HRC +9 in PA, +4 in NC (new state polls) -democracycorps

[factfinder_77]

http://www.democracycorps.com/Battleground-Surveys/consolidating-democrats-the-strategy-that-gives-a-governing-majority/

On the eve of the first major presidential debate, the latest likely voter survey of the battleground states on behalf of Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund shows Hillary Clinton settled into a strong lead in Pennsylvania, a modest one in North Carolina, and essentially tied in Ohio and Nevada.[1] Her overall margin has narrowed from where we had it across the battleground in June. Nothing comes easily in this election year, but the Clinton margin should grow from the structure of the race revealed in this analysis. In the two-person ballot, her margin grows 2-points to a 5-point lead across these states and she takes the lead in Nevada. And if the 3rd party candidates weaken, as is normal, Clinton disproportionately benefits

[democrattotheend]

1. Those are probably leaked internals

Democracy Corp. is a Democratic pollster. Still, I like the numbers, except Ohio.

It's weird that there is such a large gap in polling between Pennsylvania and Ohio. Usually Pennsylvania is a little bluer than Ohio, but not by this much.

[pnwmom]

5. Pennsylvania also adjoins New York and New Jersey. I think their politics are more similar than OH's

[triron]

2. Bias?

Looks good though. Given GOTV efforts N. Carolina is looking good for hrc. Perhaps Nevada will come along.

[LisaL]

3. Nevada right now is pretty much 50-50 so should be doable.

[vadermike]

4. Are

These good polling organization ? Looks good

[geek tragedy]

6. the 11 point spread between OH and PA seems very unlikely.

+2 PA and -2 OH would make more sense, as would +6 PA and +2 OH

[DeminPennswoods]

10. 2/3rds PA pop lives from Harrisburg and east

Only the western part of the state is somewhat similar to Ohio, the other 2/3rds of the population lives in Harrisburg and east. They're part of the Bos-to-Wash megalopolis.

[Dawson Leery]

7. Lichtman may have shot himself in the foot.

[triron]

8. knr

[triron]

9. This

is posted at Benchmark politics.

[yardwork]

11. NC looks good. I hope we get rid of our governor too.

[Demsrule86]

13. Me too...he is the worst. nt

[Demsrule86]

12. With those numbers.She may very well get Ohio...nt