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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumElection Model Update
9/25 Update9/24 Update
9/21 Update
9/22 Update
9/1/2016 update
8/16/2016 update
Update with drift included 8/6/2016
Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016
Model projections:
#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################
Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 76.73 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 297.65
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 300.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 296
#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################
Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 62.97 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 284.22
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 285.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 280
Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 3.73
Analysis: New batch of Ipsos-Reuters polls bumped up the instantaneous forecast. Long range more or less the same (this is due to the variance of the states from which I'm sampling. Lean R states have been more consistent than lean D states. Still this long range number is better than what I ran (but did not post) yesterday.
Eventually both forecasts should converge.
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Election Model Update (Original Post)
Loki Liesmith
Sep 2016
OP
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)1. You do good work
Although your username doesn't fill be with confidence.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)3. Lies, damn lies, and statistics my friend
Just different ways of making the truth more interesting.
MyNameIsKhan
(2,205 posts)2. Great job Loki, I like math myself