2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver predicts Hillary will win 1st debate Insta-poll. But pundits will declare Trump winner
Polling expert Nate Silver predicts that 60-70% of debate watchers will say Hillary Clinton won the first debate.
This will be followed by "60-70%" of Mainstream media pundits claiming that they think Trump won the debate.
Why is this important?
Because the power of the media is so great, that I foresee non-debate watchers believing what the pundits say. Even debate watchers who thought Hillary won might be influenced by the media's opinion. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/776552007092109313
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Should we give up ? Fuck this election sux I hope like hell someone in the media doesn't fawn over trump douche after the first debate I hope Hillary stomps his ass so there is no question who won
still_one
(98,883 posts)control the message anymore.
They will be marginalized for the small minds they are, and will be left again with egg all over their ugly faces.
By the end of the first debate, it will be very clear what the stakes are with a trump/pence ticket, and the jeopardy they poise to women, POC, the country and the world.
The media will not call them out on their lies and distortions, but Clinton, her campaign, her surrogates, and supporters will not let it stand, and they will expose everything, in spite of the sorry excuse we have for the media. They won't know what hit them.
vadermike
(1,421 posts)Lips to gods ears .. Hell yeah let's kick their asses !! No more pussy footing with these fuckers ! 
still_one
(98,883 posts)and they won't be duped
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)weak line drive that failed to win the game, though, and many will alter their perceptions accordingly.
Nevertheless, Rachel and others suspect Trump may still back out. Because he knows he's up against a power hitter.
Kablooie
(19,108 posts)Hillary and her people aren't marketing experts, they are politicians.
Trump is nothing but a media diva.
The public responds to emotions much more strongly than ideas and Trump has that sewn up.
Hillary will swamp him with knowledge and intelligence which should make her the winner but ...
Trump will spew shocking and outrageous statements which will grab all the headlines and drown out any of Hillary's reasonable message.
I really fear that just like in the primaries, Trump's tabloid blather will be what everyone talks about.
There are legions of easily manipulated voters that will simply vote for the familiar and since we hear 90% Trump talk that's who they will vote for.
It's scary.
still_one
(98,883 posts)
RobinA
(10,478 posts)prediction as to how it could play. My hope is that Trump oversteps (what are the odds) and some nonsense by him carrys the day. It won't change the minds of his base, but it could affect his momentum. I sense that the press has shifted a bit. This weekend, the NYT and the Philadelphia Inquirer called him on his birther bull on the front page above the fold. The Times hammered him elsewhere as well. Now, nobody reads the papers, but I'm hoping the unprecedented call out signifies a change in the coverage.
TomCADem
(17,837 posts)Far right, racist and xenophobic groups have gained significant power in Europe. Why should we expect the US to be different. Many Americans probably are secretly looking forward to Philippines style blood bath with the President wiping out undesirables.
still_one
(98,883 posts)were saying things like "Hillary was defensive, angry, long winded", and other bullshit
I have so much animosity toward the so-called media in this country.
They have demonstrated without a doubt that for the most part they are a group of misogynistic assholes, who are getting paid an exorbitant amount of money for being assholes. They sure aren't journalists, and they are an embaressment to the Ed Murrow's, Walter Cronkites, Harry Reasoners, and all the other greats during that time period.
TrishaJ
(884 posts)in 2000. He clearly wiped up the floor with the Moron; but the media focused on a sigh he made over one of the Idiot's answers.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Hillary has the same problem.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)He spews nonsensical stuff. I'd love her to ask the moderators if they felt they got- or understood- some of the answers he gives. Right up front call him out when he switched topics and obsfucates.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Maybe he'll come down with walking pneumonia.
RobinA
(10,478 posts)I think this would result in more accusations that she is the B word. Hopefully the moderators will pursue non-answers.
maddiemom
(5,179 posts)
DemocratSinceBirth
(101,853 posts)still_one
(98,883 posts)that trump spews out. At the same token, I feel that a good number of the talking heads will try to characterize Hillary in a negative way. They won't be able to do it with content, so they will do it with descriptions of angry, aggressive, etc, but it will fall flat, and those that do that will look like the fools they are.
There will be a record number of people watching this, and as much as some in the media would like to characterize it a certain way, the public will not be duped.
A perfect example was the Democratic Convention, and I think Hillary will shoot it out of the park
King_Klonopin
(1,379 posts)The problem is the resistance from the media to report it truthfully and factually.
To call it as it TRULY unfolds before their eyes and not the way they want it to be
in order to sell their false, field-leveling, close-horse-race, click-bait narrative ?
That ain't gonna happen on Fox !
You watch; we will hear about her irrelevant affectations spun in negative ways and
Trump's spun as positives -- or not at all. I can hear it now:
She laughed; she didn't laugh. She sighed; she didn't pay attention. She looked tired;
she looked tensed up. She was shrill and domineering; she looked meek and overpowered.
No matter what she says, the content will be ignored. No matter what she does, it will be
interpreted critically and in a sexist bias.
The whole pneumonia bullshit was his dog whistle messaging of saying "she's not a man;
she's a weak woman." same as when he said she didn't "look presidential" (i.e. she looks
like a woman) If he had contracted pneumonia, nary a word would have been said about it.
The double-standard is out of control at this point. GOD, I hate our news media !
p.s. Trump needs to be hit on bribing the A.G.s of Florida and Texas and for not releasing his
tax returns, ALL NIGHT LONG.
ailsagirl
(24,287 posts)"... to anyone with a brain, she will make him look like the idiot he is"
How can it be otherwise? The guy knows nothing-- he's unable to attack an argument skillfully (if at all)-- and he's a lousy public speaker. Someone on DU recently said that he has "charisma"-- not to thinking people who value a strong and effective President, he doesn't.
RobinA
(10,478 posts)that being an idiot is a negative when trying to be elected to the Presidency, and I think we have ample proof that this is not the disqualifier one would hope.
King_Klonopin
(1,379 posts)that you can pander directly to idiots and get 43% of the vote -- amazing!
(Sorry for the delayed reply)
Charles Bukowski
(1,132 posts)The MSM has been grading Trump on a curve throughout this election cycle, but even they couldn't spin Trump's dreadful performance at the commander-in-chief forum as a positive. It truly was a buffet of stupid from the Donald. HRC got by far the tougher questions and easily came out looking better.
Trump's debate performances won't be any better. He'll get crushed.
LenaBaby61
(6,991 posts)Not only will he tRump be declared the winner by the so-called Liberal Media or so-called Liberal Pundits if he can come in and stand up straight and not throw up on his shoes or refrain from calling Hillary Crooked Hillary or the C-word, but I have the sneaking suspicion that he'll try to flip the script on Hillary and call HER the birther then cite that LIE which has been debunked that she said Pres. Obama wasn't born in the USA.
I in the have a feeling that during the first debate is where he will grit his teeth and almost wet himself because he hates saying sorry to anybody even though he's wronger than 3 right shoes--but he will THIS time--and say that Pres. Obama was born in the USA with the WHOLE world watching then look into the camera--he's not man enough to look into Hillary's eyes--and call her a birther in front of the world. I pray she's ready and lets him have it with BOTH barrels right back.
I have no doubt that HIllary will WIN all of the debates if they take place because she knows her stuff and is very intelligent. However, the media's grading tRump on a curve as big as Mount Everest, and a low as the Mariana Trenches. Shame, but tRump can't win. SO many people are banking on Hillary winning these debates and she will, but the media will declare tRump the winner. That's so frustrating. He will be rewarded for his total ineptness and mediocrity. Hillary will be punished for her superior intellect, knowledge of all or most things political and for her competency. SMDH 
radius777
(3,921 posts)he always does, i.e. figures out what his faults are that he thinks the opponent will hit him on, then accuse the opponent of it, then when the opponent hits back, to the viewer at home it all seems like 'he said, she said' shouting match, and the original critique of him gets lost.
He has zero understanding of policy or anything else, and will simply resort to his typical schtick to try to get Hillary and the moderators off their game. She needs to be ready for this.
It's all about dominance. Viewers judge who 'won' more on dominance and who seems to be commanding the stage and landing one liners, not on who is factually more correct, and Trump clearly understands this.
RobinA
(10,478 posts)the take home from that was that Lauer did a lousy job. I didn't watch it so I have no idea what went on. But judging by what got said the next day, one would get the impression that Hillary wasn't even there, Trump was there and said some typical Trump stuff, and Lauer was really bad. I didn't hear one word about Hillary at that, it was all Lauer, Lauer, Lauer.
Lunabell
(7,309 posts)That is why he is afraid to debate her with a reasonable moderator.
Chemisse
(31,348 posts)The bias this election season has been stunning.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)
Mike Nelson
(10,943 posts)...prediction. I believe the advisors are telling Trump to play "nice guy" and not go for the crude performances that won him notice in the primaries. If he trips up, he will go on morning shows and "make news" to cover up his errors. Hillary will not trip up, she will win the debates by any normal measure. She was great at the "forum" - where she was grilled by Lauer and called "defensive" - and Trump was terrible. The media did not report it correctly.
vadermike
(1,421 posts)You guys think he pulls out of the first debate and screams about it because of Cooper ? He might. He pulled out of one of the Fox debates. His anger may get the better of him!
radius777
(3,921 posts)and seemed weak. I doubt he will pull out, plus he is a media hog, can't resist such a big spotlight.
Lester Holt (not Anderson Cooper) is moderating the first debate.
Frank Cannon
(7,570 posts)Gotta look presentable for his debate date with the Donald.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)I feel he will be fair, and therefore I predict much whining from the right after that debate.
Frank Cannon
(7,570 posts)The proud network that gave us seven hit seasons of the reality TV show The Apprentice, starring Donald Trump.
I'm sure Donald's portrait was scowling down at them in the Comcast executive conference room when senior management laid out for them exactly how things would be.
Don't think for a minute that Lester has any actual journalism in his constitution whatsoever. He knows the difference between what a network TV talking head makes and what the 6:00 anchor at the Schenectady affiliate makes.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)I first took notice of Lester during the post mortum of the 2000 election debacle when he was on MSNBC. I thought he did an outstanding job interviewing partisans and pundits kvetching about Florida in a straightforward and fair manner. I was very happy he got the desk at NBC when Williams was tossed.
I grew up watching Lauer when he was on PM Magazine in Providence. He's a puff piece reporter and nothing more.
A lot of people work for NBC good and bad, I don't put them all in the same bag.
emulatorloo
(46,155 posts)Holt is not.
Frank Cannon
(7,570 posts)Your bright-eyed enthusiasm encourages me. It truly does. We need more of that in the cynical times we live in.
But you also probably believe in Santa Claus and that your dad, who went to the corner grocery 20 years ago "to get a pack of cigarettes", is coming back.
BumRushDaShow
(169,761 posts)Reality Show Performance™ is their key. That is their curve. 'Nuff said.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)
MoonRiver
(36,975 posts)Media could not save Palin and Perry from their ignorant gaffs. We will see.
BlueMTexpat
(15,690 posts)I still believe that's up for grabs. Trump couldn't even face off with a mild-mannered woman pastor in Flint and had to wait until he was safely among his supporters to trash her. I personally believe that Trump is terrified of facing Hillary in a debate - or anywhere else, for that matter.
Like all bullies, he is a coward.
Paladin
(32,354 posts)If Trump shows up at the first debate and manages to make a few grunting noises, the MSM will proclaim him the winner. The soft bigotry of low expectations, once more.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)In the debate. Who knows what Trump will do, he is already showing fear of the debates by complaining about the moderators. I expect Hillary will continue winning the debates, she is experienced. Trump appeared very nervous when the female minister approached him in Flint, don't know if he has the strength to debate one on one with a female.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Cosmocat
(15,424 posts)no shit ...
betsuni
(29,078 posts)No way they don't.
zenabby
(364 posts)there are no teleprompters. Which means, you have to do extensive prep work and decide what answer you are going to give to what question and message it carefully. From what I'm hearing, Trump is not prepping that way at all. He probably gets a list of landmines he should avoid, but that's it. With that, it's back to "loose cannon Donald" - whom we can easily bait with a tweet or a minor putting down. Exhibit 1 - the softball debate with Matt Lauer. I think Team Hill will carefully plan her talks to get Donnie riled up.
Mz Pip
(28,456 posts)As long as Trump doesn't piss on the moderators he'll be declared a winner.
The bar is on the floor for Trump and up by the ceiling for Hillary.
Cosmocat
(15,424 posts)That said, good he put it out there on the 1 in 1,000 chance it might provide element of shame so the assholes might not do it.
Cosmocat
(15,424 posts)even though she smiled 2 times more than Trump ...
BootinUp
(51,325 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)SHRED
(28,136 posts)The media will fawn all over it. The new Donald!
TeamPooka
(25,577 posts)unless you dose him with horse tranquilizers.
maddiemom
(5,179 posts)Trump doesn't have the self-control to play Mr. Nice Guy for very long. Hillary won't fold the way his primary rivals did. She's been taking slings and arrows from the really hard guys for twenty-five years and has more than held her own in dealing with bullies.
aquamarina
(1,865 posts)I have never seen anything like it. They are playing an incredibly dangerous game with all of us. Clinton was running away with the election after her convention - even in states you would never think possible. But in steps the media doing everything in its power to make this a close and potentially contested result. I dread November 9th if Clinton doesn't win by at least 5 points. If you thought Bush v. Gore was a nightmare Trump v. Clinton will be a nuclear explosion.
GoCubsGo
(34,915 posts)The bar they set for him is mighty low.
Nitram
(27,749 posts)tavernier
(14,443 posts)Sadly, Fox is alive and well in most homes in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc.
maddiemom
(5,179 posts)TeamPooka
(25,577 posts)the media will say HE WINS!
ThoughtCriminal
(14,721 posts)Silver just made the easiest prediction ever.
Here's a sampling:
http://www.nashvillepost.com/home/blog/20412045/palin-debates-the-reaction
cally
(21,868 posts)I'm disgusted by the evident media bias this election.
joshdawg
(2,966 posts)drumpf is the "winner" of the first debate, even days before the debate happens. They loves them some drumpf. They especially like the little hands and that thing on top of his head.
asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)he is unable to make a coherent sentence - word salad is what we will get..Hillary is going to have to contain herself from laughing - no eye roll, no wisking away at her shoulder with her hand..smiling like the cat with the canary - only don't spill any feathers..
trump is only what the media has created..an empty suit..hollow with no morals and no conscience..I don't hate, I only have pity for this deplorable manchild...
I would love if mark Cubans is there...hahahahahah
randr
(12,648 posts)Opps, almost forgot his most argent fans
AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)Stellar
(5,644 posts)when Mitt didn't win.
btw: Just thinking of what Republic0ns would be saying today had Mitt taken over at that time with this economy.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)Same thing in first debate in 2000. Instant phone polls called it for Gore, but the pundits and news anchors savaged him for the next 3 days and praised Bush for not drooling on the stage.
alfredo
(60,301 posts)He played them for suckers, and they decided they didn't like it.
Sunny05
(865 posts)Yes, I think Nate Silver is spot on -- unless the backlash over C-in-C/Matt Lauer and the press-excluded hotel-infomercial insult really sinks in on MSM. But I have no hopes that will happen.
By the way, why has MSM been doing this? Is it really for ratings? Does this unbalanced-standard really help ratings? Who (at MSM) really decides how the campaigns/candidates are covered?
I have at times been resorting to a type of thinking I usually avoid. Gosh, could they be trying to prevent HRC supporters from becoming complacent? (I know that's not it -- just trying to keep my sanity.). Or have djt-connected mobsters threatened MSM bigwigs and reporters? Are MSM producers/bigwigs and/or their sponsors entwined with djt-related business dealings? All of them (MSMs)?
My God, is it 1984 already?
bucolic_frolic
(55,143 posts)by encouraging Hillary's assassination
He's trying to make her back down
I think she should. Who wants to try to have a civil debate with
someone's who's begging the public for your assassination?
He's putting her in a difficult position. She's weak if she withdraws,
she's crazy if she debates him.
But I do think debating Trump is a bad idea. You can't win a debate with
a dodging narcissist. Some will think it was won on facts and policy and platform
Others will think bluster, confidence, impression carried the day
It's no win either way.
totodeinhere
(13,688 posts)will judge the results for myself. Let the talking heads say what they want to say. It won't matter to me.
wrong. Nate has became too anti clinton lately.
Bernardo de La Paz
(60,320 posts)ochem
(95 posts)But even suggesting what he did is not good.
pnwmom
(110,261 posts)There are some here and there who are trying to spin it his way, but they're pathetic.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(60,320 posts)Any commentator is allowed predictions on gut feel about things that can't be modeled statistically. That's all it was, and it was a reasonable prediction, based on how we know the media wants to make it a horse race if they can.