CNN poll predicted Romney and Obama would be tied in 2012

[molova]

Warning about the CNN poll. Their last three election poll in 2012 had Romney at 49% and Obama at 49% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Obama ended up winning by 4%.

[saltpoint]

1. One of the most interesting tales from the 2012

presidential race was that Romney, up to the last few hours of election night, was absolutely convinced he would win.

That may be why Karl Rove was spouting psychotic babble about missing Ohio votes all over cable, that is, even more virulently than he usually spouts psychotic babble.

It might be interesting to see what Romney's internals missed and see if the same variable applies to the 2012 CNN poll.

[Dem2]

2. I haven't seen the poll

and I won't give right-wing RCP any clicks - so what did this post inform me of?

[Mass]

3. CNN has Trump up by 4 in Ohio, so my guess is that the OP is ranting that CNN/ORC is a bad pollster

Reality is that the Ohio race is way closer than it should be. The good news is that, with VA and PA way in Clinton camp, she does not need Ohio as much (though it would be good if she could win it).

[Dem2]

5. Thanks

It is close - just checked Huffpo average is Clinton +2.2 including this likely outlier poll.

[Stand and Fight]

4. Exactly. Some details and context would be nice. I detest them too.

[Loki Liesmith]

6. just average your polls

and you'll be fine.

[molova]

9. RCP and HuffPo average polls, yet the averages are different

Are they both fine?

[Loki Liesmith]

10. yep. they are both fine.

They both capture a decent estimate of the center of the distribution.

And HuffPo imposes a smoothing on the data that RCP doesn't use, which probably makes it a bit better. But both still fine.

(and if you want to do even better, take the median of your polls)

[Doctor Jack]

7. Nate silver said add 4 points to cnn polls for clinton

Via his twitter

[MFM008]

8. Every time Maggot tanks

A CNN poll tries to save his ass. Same thing happened after her convention spike.