How much benefit is there from an excellent ground game?

[LAS14]

I'd figured 3 to 5 points, but somewhere recently I heard "1 or 2." This was in a pro-Hillary article. Sorry, can't remember where. Does anyone have statistics?

[20895DEM]

1. Unknown but between 1 and 5 %

I know the answer is vague but its truly unknown. It is a net benefit. They have a ground game and we have a ground game. In the case of Romney it helped Obama by 1 - 2%.

David Alexrod suggested that it would help Hillary by as much:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/interrogation/2016/08/how_badly_will_trump_s_lack_of_a_ground_game_cost_him.html

However, reports are that Trump has no ground game or has relied on the RNC. So the uptick on the ground game advantage could be higher: 3 - 5%

The ground game is the Democrats way of closing the gap between the RV and LV models in the polls you see. That is also a small indication of how much it could help at the top end.

[LAS14]

2. Thanks. That was helpful.

[democrattotheend]

3. Usually about 1%

When I was in college, political scientists estimated that a good ground game was good for about 1%. But that was before the Obama team really took the ground game to the next level.