nationally by 0.7% for likely voters. I don't have any info on their turnout assumptions but it is an online poll. Also I bet it includes the labor day weekend (don't know though).
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Glad the one I saw was the last one before this latest. Also think it leans republican since Obamas approval rating is among the worst I've seen in recent polling. Sorry for the bad info.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)You get the wrong dates.