Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

2016 Postmortem

triron

(22,240 posts) Tue Oct 18, 2016, 02:18 PM Oct 2016

0

538 Now cast prediction for Nevada went down???

How is that?? Makes no sense!!!

Click here to purchase valentine hearts!

6 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538 Now cast prediction for Nevada went down??? (Original Post) triron Oct 2016 OP

Huh what? I just loaded the site. HRC has 69.9% chance of taking NV. apnu Oct 2016 #1

i have noticed the same thing. michiganman1019 Oct 2016 #2

I wouldn't worry too much about that Renew Deal Oct 2016 #3

What about NOW CAST do you not understand? brooklynite Oct 2016 #4

Look now vadermike Oct 2016 #5

It was 77.9% yesterday triron Oct 2016 #6

apnu

(8,790 posts)

1. Huh what? I just loaded the site. HRC has 69.9% chance of taking NV.

Reply to triron (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 02:21 PM

Oct 2016

And Catherine Cortez Masto has a 60% chance of taking Harry Reid's seat.

Click here to purchase valentine hearts!

michiganman1019

(45 posts)

2. i have noticed the same thing.

Reply to triron (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 02:27 PM

Oct 2016

Could it be that
- Polls lose their weight over time?
- Do upward and downward trends carry more weight than we think?
- Does Silver have access to private, internal polls?

Makes me wonder how i can access data on the site and then a few hours later see a significant change.

Click here to purchase valentine hearts!

Renew Deal

(84,765 posts)

3. I wouldn't worry too much about that

Reply to triron (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 02:30 PM

Oct 2016

The number that matters is 3 weeks away.

Click here to purchase valentine hearts!

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)

4. What about NOW CAST do you not understand?

Reply to triron (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 02:31 PM

Oct 2016

NOW CAST will change EVERY TIME a new poll comes out. It is most sensitive to new data.

Click here to purchase valentine hearts!

vadermike

(1,421 posts)

5. Look now

Reply to triron (Original post)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 02:58 PM

Oct 2016

Back up Monmouth poll .. GOTV !

Click here to purchase valentine hearts!

triron

(22,240 posts)

6. It was 77.9% yesterday

Reply to vadermike (Reply #5)

Tue Oct 18, 2016, 03:04 PM

Oct 2016

2 good polls today (+7 and +6) and it drops under 75%! I admit he doesn't have the new CBS poll for some reason.
Nate is fudging his numbers?

Click here to purchase valentine hearts!

Reply to this discussion

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»538 Now cast prediction f...