Election Model Update
Last edited Mon Sep 12, 2016, 01:19 AM - Edit history (1)
Two models: one that only uses current polling, and one that takes the current poll as a starting point and and includes a random drift term...essentially projecting the current scenario forward to the election. See Original Model Writeup (below) for details.
Previous model writeups:
9/1/2016 update
8/16/2016 update
Update with drift included 8/6/2016
Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016
Model projections:
Probability of D win using current polling: 84.5%
average number of electoral votes: 312
median number of electoral votes: 314
most common electoral scenario: 317 electoral votes
Probability of D win projected forward to November election: 64.0%
average number of electoral votes: 288
median number of electoral votes: 289
most common electoral scenario: 289 electoral votes
Current Popular Vote Spread Estimate: +3.8% Clinton (estimated by multiplying statewide leads by turnout 2012 state turnout)
Analysis: Some minor tweaks to model, mostly in the code for grabbing data from HuffPost pollster. I missed an update last week, so I can't say any slide in HRC's poll numbers has been arrested. I can say that her numbers look about the same as two weeks ago, some slippage in the projected numbers, but that's due to changes in the polling variance over time. I use this variance to construct a daily random "drift" variable. In general, the variance in D leaning states' polling has gone up, the R leaning states show less variance. So it's more likely to randomly drift to a Trump win than a few weeks ago. The mean, median, and mode of electoral vote leads for Clinton haven't changed a lot though, which bodes well for continued stability.
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