FiveThirtyEight Has Some Really Bad News for Trump and the GOP

[ffr]

I won't link RedState, because they can go suck an egg for all I care, but I liked their story so here it is.

It's my point to thank those working and volunteering the Hillary For America GOTV effort. And your work is paying off.

Who will win the presidency? FiveThirtyEight has a pretty good idea.

According to statistical wizard, Hillary has a 75% chance of winning the Presidency, vs. Trump who only gets 25%.

FiveThirtyEight says that Clinton will likely win with 93 more electoral votes than Trump, and with less than 5% of the popular vote. Interestingly enough, Johnson will come in with 7.2% of the popular vote, up from 7.1% the last time the site took a look at the numbers.

While this puts Johnson in a no-win situation, finishing above 7% qualifies the Libertarian party for federal campaign funding in 2020, which will go far into bringing this third party more into the spotlight, should those who fled the GOP and Democrat party continue their political journey as independents.

It should be noted that Nate Silver, and FiveThirtyEight have a pretty good track record in terms of predicting how races will go. That's not to say that they border on precognitive. They get things wrong sometimes, and gladly admit when they do. Still, FiveThirtyEight isn't exactly known for missing their mark.

And in this case, if Silver is correct, then Trump's campaign is a proverbial dead man walking.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. That is wonderful news, and from a reputable source too.

[Ilsa]

2. I'd love to see H get much more than 270 EV.

If she got every state except Tx, Idaho, and Wyoming, that would be a huge message for the trumpers and trumpettes. Yeah, I'm expecting a big win for her.

[ffr]

4. She has momentum, depending on voter turnout could get upwards of 370.

And that depends on us driving and motivating people to register and EV or vote on election day.

Three links: Get involved. Volunteer to register voters, work the phones, enter data, or walk precincts in your area knocking on doors, talking to folks. Whatever you have a knack for. We already have waves of people, but we can always use more!

1) To volunteer, simply sign into HillaryClinton.com/volunteer-learn
2) Can't volunteer? Contribute $$$. It's used for everything from posters, to buttons, to food, transportation & overhead for the campaign workers and volunteers. https://www.hillaryclinton.com/donate/
3) Go to IwillVote.com to see if you are registered to vote or to register/re-register. It's easy.

You'll want to be part of the blue wave! Help make it happen. - GO HILLARY CLINTON!!!

[Missn-Hitch]

14. I wish as well. Unfortunately you will have to throw in Indiana as die hard Orange Menace.

[beachbumbob]

3. Democrats still need to get off their asses and vote...so take all this

With a grain of salt at this time....but I rather be in this position than trumps and the GOP....we could see all the dominoes fall our way with the Senate and the House....a bunch of state houses....but still...we all need to vote...all our friends and family....we must make this a clear message to the world that batshit crazies won't rule Americs

[ffr]

5. Yes. See above. It's up to us.

[Goblinmonger]

6. I hope they are right, but they've been wrong before.

They were pretty sure Trump wouldn't make it past New Hampshire.

[ffr]

7. Key difference. He wasn't running against Clinton in NH.

As we saw from the Pres debate. Hillary crushes him like a tin can.

[4lbs]

13. They were also wrong about Michigan. They predicted Hillary was 10 points ahead but Bernie won it.

However, historically they are in the mid 90s percentage-wise in accuracy.

They were correct in 49 out of 50 states in both the Democratic and the GOP side. That's high 90s right there. They were also very accurate (very close) to the predicted margins of victory in each of those state primaries/caucuses.

So, I'll hang with their ~95% accuracy.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

18. this is a garbage in garbage out problem. 538 is right assuming the polls are right

if the polls are fucked, so are they.

[4lbs]

24. Yes, however, that's why they weight the polls and calculate the margins that way.

Established polls that are historically accurate and recent in their polling have more weight than polls taken a while ago, are new and not established, or have been wrong multiple times.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

17. when they said the Trump thing they were not talking stats. it was conjecture

[sheshe2]

8. Love it!

[Joe941]

9. This is going to be a blowout of historical proportions!

[ffr]

10. It will be for those who can take credit for it - the voters.

The proof is on the wall. Newly registered voters vote.

There's still time for them to join the wave and have their stake in the America of tomorrow.

If you know of anybody who may be suspect on their voting status, have them to go IwillVote.com. It's free and comforting to know they'll be ready.

[ailsagirl]

11. I hate to keep harping on this but...

I'm horrified that he's gotten as far as he has-- do people really want that SOB as commander-in-chief??

Mind-boggling

[Bucky]

34. Sawyer from Lost once explained it

?t=125

Starts at 2:05, in case the auto-jump don't work. The truth only lasts 10 seconds.

[TonyPDX]

12. Great! Can we stop pretending he has even the most remote chance of being elected now?

[ffr]

16. Sure we can, on November 9th.

[Silent3]

20. I'm feeling hopeful, but no... 25% is much more than a remote chance.

That's a scary big chance considering the downside risk.

If you were flipping a coin twice, and all it had to do was come up tails both times and Trump would be President, would you really feel all relaxed and comfortable about that? Would you call two tails in a row a "remote" possibility?

[Helen Borg]

15. Focus, people...

These are ruthless scumbags. You never know what they'll pull. They don't play fair.

[mwooldri]

19. Remember the Brexit.

Pollsters said that the UK would vote to remain in the EU. So while this is a nice report from FiveThirtyEight, there's only one that counts. So vote! And not orange!

[VMA131Marine]

29. Brexit won because the under 30's didn’t vote

Of course, they are the ones who will be most impacted by the result.

[stone space]

31. Remember the Colombian Peace Referendum.

[athenasatanjesus]

21. a 25% chance is still way too close for comfort.

[RonniePudding]

22. Zero chance Johnson is anywhere near 7.2 on Election Day

4 percent, max.

[charliea]

23. Nate Silver is not the only reliable source with disturbing news for the GOP

Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium (election.princeton.edu) was just as accurate as fivethirtyeight.com in the last election and here's what they're saying right now (emphasis is mine):

As of October 5, 5:04PM EDT:
Snapshot (164 state polls): Clinton 320, Trump 218 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +3.1%
RSS
Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 86%, Bayesian 91%
Senate snapshot (48 polls): Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50, Meta-margin: D +0.8%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 68%

Of course I'm hoping for even more Senators than that but with Kaine as VP we take the Senate back with these numbers.

[elleng]

28. Hasn't Wang/Princeton been MORE accurate than 538?

[Poiuyt]

36. What's the difference between random drift and Bayesian?

[Hamlette]

25. Holy shit, we got Iowa back today!

Nate has had it light red all season, or at least the last few months when I've been obsessing. That's in the "now poll"

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

And trump is at 17.5% were the election held today

[Cakes488]

26. I wish Trashpot's campaign would be put out of it's misery

[NastyRiffraff]

27. I want a landslide

I want Trump to not only lose, but be humiliated. I want the country, and those abroad, to KNOW he has been definitely, thoroughly repudiated so he will never again be taken seriously by anyone. I want his deplorables to slink back into their basket. I want certain members of the media to be completely embarrassed by their enabling a monster.

As several people have said, it's up to us. GOTV, everybody! Find out who's organizing in your area (the more local the better) and join them. When we Democrats turn out the vote, we win.

[stone space]

30. Um...if that is correct, it's great news for Trump. A 25% probability is enormous in the context...

...of a potential Trump Presidency.



As an experiment, flip two coins. Did they both come up heads?

[Grammy23]

32. Our absentee ballots came in today's mail.

My husband and I sat at the kitchen table and marked our ballots. On our way out of town tomorrow, we will drop them off at the post office. So Hillary and Tim will have two votes headed to the Supervisor of Election's office. Happy to add ours to what I hope turns out to be a landslide! Here in NW FL I won't hold my breath but hope springs eternal that other places will see Donald crushed like the cockroach he is!!

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

33. In Now Cast Iowa is blue...Arizona will be next

Now that people are paying attention they are not liking Trump.

[Wednesdays]

37. I also heard that Ohio is turning blue

If so, Rump is losing in every "must win" state.

[radius777]

35. PEC/Wang and betting markets much more consistent than 538,

which was as high as 95% after convention and as low as 52% before the debate.

Nate Silver's models rely too much on polls, which bounce around for various reasons.

Wang relies more on other trends and data points, and his predictions are much more stable.

The betting markets have also been amazingly consistent, even going back before the primaries, has had Hilary at about a 2:1 to 3:1 favorite.

And those are very good and realistic odds, we live in a 50/50 country, so those kind of odds are very good.