***Monmouth Iowa Poll Trump 45, Clinton 37***

[piechartking]

4-way

Trump 45
Clinton 37
Johnson 8
Stein 2

Trump's support not growing compared to last time, Hillary support dropped 5 points.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_091516/

[geek tragedy]

1. Iowa is close to a lost cause at this point.

Same state that went for Obama is now embracing white nationalism.

Time to take away their "first in the nation" status in the primaries.

[Divine Discontent]

74. well, if he were to win there, which is still not a given, it'd be so sad since Trump said

"How STUPID are the people of Iowa!?" lol That would sink any other candidate at least 5 points through the entire election cycle.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Wow

Brutal polls across the board. Hillary has work to do. Nothing seems to stick to Teflon Don right now, he's still a monster.

[still_one]

26. Nothing sticks because the media isn't talking about it

[workinclasszero]

51. The media covers up Trump's lies and dirty dealings

While endlessly playing up Hillary's emails, health scares and lies about the Clinton Foundation.

The news media in this country has become as big a monster as the Trump and the republican party.

They will deliver this country straight into fascism if they can, that's pretty easy to see at the stage of the game.

[progressoid]

3. That's pretty depressing.

Monmouth is fairly decent poll.

Thanks for ruining my lunch.

[piechartking]

7. It's still early

We still have almost two months to turn things around.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

44. Weeks away from the election, and

Hilary is trending down. With trump heading up.

Her flu didn't hurt her, but her approach to it did. It reinforced the idea in 60% of the Voting public that she is not honest.

I cannot express just how frustrating it is to see political malpractice being committed by her campaign.

[piechartking]

46. Don't worry

Trump will blow it before the end.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

49. I am very worried. We cannot bank on trump

screwing up. He has. Repeatedly. He insulted muslims, Mexicans, women, people of color, pretty much everyone who isn't a racist, sexist, jerk. And he is in a position to win.

[rtracey]

4. uggg

Come on...Republican state supporting the republican...wow...lets concentrate on the left, left leaning and mid states... forget the republican states..

[geek tragedy]

6. Iowa voted for Obama twice.

They just don't like Clinton there.

That, and Trump's white nationalism is playing very well.

[still_one]

28. That and there are more racists and bigots in this country then we like to admit

Not in Iowa, but I believe the polls in general are under representing certain groups, and over representing others, and as long as we GOTV we will win

[ChairmanAgnostic]

45. Several surveys disclose the most dangerous point.

The energy level of trump voters is high. The energy level of Hillary voters is low.

[The Revolution]

53. Romney got 46%

Trump is basically at the same level. Obama got 52% in 2012. This was a better margin than we had in places like Florida or Ohio, and about the same as states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. There hasn't been some masssive swing toward the Republicans; Clinton is just down 15 points from where Obama was. Not sure why, but probably has to do with media coverage plus a general predisposition for people to believe negative things about her.

[MyNameIsKhan]

5. I still think Hillary will win electoral votes but not by a lot

Iowa is gone atleast for now... She has run a terrible campaign ... She needs to campaign twice a day with Barack on her side. They need to do some giant rallies to excite the base ...

[NCTraveler]

17. She needs to campaign twice a day with a man by her side.

Transparent.

[ooky]

19. She really does

need to campaign twice a day. Her absence has been hurting her. She really needs to ramp up her campaign activities and turn the conversation toward the real issues Americans are facing and her policies vs. his ignorance of real issues. This first debate can't come soon enough for her.

[MyNameIsKhan]

21. Well she is not doing it.. atleast until now...

That brings in the question of Stamina... or poor planning.

[still_one]

29. brings up the question of stamina? Whose talking point is that?

[anneboleyn]

32. Ignore the low post count "concern posters" who always criticize Hillary and her campaign and jump

on every poll that shows anything positive for Trump. They also repeat right-wing talking points. It is so predictable, and I have seen it so many times since joining this site back in 2004, that it is boring. We'll see how many of them are around after the election.

[still_one]

35. Hillary has more stamina in her little finger, than her critics have in their whole body

[ChairmanAgnostic]

47. And debs Schultz fucked things up by not having

Free advertising and loads of face time with more democratic debates. Talk about a stupid, even insane decision and lost opportunity. Sure, it guaranteed her candidate would win the nomination, but it may have doomed the election. Plus, debates are good practice. Teh Donald was a master at destroying his opposition. Hillary didn't get anywhere near as much practice. That was a fatal mistake.

[radius777]

70. DWS did nothing wrong, there were more than enough debates

they get repetitive.

Hillary is an excellent debater, probably her best campaign skill, more debates would've helped her "win" even more.

Your candidate lost because of a total lack of appeal to PoC and women, who voted in overwhelming numbers for Hilary, who won virtually every big diverse state, metro area and swing state across the country. She beat your candidate by a much greater pledged delegate count than Obama beat her in 2008, which was a virtual tie.

[Eric J in MN]

75. 2008: 26 debates. 2016: 9 debates. NT

NT

[treestar]

27. Not because he is a man

but because he is a popular President

[yeoman6987]

31. I don't like when some say she needs the president to help her

I don't see why some don't see how wrong that is. She's capable by herself.

[CreekDog]

36. so you don't want Obama to campaign for Clinton?

big surprise.

[radius777]

41. If Gore allowed Bill to help him out Bush

never would've become president.

Her polls have tanked with two months to go, and the ultimate priority has to be on keeping a dangerous person like Trump from winning the election.

[CreekDog]

67. I call bullshit on this

Hillary helped Obama by campaigning for him.

Biden helped Obama by campaigning for him.

Kaine helps Hillary by campaigning for her

When Bernie ran for the nomination, his endorsers campaigned for him.

When Kennedy ran, LBJ campaigned for him.

It's bullshit to say that there's something wrong with others campaigning for them, that's the idea, to have support and LOTS of people, LOTS of well-known people campaigning for you.

[radius777]

40. This isn't about ego or gender, it's about defeating a fascist.

Barack Obama (and Michelle for that matter) is a charismatic campaigner while Hillary (by her own admission) is not.

Her polls have fallen apart with two months to go, and it's time to call in reinforcements.

She isn't doing good with young people or generating enthusiasm, and the Obamas could definitely help with this, especially in the swing states he won.

[NCTraveler]

64. "Her polls have fallen apart"

No they haven't and that statement alone shows you haven't followed past Presidential polling trends.

'Barack Obama (and Michelle for that matter) is a charismatic campaigner while Hillary (by her own admission) is not."

Point not in contention.

"She isn't doing good with young"

They don't vote.

"Obamas could definitely help with this"

Never said he couldn't.

[calguy]

8. I was born and raised in Iowa...but I'm glad to say

I made a wise choice 48 years ago and moved out of the state for good. Every now and then I go back to visit my siblings and each time I go I'm amazed at the change in people's views and attitudes. It's not the same place I grew up.
Here's a couple jokes my late brother used laughingly to say about it:

Iowa's always been a great state to be "from"

Iowa: It's not the end of the world, but you can it from there

I. diots
O. ut
W.andering
A. round

[helpisontheway]

9. Gosh we can't get a break...all of the polls

are either bad or are trending the wrong way. First with national polls and now state polls. This sucks.....

[SaschaHM]

10. Yup. Non College educated voters are shooting themselves in the foot.

[doc03]

11. A few weeks ago everyone here was gloating on how

much Hillary will beat Trump. I said he beat 16 other Republicans in the debates and everyone said Hillary will destroy him in the debates. We should see by now when she debates Trump the media will find some misstatement Hillary makes and give Trump a free ride. We are going to lose this.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

48. Bingo.

[Arazi]

65. Yup and anyone expressing concern was a troll

Depressing

[doc03]

66. I was accussed of being a troll or a Bernie supporter with sour grapes.

After the seeing where Trump knocked out every (halfway) sane Republican
candidate are we the only ones that saw the handwriting on the wall. I am not sure if the MSM
just wants a horse race for ratings or they want Trump to win. Myself I think it is the latter, Trump
will lower their taxes and be a gold mine for ratings. I think we will know for sure in the next couple weeks
if MSM starts putting their thumb on the scale for Hillary or they keep backing Trump.

[Thrill]

12. Very concerned now

No sense trying to hide it. You have to be considering Trump is pathetic candidate

[Dawson Leery]

13. From the home of the most reactionary/loser/brutish 'sport' around.

[Dem2]

14. Thanks for the ray of sunshine

Not.

[triron]

15. First

This again is likely voters. This poll was conducted after HRCs bad press after the 9/11 incident. May have had a very negative effect for her especially among independents where her support there has dropped apparently precipitously.
My hope is she will get big boosts from the debates, but who knows. I sure don't see a bump from her relatively good performance (and Trump's dismal performance imo) at the CiC forum last week.

[DeminPennswoods]

16. Likely voter screens

If you look at the cross tabs or internals of these polls, a lot of the tightening seems more due to the "likely voter" screens used by the pollster than actual tightening. In this poll, virtually nothing changed since their last poll except that Dems by 92% now support Clinton. Trump is supported by only 81% of Rs.
This isn't necessarily a winning formula.

I linked a NYT article on LV screens in another thread, but the bottom line is that it's not an exact science.
Using myself as an example, I turned 18 just after we got the vote. I was registered and voted in that election, but had I been polled I likely wouldn't have passsed the LV screen since I'd never voted before.
After that for many (dumb) reasons, I didn't register or vote again until 1992 although I folliowed politics pretty closely. Had I been polled for that election, I probably wouldn't have passed the LV screen because of the long hiatus between voting. I've voted in every election (state/municipal/presidential/primary) since then, know my elected officials and always say I'm "enthusiastic" about voting. I'm sure now, I'd be a top scorer on the LV chart.

As for independents, don't buy it. Again, using myself as an example, I was first an R (I know, I know...), but later realized it wasn't the party for me. But, instead of becoming a D right away, I spent a few elections as an indy before finally registering as a Dem. As an independent I voted for Dems so I was "independent" in name only. I think it's that way for a lot of Rs right now. They feel their party has left them, so they're independent, but still in their souls, they are generally Republican voters.

The bottom line is I think the polls might be showing an "enthusiasm" gap and also are capturing many Rs turned Is in their LV models.

[triron]

18. Yes

saw that regarding support from same party for each candidate as well. Don't think Iowa is lost yet. Many voters say they have made up their minds but I don't believe it yet. Polls have been very reactive lately it seems.

[MyNameIsKhan]

23. Obama won Iowa in 2012 by about 95k (total 882k) votes and 5.7%

To be down in Iowa by 7 points is loosing 95k votes. Romney won 730k votes, Rump is not going to get more that this. There is not much demographic changes in Iowa. This means Clinton is down to about 650k votes or loosing 20% of electorate from Obama Coalition. Even if some of Obama voters moved to Rump...

This is not making sense at all.

There is about 2% population increase which will factor about 15-20k more votes.

[book_worm]

20. Iowa may be the most likely Obama state that Trump gains

I hope that is not the case, but increasingly it is looking so.

[BumRushDaShow]

22. It would be odd given she was born and raised in Chicago

yet she seemed to have adopted other areas of the country where she lived and worked.

I still think her campaign is (correctly) looking at the strongest 270 path and aiming for it (where certain states would be must-win for Trump and if even one is taken away, he's done).

[pstokely]

42. The Demographics favor Drumpf

young college educated voters leaving the state

[MyNameIsKhan]

24. I seriously doubt this poll down 7 points ( that is insane )

Or means about 150k+ votes or 20% of Obama 2012 voters.

[BigDemVoter]

25. Not a suprise.

State is full of people willing to vote against their own self interest. They haven't learned a thing from their next-door-neighbor, Kansas.

[still_one]

30. fuck the polls. Just get out and vote, and leave the media hacks with egg all over

their face

[Laura PourMeADrink]

33. shit. Monmouth top poll for accuracy per 538. Along with Marist nt

[StevieM]

34. This is the poll that I have been dreading. Hillary went from considering Vilsack for VP to totally

ignoring the state. She hasn't done any campaign appearances there.

[Warren DeMontague]

37. Man, what the everloving fuck is wrong with Iowa this year?

[Bigredhunk]

38. It's a dump

Not sure why a state which went for PBO twice is not polling well for Dems now, but:

1) We have a dork governor who inexplicably is the longest-tenured governor of any state, ever. I don't love Vilsack's work as Sec Of Ag (Tomsanto), but I liked him as governor. I wish he'd have stayed in office instead of leaving. He's so much better than this clown.

2) We have 2 republican senators. Grassley turns 83 tomorrow. He'll win in November (we never seem to have good people to run against him). He'll probably run again in 6 years when he's almost 90. He'll be IA's Strom Thurmand. The other is Ernst. One of her claims to fame was castrating pigs on a farm. It was embarrassing that it was used in ads for her, yet somehow it helped her (folksy or some shit).

3) Our local (Eastern IA) state rep is an asshole republican who'll probably win again in November. He self funds with his millions of $$, along with a little money from the Kochs.

4) Steve King. Yeah, it's a sadder part of the state (rural Western IA). But still.

Iowa really blows.

[Warren DeMontague]

39. Right, I witnessed the whole Joni Ernst Hog Castrate-a-palooza.

I just have a lot of friends who went to the U of I, and I know the state historically has a solid progressive streak. I mean, shit, look at Gay Marriage.

It's a bummer. Sorry to hear it's trended away from that.

I'm so glad I live where I do.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

43. Why is it so hard to state the obvious?

A. Trump is a master at grabbing and keeping attention. It really is all about him. He is a con man who does nothing but sell himself. Sadly, in our TV and internet age, it works.
B. Hillary was, is, and will be a lousy candidate. She makes repeated, almost shocking unforced errors that a conman like trump will exploit and jump on each and every time.
C. There is a sizable, not a majority, but clearly a large minority of Democrats and liberals who suffer from Clinton fatigue. She has done nothing to reach out to them, and now with weeks left in the campaign, it may be too late. All too many democrats dislike and mistrust her, and she has only made that problem worse.

Without fail, every political conversation I have, with friends, family, clients and peers, ends up the same way. They uniformly hate and fear trump, but they cannot ever get behind the idea of voting for her. THAT is the sad reality we face. I deal with the public a lot and I have yet to meet one Hillary supporter, and I live and work in Cook County (Chicagoland). Here and in Wisconsin I see Trump signs. I have yet to see one for her. In ILLINOIS, no less!

It was our election to win, and Hillary managed to screw it up. We are going to lose, and I honestly fear for our country's future under trump.

Funny, some of us here warned folks about her weaknesses, and were routinely attacked, lambasted, even tossed off the Hillary forum. I am not saying that sanders or any other candidate running would be doing better, but it would be hard to do worse than the Hillary campaign has done. ( Oh, if only Biden or Kerry had run. Sigh.)

Here is what she needs to do. NOW.

Cut all ties to the foundation. All of them, including her family's ties. Maybe even shut it down. Is her campaign so blind to the fact of how bad those optics are? Which leads to:

Fire several of her top aides. They have been great at protecting her, but are extraordinarily lousy at selling her as a candidate. And this leads to:

Send Bill home. His age, his weaknesses, and his ego do her no favors. They do, however, drive home the fact that she has nothing in common with the voting youth and millennial voter.

Stand in front of collapsing bridges, unpaved, potholed streets and collapsing power, water, and sewer lines, and announce a major rebuild of our country - while pointing out in detail how many jobs that would create in the city or town.

Stop attending ritzy millionaire fundraisers. How can she attract young and poor voters when they see her as part of the problem, and not as someone with a solution? When a group of millionaires hold a fund raiser with her, she looks exactly like Mitt Romney in the eyes of many potential voters.

Go after Wall Street. By name. Demand the breaking up of banks and lay out a plan to split up investment banking and what used to be normal consumer banking.

But she won't. And now we face a nachtmare of trump as president. I wonder if I can immigrate to New Zealand or Australia.

[Monk06]

50. It's a four way poll in a two way race Without Johnson, Stein Hillary would be leading

[ChairmanAgnostic]

54. by one measly point.

If this doesn't have her campaign worried, they need to find new employment.

[liberal N proud]

52. What are you going to do about it?

Get out, get involved and GOTV!

Put some time into this thing and help turn it around.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

55. please see my post above.

The Hillary campaign suffers from a YUGE support deficit disorder. People just don't like or trust her. Yet, multiple polls show that Trump supporters are energized and will not change their minds, even if Trump is found in bed with his daughter.

Please tell me how to energize support from people who don't like or trust her. I really want to know, because I really do not want a Trump presidency. All of my acquaintances, friends and family and people I meet through work, say the same thing. They hate and fear trump, but they dislike and mistrust her.

GOTV is nice in theory, but how? When the first thing out of people's mouths is that they cannot see themselves voting for her?

Seriously, I want your advice and insight on how to deal with 60% of the population.

[liberal N proud]

56. Well, I guess sitting at home on the internet complaining about it solves everything

How do you know it won't work if you don't get out and volunteer?

I have spent the last 4 weekends knocking on doors and registering voters at events. I have only had 2 tell me they were not interested and even captured a commit to vote on the street between knocking on doors.

GOTV is the only way your going to win this.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

58. Did you even read what I wrote?

I have been going out and raising the issue. Repeatedly. I am simply reporting what I hear. And it aint purty.

Our biggest problem is that we are dealing emotions, not fact. Clearly, she has far more experience, and having a SecState as president has happened only 6 times before, with Van Buren being the last one. (The first 4 of 6 were all SecState before being president).

We can beat Trump on facts, and we have plenty of ammo. But emotional decision making is far more common, and emotions are far more powerful than logic or rational thought. The toughest emotion we face is that people actively dislike her. To get out the vote we have to change their emotional status. And then the flu response occurs, cementing that mistrustful image once again. She is not helping herself, and her campaign is not helping remake her image. To the contrary.

[radius777]

73. If those voters won't turn out to vote against the fascist Trump

and vote for one of the most qualified candidates (and potentially the first female president), then in many ways they are also in the 'basket of deplorables'.

Those people have bought into 24 years of far-right/far-left smears and sexist narratives against Hillary. The reality is that she really is no different ideologically or otherwise from Obama or Biden or Kerry or any other mainstream Dem. And numerous reports have shown her to be actually more honest and transparent that most politicians.

If those voters can't see that our decent/qualified/experienced Democratic Nominee isn't better than a crackpot fascist, what is there to say.

Do these people care about women's rights, worker's rights, the environment, civil rights, overturning Citizen's United, enforcing Dodd-Frank and other financial regulations? Do they care about the Supreme Court (Trump has promised to fill Scalia's seat with a clone of Scalia)? Do they care about the Constitution? Trump has promised to sue journalists/media and basically create a fascist police state. Do they care that he could sell or trade national secrets to dictators like Putin? Do they care that if Trump wins white nationalists, neo-nazi's and other alt-right hate groups would be emboldened to act out in violence against many vulnerable groups? Do they care about millions of immigrants (including supposed "anchor babies" who were born here) being rounded up by a gestapo force and deported?

This a moment of reckoning in American history, the choices are clear, and alot of this (lets state it for what it) is good old fashioned white privilege. They aren't the target of Trump's deplorables, so why should they care, right.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

59. and yet, the messenger is blamed

for delivering the news.

Hillary needs to clean house in her campaign. She has to change tactics. But it won't happen. And Hillary, we, and our country lose as a result.

[piechartking]

60. I really think Trump is peaking too soon

And I think he is getting very overconfident. We'll see a little bit how he's feeling about it at this press conference he's giving today.

If he's feeling good, riffing, saying stupid shit about birtherism, then we'll know he's way overconfident.

That's a good thing for the Clinton campaign.

If he's still on message, apologizes and is humble...look out.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

61. Press Conference? Huh? What is that?

Oh, yes, that is where a republican stands in front of the media and answers their questions. In the process, they get free air time, exposure to the public, and appear like they are in charge and not in fear of press conferences.

Now, why can't our side do that? Is there some law or statutory ban?


(S N A R K _ but also a serious complaint about how Hillary is campaigning to lose.)

[misterhighwasted]

63. When is the last time you heard MSM talk about her campaign platform? Her issues.

Maybe attack the Media's 24/7 Trump TV ad Blitz instead.
Go after the source of the real problem.
Because its not Hillary nor her Campaign nor her TV ads.

[misterhighwasted]

62. What if they allowed polls to tell us the truth?

Imagine how NOT CLOSE this race would be.

MEDIA CREATED TRUMP

HILLARY CREATED HILLARY

Screw the polls.
Vote

[pnwmom]

68. So? Why would anyone think a 95% white, mostly rural state is as good bet for Hillary? n/t

[Eric J in MN]

76. Trump and HRC are both white. Neither lives in a rural area. Neither is famous for farm policy. NT

NT

[pnwmom]

77. HRC's base is heavily made up of people of color. Her greatest support is not in 95% white states.

It's in diverse states with high numbers of African American and/or Latino voters.

Trump, on the other hand, does well in largely white states with lots of Republican voters.

[Midwestern Democrat]

78. Until this year, it was considered to be the easiest of the swing states for Democrats to win.

We won the state in six of the seven presidential elections from 1988 through 2012; if the state permanently slips to solid Republican, it's a noteworthy development.

[BigDemVoter]

69. Sorry but Iowa can go to hell in a handbasket.

I'm an equal opportunity asshole in that I can say the SAME thing about my home state.

[Hekate]

72. There's a lot more to the election than Iowa. Just sayin'