538 Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP

[ScienceIsGood]

Instead of a poll, let’s start today’s Election Update with some actual votes. According to the estimable Nevada journalist Jon Ralston, Democrats have a 20-percentage-point turnout edge so far based on early and absentee voting in Clark County (home to Las Vegas), Nevada. And they have a 10-point edge in Washoe County (home to Reno).

Nevada is one of a number of states where Democrats usually do better in early voting than in the vote overall, so this shouldn’t be taken to mean that Hillary Clinton and the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto, are going to win their races by double digits. But Nevada is an interesting state, insofar as both Clinton and Donald Trump can find things to like about its demographic makeup: In Clinton’s case, the growing number of Hispanic and Asian-American voters bodes well for her; in Trump’s case, there’s the fact that only about one-third of Nevada’s white voters have college degrees, according to FiveThirtyEight’s estimates. Furthermore, Nevada has shown tight polling all year, with Clinton having only pulled ahead since the debates — surprising given that President Obama won Nevada by 7 percentage points in 2012 and that Clinton is beating Obama’s numbers in other Western states.

Those early-voting numbers, though, don’t look good for Trump. Democrats are matching their 2012 pace in Clark County, according to Ralston. And they’re beating it in Washoe County, a place where the demographics ought to be relatively Trump-friendly. If Clinton is pulling in her marginal voters and Trump isn’t getting his, things could go from bad to worse for the GOP.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

[Wounded Bear]

1. K & R ......for visibility..nt

[Me.]

2. Fingers Crossed

[napi21]

3. OOOH, let it be so! The idea of a supressed Pub vote has had me a bit giddy for the last

week or so. It's the ONLY way I can see a possible takeover of the House, but that would be soooo wonderful! I want so much to tell the rities in the House that they don't need to postpone the election for their leaders because they think Ryan is not conservative enough, because none of the Pubs will be Speaker! They too will have been beaten by s WOMAN! Go Nancy!

[ScienceIsGood]

4. So glad in my life to see an African American and Woman be President!! n/y

[Lucinda]

5. Good. It's time congress got back to work.

[TonyPDX]

6. They shouldn't even bother showing up, much less stand in line to vote for Dirty Don.

[canetoad]

7. Trump Depresses Republicans

[duncang]

8. I'm wondering what kind of factor

will dipshit donnies attack on the repubs and the never trump repubs will be. dipshit supporters may not vote for down ballot repubs. And never trump repubs may not vote for dipshit. But can't take that chance. gotv

[ScienceIsGood]

9. I know my Dem friends are more worried about trump than over-confident. I think Trumps scares the...

hell out of Dems.

[IronLionZion]

10. Good, but we shouldn't get complacent, we have congressional races

and ballot referendums and many local races that could be flipped to our side in a blue wave

Let's make it happen. Make America Liberal Again!

[ScienceIsGood]

11. I think dems are so scared of Trump they will vote no matter what! n/t

[DRoseDARs]

12. White, 2-degree male Renoite here, just finished voting for Hillary.

Nevada a toss-up? lol as if

[ffr]

13. Clinton is pulling in her marginal voters and Trump isn’t getting his!

That sounds better as a statement than a question.

#NVGOTV in Nevada (NV) 1st day. Dems lead by > 12,500 EV, voting nearly 2 to 1 over Reps
Actually 13,411 lead for HRC in all votes cast thus far. *

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512537790

* I'll have today's approximate NV SoS numbers up later tonight, about 12 hours before John Ralston gets out of bed.