highly volatile 538's nowcast now showing hillary at 70%

[unblock]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-senate-forecast#now

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

1. That's just in the "now cast". "Polls only" and "polls-plus" still show 60-62%. nt

[VMA131Marine]

3. Polls only and polls-plus respond slowly by design.

An extended period with good numbers and they will start to approach the Now-cast number.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

4. Just pointing it out because volatility was mentioned. I myself (I think) am starting

to understand the difference in the models.

[Adrahil]

2. Almost back up to pre-9/11 numbers there.

She needs to keep on keeping on. Obama, Obama, and Sanders can really help.

[triron]

5. I'm scratching my head

because Sam Wang dropped HRC from 84 to 82 (bayesian probability). I don't get it!!!

[VMA131Marine]

6. Sam Wang's forecast is based on state polls only

Whereas, 538 uses national polls as well to infer trends. The state polls lag the improved national poll numbers we have been seeing so you saw a dip in HRC probability. She should tick up again as the state polls start to catch up.

[MFM008]

7. It still makes my day

Yesterday morning she was 55.4.
Maggot has to be frantic.
He LIVES by the polls.
FLA. NC. NV back to blue.
Now work on OHIO.
I give a shot about Iowa.

[smorkingapple]

8. Ive been following this site. Much less noisy and likely to be final result

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/

I like the methodology which is slow to react but way more permanent when a shift does occur.