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2016 Postmortem

unblock

(52,240 posts) Thu Sep 29, 2016, 03:37 PM Sep 2016

0

highly volatile 538's nowcast now showing hillary at 70%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-senate-forecast#now

8 replies

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highly volatile 538's nowcast now showing hillary at 70% (Original Post) unblock Sep 2016 OP

That's just in the "now cast". "Polls only" and "polls-plus" still show 60-62%. nt Guy Whitey Corngood Sep 2016 #1

Polls only and polls-plus respond slowly by design. VMA131Marine Sep 2016 #3

Just pointing it out because volatility was mentioned. I myself (I think) am starting Guy Whitey Corngood Sep 2016 #4

Almost back up to pre-9/11 numbers there. Adrahil Sep 2016 #2

I'm scratching my head triron Sep 2016 #5

Sam Wang's forecast is based on state polls only VMA131Marine Sep 2016 #6

It still makes my day MFM008 Sep 2016 #7

Ive been following this site. Much less noisy and likely to be final result smorkingapple Sep 2016 #8

Guy Whitey Corngood

(26,501 posts)

1. That's just in the "now cast". "Polls only" and "polls-plus" still show 60-62%. nt

Reply to unblock (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 03:39 PM

Sep 2016

VMA131Marine

(4,139 posts)

3. Polls only and polls-plus respond slowly by design.

Reply to Guy Whitey Corngood (Reply #1)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 03:43 PM

Sep 2016

An extended period with good numbers and they will start to approach the Now-cast number.

Guy Whitey Corngood

(26,501 posts)

4. Just pointing it out because volatility was mentioned. I myself (I think) am starting

Reply to VMA131Marine (Reply #3)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 03:45 PM

Sep 2016

to understand the difference in the models.

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)

2. Almost back up to pre-9/11 numbers there.

Reply to unblock (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 03:40 PM

Sep 2016

She needs to keep on keeping on. Obama, Obama, and Sanders can really help.

triron

(22,003 posts)

5. I'm scratching my head

Reply to unblock (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 03:46 PM

Sep 2016

because Sam Wang dropped HRC from 84 to 82 (bayesian probability). I don't get it!!!

VMA131Marine

(4,139 posts)

6. Sam Wang's forecast is based on state polls only

Reply to triron (Reply #5)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 04:02 PM

Sep 2016

Whereas, 538 uses national polls as well to infer trends. The state polls lag the improved national poll numbers we have been seeing so you saw a dip in HRC probability. She should tick up again as the state polls start to catch up.

MFM008

(19,814 posts)

7. It still makes my day

Reply to unblock (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 04:03 PM

Sep 2016

Yesterday morning she was 55.4.
Maggot has to be frantic.
He LIVES by the polls.
FLA. NC. NV back to blue.
Now work on OHIO.
I give a shot about Iowa.

smorkingapple

(827 posts)

8. Ive been following this site. Much less noisy and likely to be final result

Reply to unblock (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 04:04 PM

Sep 2016

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/

I like the methodology which is slow to react but way more permanent when a shift does occur.

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