November 9th: Election is over, Clinton Wins, Dems take small Senate Majority and 10-20 House Seats

[BrentWil]

I think it is pretty clear that Trump is done. I don't think any republican could win this year without an effort to expand their base to a more diverse population. That said, that clearly did not happen. The big uncertainty is how many house and Senate seats the dems take over. I think odds are they take the Senate but don't take the House.

The question is, what next? How does Clinton Govern? What does Trump do after the election? It is likely that the election will be "rigged" and he will fuel those flames.

It just seems we are in a very bad place, even with what will be a win on election night. Thoughts?

[LisaL]

1. Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

[BrentWil]

2. I am not

I am not. I voted and encourage everyone I know that the GOP needs to lose big. Honestly, there needs to be a clear signal to the base that this shit won't work and let the GOP elites start to rebuild. Just my two cents.

[democrattotheend]

4. Agreed

I get upset every time I see someone declare the election over. The absolute last thing we need is for people who were lukewarm on Hillary to get complacent and vote third party or stay home. I have several friends who were Bernie supporters who will vote for Hillary if they feel they have to, but feel free to vote third party if it doesn't seem close. The last thing we need is complacency from the Democratic base, especially those who were reluctant to support Hillary in the first place.

[BrentWil]

7. I am the opposite..

If Bernie won and he was facing a normal republican, I would likely not vote for the top of the ticket. With Trump, I would vote for Bernie because there would be no choice.

Clinton is my Candidate from the start. Experienced, smart, and pragmatic.

[democrattotheend]

14. Interesting

Luckily for you you don't have to make that choice. But what you said illustrates my point - people whose candidate lost the primary and who are lukewarm about the person who won are more likely to become complacent if the polls are not close. Which could lead to an unpleasant surprise.

[MFM008]

15. An egg still has a chicken IN it.

Most will hatch.

[saltpoint]

3. The percentages are now drawing away from

Trump. Clinton is favored more strongly now. There may be movement toward an even higher percentage for her, possibly even a landslide.

If that movement continues and a threshold is reached, we win the Senate and the House is very competitive. The electoral college totals would bury Trump-Pence alive.

Agree that many Trump supporters may cry foul, but the larger the win for Clinton-Kaine, the less their whining will register.

[BrentWil]

5. I agree.. the best result is that Clinton crushes it..

If the dems won the house, it would be a real "oh shit" moment for the crazies. That may allow Ryan and other to get a handle on this cluster.

[saltpoint]

8. Yes, and if we don't take the House, we will

likely gain enough seats to help disable the Pukes' obstructionism.

There is even talk that Issa may be defeated. A lower chamber without Issa would be a much improved chamber.

In the closing weeks, Trump may have some real difficulty connecting. The media are bolder and bolder in denying his surrogates their propaganda platforms. Trump himself is babbling like a fool and vandalizing teleprompters.

These do not suggest a winning campaign for the Republicans.

[BrentWil]

9. The big question is..

What is Trumps Ceiling? If the next few weeks are absolutely insane for him, I think he could go as low as 35%. If the third party collapses (which they normally do), that would be a landslide. If those two things happen, the Dems could win the house.

The only thing that worries me is Russian intel... I mean wikileaks...

[saltpoint]

12. Yep. That whole Russian thing is

truly yucky.

Maybe The Donald has some kind of a deal with the Russians to sell Trump Vodka after the election.

We'd be pleased to win the House. It will make Paul Ryan's gamble in taking the Speaker's position look pretty absurd. And it would put Nancy Pelosi back in charge of a lot of key legislation.

[D_Master81]

6. same old

if that does indeed happen, and i think your numbers are probably right on, then not much will change. Instead of Pres Obama, insert Pres Clinton (that seems weird to type again btw) and we're back to the same old stalemate between the Republican house and the Dem Senate. Trump i have no idea what will happen. I fully expect him to create a media network of some kind for his followers.

[BrentWil]

11. I just think the right wing seems to be at a breaking point...

The hate is unreal.. it is a worrying. I think the bottom line is we need a policy agenda that actually starts to address some issues like wealth inequality, etc.

[bagelsforbreakfast]

10. I really don't want to see any "grand coalition" BS with Nelson-like Democrats & Repubs...

Time for some hard PAYBACK on the stalling by McConnell and Ryan's troops. An E. Warren/Bernie selected Supreme. Senate talk about Basic income plans. Glass-Stegall. Wall Street trials. Think some of the Trump supporters would be down with that last one.

[BrentWil]

13. Not without the house...

And even with the house, all of that won't happen. Plus, going too far will be a landslide in 18 and the GOP will further entrench itself in redistricting.

That might be one thing to do. If you win the house, re-pass the voting rights act and put redistricting reforms in place.

[Coyotl]

16. A wave is building. Don't underestimate the effect. Thirty House toss-ups a month ago!

What a five-point shift could do = 455-83

From last week: The House Is Back in Play

Statistical mavens have determined that if Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, the Dems would have a good chance to take the House.