Washington Post Poll

[Loki Liesmith]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-clinton-trump-in-virtual-dead-heat-on-eve-of-first-debate/2016/09/24/b99c95de-81cb-11e6-8327-f141a7beb626_story.html

H2H: C49 T47
4way C46 T44 rest: who cares

Bad points: obviously closer than last post poll.

Good points: Clinton is near 50 in the two way. Registered voters are split evenly. That's almost certainly NOT the case. Also respondents don't expect Clinton to win the debate by that large a margin 44% expect her to in, 34$% expect Trump to win. Expectations game may be a wash.

Polls from Thurs/Friday put this at around a 6 point race. Average with this, looks like a 4-5 point race at this point. Even the write up above acknowledges other polls disagree with this one. They know they have a slightly funky sample.

[vadermike]

1. ok

but we are kidding ourselves if we think that unless Hillary gets a clear win on Monday.. we might be fucked casue DOnald miight be leading all the polls post MOndy? thats my fear

[still_one]

2. You are saying we need a clear win on Monday right?

[vadermike]

4. yes

polls are too close.. maybe i am wrong but thats my feeling

[Loki Liesmith]

7. disagree

If that WaPo poll is right, most voters have made up their minds. No clear win changes nothing, and advantage us.

If that WaPo poll is wrong, then our lead is much larger than it posits. Advantage us again.


We need to not lose. A clear win is the best scenario. A stalemate is not the worst.

[vadermike]

9. sounds

logical to me what you are saying.. i know our GOTV org is second to none!

[Loki Liesmith]

11. There are obvious ways to lose

Gaffes, petulance, etc. All the charges thrown at Gore in 2000.

For some reason, his sighing made the media go crazy.

[still_one]

13. yeah, I tend to agree. It might not be the end all, but it should would hurt the momentum, and I

believe we have been slowly gaining momentum since the media frenzy from the pneumonia incident

[Loki Liesmith]

3. fear is pointless

That's out of our hands. Being afraid is a waste of time.

There are important considerations. Trump has two settings: high energy Trump and low energy Trump. Low energy trump is the one that doesn't say embarassing shit. He is also not very impressive and responds to questions with word salad. High energy Trump makes crazy mistakes and generally shoots himself in the foot.

We are not likely to see high energy Trump at the debate. His campaign will make sure of that. So it all comes around to beating low energy Trump. Point out the word salad. Contrast HRC detail to Trump hot air.

At worst that fights him to a draw. Trump is losing and he needs more than a draw.

Another consideration: this is the first opportunity since the convention where the public will have to see Clinton when she is not the target of a protracted and one sided smear campaign. The last time that happened her numbers got a huge bump.

This is a close race, but we are winning by every measure. The correct emotion is excitement for the opportunity to put this thing to bed.

[Democat]

22. You post non-stop concern topics

And your username is Vader. Can't believe you're still here!

[Bucky]

5. We've kind of reached that point where national polls don't mean anything.

You need to eyeball state polls. Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Michigan are the ones to watch. Maybe Colorado too.

[Loki Liesmith]

8. Michigan would be my only worry at this point

Been a while since we've had fresh data from there.

National polls are instructive in that they are highly correlated with movements in many of the states.

[vadermike]

10. michigan

If we see Hillary campaign ramp up spending there, how much should we worry? I think we are ahead but in low single digits plus 3-4 maybe?

[Loki Liesmith]

12. "how much should we worry"

No way to quantify that. They have money to spare. They may ramp up spending in the close states just to make sure.

If they go back into Colorado, I'd worry a little bit. Michigan I'd like to see more money in, because I'd like to nail that shit down.

[pnwmom]

20. What about the most recent Pennsylvania poll? That was too close for comfort. n/t

[Loki Liesmith]

23. Sample error

Last week same poll had her up 8.
Conclusion: she's up 5.

[vadermike]

6. you make a good point

Hillary can shine for sure.. just worried about the fucking media spin.. but you make a solid point! ! I feel a little better

[Iliyah]

14. I read it as well as Moncal and both are a bit off in my opinion

but alas both are 2 up which seems strange. Can we say horserace. Also, majority of Americans predict HRC winning the debate, strange this poll.

[Loki Liesmith]

15. Moncal?

[Iliyah]

16. The poll that came out showing PA race today

where Johnson had 14% but 7 or 8% went to t-rump. First of all 14% was very high in the first place and 7or 8% all went with t-rump? Nope.

[Loki Liesmith]

17. Plausible number for Clinton in PA is +5

Which makes a poll that is +2/+3 a reasonable thing to see given randomness in samples

[vadermike]

18. agreed

I saw that too and it was like WTF? Anyways i am not worried about PA ... as of now.. or CO... but we need to keep an eye out.. I can tell you i live here in NV ... the polls show close but I ahve a ton of GOP friends.. its anecdotal but .. 80 percent for Johnson... 1 guy for Trump and my other real close GOPer friend.. this dude is a very conservative GOPer... from the midwest... says he really doesnt agree with Hillary on alot of stuff and has called her names in teh past.. but said she is a Queen compared to Trump and will voting for her.. i think we will win NV.... polls always undercount Latino vote and we are working the state hard!

[Cicada]

19. Some other polls have Clinton better with likely voters than registered voters

Some likely voter screens may mark down no college whites, and those no college whites probably voted less in prior races which some screens weight

[book_worm]

24. Great! She's still ahead according to about every poll nationally.

[Loki Liesmith]

25. Yes.

If ahead nationally you are favored to win.