Nate Silver's 538 turned FL blue this morning and NV just went blue too!

[ffr]

Razer thin, but indicative of the dominating performance Hillary Clinton had on her opponent and likely voters, from Monday's debate.

Thank you Hillary Clinton for that huge shot in the arm Monday. We like enthusiasm and you're delivering!

She now stands at 63.3% chance at winning if we keep at it.

FiveThirtyEight.com (Polls only Forecast)

The deadline to REGISTER or RE-REGISTER voters is fast approaching!!! Get democrats registered NOW!

[Warren DeMontague]

1. Please, yes.

[BlueState]

2. Call me greedy

I want OH, IA, and NC as well.

But it's a good start!!! GOTV!

[ffr]

5. That's not greedy, that's thinking positive.

Just we need democrats to come out and vote in every state. Every vote is a message of where each of us wants to see our country go in. Call me greedy then too!

[radius777]

10. IA is gone, imo.

apparently Trump's nativism is resonating in IA, and his xenophobia/anti-trade message in OH. She'll have to fight hard for OH (which is a tossup) but its still possible. NC is leaning light blue, due to demographic changes and perhaps because Kaine is from the adjoining state.

I feel good about FL, and if she wins it, game over (even if he manages to win those other states).

[PearliePoo2]

3. How can things be so volatile? I don't get why the swings are sudden like this.

Is this the undecideds? Or people that are so aghast at dump's behavior in the debate it has changed their minds?
Help me figure this out please.

[Charles Bukowski]

4. Was there a Nevada poll released?

What caused the change?

[vdogg]

7. This is the 2nd time NV turned blue with no new poll

I don't know what the hell is going on with Silver's model. The last time it did this it quickly turned back to pink.

[ffr]

8. Not that I'm aware of, but that's not to say that they wouldn't be aware of, plus...

the other factors statisticians build into their forecasting models, from what I've read:

1) economic indicators - U.S. Economy Expanded at Revised 1.4% Rate in Second Quarter 2016 (favors incumbent party)
2) wisdom of the crowd - betting markets (HRC leads here too)
3) opinion polls - public perception and trends (HRC, I think, is riding a wave of enthusiasm after Monday's crushing performance.

[Adrahil]

9. Their model is fairly complex....

It's based on state projections which are MAINLY, driven by state polls, but the model also calculates a likely shift of each state's vote based on national polls, though that effect is comparitively weak as complained to state polls themselves. So... For states that are very close, like NV or NC, a strong movement in the National polls can flip the 538 models projection.

[TRUMP-BS-DETECTOR]

6. This seems logical

This shift back to our girl makes sense since real polls show she easily beat Trump
in the debate & improved her over all standing & Trump dropped according to
who watched the debate. And we know 80+ million watched on tv. We have no
clue how many more watched online. But it seems very clear as more days pass more
polls are showing a bump for our girl. This is far from over. But Hillary is back in the
drivers seat. Not that she was behind before the debate. But she's in a even better
position now.