man, does this feel like 1996 or what?

[scheming daemons]

- young, telegenic Democratic president who replaced a Bush and is loathed by the right wing.

- GOP all set to nominate a retread because it is "his turn" after previous failed attempts. Base is all "meh" about the choice.

- President got hammered in midterms after focusing on healthcare during first two years. Lost congress.

- economy beginning to heat up at just the right time that the voting public will notice before the election.

- President's signature early legislation (1993 tax increase, 2009 stimulus) which was highly panned and criticized has been shown to be a success.

- events have conspired to show how scary the base of the other size is (Oklahoma city and the militias, Zimmerman and the war on women) and remind the electorate that the current occupant of the oval office is the sane choice.

Clinton beat Dole 49 to 41.

I expect a similar margin of victory this year.

[wyldwolf]

1. Very good analysis

[still_one]

2. I hope you are right but I don't think so. In my view it will be extremely close. The complicit

media spinning the R/W talking points, and anti-Obama rhetoric has misrepresented and distorted the whole situation

For one thing, if the Supreme Court rules the HCR unconstitutional, or even just part of it, the President will have a tough time winning the election

[truedelphi]

10. Add in the fact that the election machinery is still hackable and

I knowI sure wouldn't make bets one way or another.

Whomever the powers that be want to have get in will get in. That's all that matters in the end.

[mdmc]

3. I know that feel

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. Obama's first term has played out much like Clinton's first term

albeit without the personal baggage and not losing the Senate to the Republicans in the midterms. Oh, yes, and finally passing health care reform as well.

I just hope that Obama's second term plays out better than Clinton's did, though the Republicans are all empty in terms of finding anything impeachable on President Obama. I just hope we're not stuck with a partial (or fully) Republican Congress so that some more important stuff can actually get done and that people are sick and tired of their obstructionism and overreach.

After 12 whole years of running Congress into the ground and 8 driving the nation into a ditch, it still amazes me that people (those whom voted anyway) were willing to put them back in charge of at least one House of Congress so readily.



Having the Democrats running everything in Washington is nice but never seems to last long enough to try to really fix much and the Republicans (and their "base&quot seem to have an uncanny ability to keep that from happening very often in the first place.

[Cosmocat]

26. Man

simply mindboggling.

After 12 whole years of running Congress into the ground and 8 driving the nation into a ditch, it still amazes me that people (those whom voted anyway) were willing to put them back in charge of at least one House of Congress so readily.

[Moostache]

5. Facts do NOT matter to wingnuts...they are to be ignored in favor of dogma.

I just re-watched Alexandra Pelosi's outstanding documentary "Right America Feeling Wronged" (that originally aired on HBO) and I was stunned to see just how many of the pre-election talking points were complete nonsense, yet still stuck to these people like Gorilla Glue!

1) He's a "Muslim".
2) He's "weak" on "terrorists"
3) He's a "socialist" (best part of the whole film is the moron who cannot define "socialism" and spelled it "socilist" on his T-shirt)
4) He's an "elitist" (this is particularly rich in light of the Mittens gaffe-fest so far)
5) He's a danger to the nation and the world
6) He's "anti-American" (because he tried to De-politicize the flag lapel pin)

(And of course, the obligatory racists who cannot help themselves in pointing out that He's not white.)

NONE of the talking points that inflamed the "base" and brought out the crazies - like the disheveled woman who McCain finally had to grab the mic away from and correct - had ANYTHING to do with real issues or even reality for that matter.

This fall is going to be a repeat of the fall of '08 and I really am afraid of what the insane right-wingers are going to do once they realize they are not going to beat Obama in the election.

[Dawson Leery]

9. 2013 may be a year of instability.

[WI_DEM]

6. Actually it doesn't feel all that much like '96 to me

I felt very confident about Clinton being re-elected in 1996 and the economy was actually much stronger with much lower unemployment in 1996 than it is now (and the economy was recovering much stronger well before the start of the election year--not to mention gas prices!). While I feel that President Obama will be re-elected I don't have the confidence about it as I did when Clinton ran in '96.

[usrname]

19. The economy and tax-revenue

just started to ramp up in 1995-1996, but really went full-bore from 1997 to 2000. I remember that time when everything was happening, the dot-com, home prices soaring, etc. I also remember seeing the DJIA jumping by hundreds of points at a time during the late 1996 early 1997. Amazing time.

[Cosmocat]

27. This ... It is 96 LIGHT

The .com economy was ZIPPING.

AND, the Rs were on the other end of the war/terrorism trump card - they were doing the wag the dog BS, and trying to say that Clinton was politicizing terrorism.

Until we actually get though the election without a terrorist attack on american soil, we can't breathe easy, cause they WILL bury BO with it.

I like his chances, but I don't see an 8 point or more spread.

I think it looks about like it did the last go around as long as the economy keeps taking baby steps and nothing relative to security happens.

[benld74]

7. IF it is then the DEMS better have someone in mind for 2016 fur sure!!

[LynneSin]

15. I hate to say it but the smartest move would be to replace Biden

and I'm the biggest Biden fan but when 2016 rolls around he'll actually be OLDER than what John McCain was when he ran in 2008. Plus Biden has had a history of health issues with that Brain Anuerysm. As someone from Delaware and a long time Biden supporter I would love to have Joe Biden as president but I suspect the first Biden president we'll see is his son Beau Biden.

That means the Democratic ticket will be wide open in 2016 and you better believe right now the GOP is gearing up to have one of the more established candidates run - I'm suspecting it will be one of these teaparty governors that manages to survive 2 terms in office (ie Walker, Scott, Kasich, Christie, Corbett) or Jeb Bush. Sarah Palin will not be the candidate - by then we'll be bored with her and the GOP will find another female GOP politician to get all excited about. (With Nikki Haley having serious fallout with the Tea Party my guess is it might be NM governor Susana Martinez. AZ governor Jan Brewer has way too much baggage).

[usrname]

18. Time to groom the next presidential candidate

Install him/her in 2014 as Biden peacefully steps aside for "family reasons".

If the economy improves in Obama's second term, look for a progressive to take over Biden's VP position. Maybe a female VP. I doubt Hillary would be interested. Look for a young late-30s Stanford graduate. Maybe asian or southeast asian.

[LynneSin]

20. Exactly

Biden always is a good name on the ticket. Obama comes across as this 'calm cool, collected' of the ticket whereas Biden is more of the mouthpiece/firebrand. The guy is totally vetted to the infinity so we don't have to worry about any dirt coming out on him (Unless they bring up the tax fraud case here in Delaware of Chris Tigani, who was a big donater to the dems here in Delaware but that's like a tiny splinter in regards to Joe Biden's reputation). But after the election they could pull the switch and help build the career of the next democratic president.

[GoCubsGo]

8. One huge difference...

Clinton didn't have to contend with the Citizens United decision, and the hundreds of millions of corporate dollars spent on lies and propaganda against him. Obama will.

[ProfessionalLeftist]

11. They didn't have "voter ID" laws in 1996

created to disenfranchise millions of eligible voters. And the voting machines are still not functional.

[LynneSin]

12. I"ve been saying for ages that the eventual GOP nominee is the next 'Bob Dole'

a throwaway that the GOP powers-to-be will make as the sacrificial lamb in the presidental election why they focus their money & effort on other races.

If the GOP really wanted to win in 1996 better candidates would have run. Even Palin was smart enough to sit this one out.

[On the Road]

13. 1996 is an Apt Comparison With the Exception That There is No Ross Perot in the Race

Not yet at least. The gap between Clinton and Dole was pretty much equal to Perot's share of the vote.

[usrname]

17. Perot affected the 1992 election

not 1996. There were no third-party in 1996, just a straight up Clinton-Dole.

[Dawson Leery]

21. The polls which showed the 49-41 margin of victory for Clinton.

said it would have been 55-44 in a two way Clinton-Dole race.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

23. I thought that Perot (or somebody nominated by his "party"- United We Stand America) DID run in 1996

I'll have to go back and refresh my memory.

[On the Road]

24. Although It's Not as Well Remembered

Ross Perot did run in 1996 and got 8.4% of the vote. Clinton only won by 8.5%.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1996

[bluestateboomer]

14. It may look like 1996 on the surface,

but I think the GOP thinks they can game the system. Otherwise why would they be so unconcerned with the reaction to the stupid things that have been said in this campaign. I think that they feel no matter who they have alienated, when it comes to the general election their Super-PACs will just money bomb the media. That plus the tried and true voting machine problems and voter registration schemes are how they plan to win. I hope they are wrong.

[usrname]

16. My concern is 2016

After a very successful administration, Obama will leave office with a budget surplus, employment will be down to 6% or lower, peace with Iran, N Korea and other areas.

Then the GOP will pull another stunt and bring in some frat boy (sorority girl, this time?) with no brains to be "managed" by the old guards (hopefully, Cheney, Rummy et al., would have kicked it by then). Their PR will be run by Rove again and Rush would be on some internet radio, along with Hannity and Savage and Beckkk.

Le plus ça change, le plus le meme chose.

[Johnny2X2X]

22. The difference

Obama will be a loved and powerful President without the baggage Clinton had so he'll be able to campaign vociferously for his Democratic replacement. By 2016, Obama will be viewed as the most successful President in modern history.

[Cosmocat]

28. No, he won't

he might be functionally, but he won't be "viewed" as such, because the right wing frames will continue to be channeled by the "liberal press."

It has now become accepted that Reagen, a mediocre president at best, is viewed as the greatest president in modern times. Same forces that create THAT myth will never allow for ANY democrat to be considered the most successful president in our times.

[zipplewrath]

25. One oversight

- President's signature early legislation (1993 tax increase, 2009 stimulus) which was highly panned and criticized has been shown to be a success.

There isn't nearly as much consensus that the stimulus was a "success" as there was acceptance of the '93 tax increase. And the Supreme court wasn't considering the signature piece of legislation in March of the election year.

I suspect the stimulus may be more accepted by the summer, if the economy continues to improve. It will be interesting to see the impact of various potential Supreme Court decisions (or non-decisions).

And one thing in Obama's favor, there is no "Whitewater" or special prosecuters running around.

[DFW]

29. In 2004, people here in NATO-land asked me for my prediction of the presidential election

I thought about that, and I said, "Kerry wins the election, and Bush stays in office."

They all asked how that could possibly happen? After Ohio, they all understood how it could happen.
In 2008, I said the Obama tide will drown McCain no matter what. That happened, too. This time, I
still say Obama pulls it off, but with Citizens United dirty money flowing unlimited, it will not be the
slam dunk it should be considering the 2nd rate, 3rd rate and 4th rate candidates offered by the
Republican Party to oppose Obama.

[polichick]

30. Interesting - but I'd say the win depends on how many votes are stolen...

The GOP is going all out to make sure voters are stripped of their rights this year.