2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNot worried...just a bit annoyed at the 538 2016 presidential forecast
Showing just very slight downticking for Hillary and consequential very slight upticking for Trump --
but what is changing to have these slight variations? What polls would be causing these minor shifts and what's the trend expectation?
Txbluedog
(1,128 posts)beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Especially minute day to day changes...
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)just annoyed to see it and to see MSM championing any poll out there that shows Trump ahead (in any swing state).
The numbers had been quite steady (Hillary hit a high of 88%) until the last day or so when Trump crept over the 15% mark. I know...I know...still so very slim...I just don't want his numbers to go up any higher and can't figure out for the life of me where these odd ball stats are coming from.
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)I so want to see him down in the single digit "impossible to win" range.
trof
(54,256 posts)This is people who have bet real cash on the outcome.
Some Irish books have already begun to pay off Hillary bettors.
They say it's over before the election.
These are people who make their living off of betting.
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)Is don the con up to 16% chance of winning? If you REALLY want to freak out, Wang has lowered her chance of winning from 99% to 98%.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)ScienceIsGood
(314 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)It's a little creepy, but whatever.
ScienceIsGood
(314 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I'm not the one sending you unsolicited private messages and following you around the board.
Enjoy, though. It's weird, but I've seen this kind of behavior before.
ScienceIsGood
(314 posts)way to introduce them to the DU.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)C-c-c-creepy!
ScienceIsGood
(314 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Regardless of the creepy, stalky behavior of some posters.
ScienceIsGood
(314 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Talking about other PMs you received about me!
A true fan!
NoGoodNamesLeft
(2,056 posts)Because Trump is so damn disgusting there are many new people who don't usually follow so closely or care as much. I actually used to post here back when Howard Dean was running. I think I got banned both here and on a conservative site. Both places accused me of being with the other party and I'm an Independent moderate, lol. I came back here this election because Trump infuriates me and my family is sick of hearing me rant about his orange ass...so I rant here.
I wish people would stop assuming anyone with a low post is a troll because that's usually not the case.
ScienceIsGood
(314 posts)PJMcK
(22,026 posts)It's great that you're here and your screen name is terrific as it represents my own point of view.
Here's a suggestion, however. You can use the Ignore feature to block alciblades_mystery's posts so you won't see them. I sure you know that one cannot win an online argument and if someone bugs you, it ruins your experiences on this excellent site.
In any event, keep posting! It's informative to hear more voices.
ScienceIsGood
(314 posts)book_worm
(15,951 posts)getagrip_already
(14,697 posts)He has a lot of garbage polls in the mix to provide ballast. It slows down the snap/roll the better polls cause.
Not to worry, just vote, and drag all your friends with you.
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)n/t
Polly Hennessey
(6,793 posts)and for whom did you vote?
tblue37
(65,290 posts)VMA131Marine
(4,137 posts)National polls are used to verify trends. It seems to me that the bulk of the state polls show a closer race than indicated by the national polls and this is causing the current tightening. However, outside of the battleground states, there isn't a lot of good polling data (I don't consider the Survey Monkey and Google Consumer Survey polls to be all that reliable). The battleground states have much closer polling margins than the solid red and blue states and so, since these are getting polled much more often, the forecast is trending towards Trump slightly because there is little to move it the other way.
Joe941
(2,848 posts)jamese777
(546 posts)The Remington Research Polls in several states looked good for Trump. Remington Research polls for Republicans. Also Monmouth's New Hampshire poll showed Hillary up by 4 when she had been up by more and the Survey Monkey polls in many states showed more moderate leads than earlier.
realclearpolitics' averaging of national polls is also down a point and a new Florida Bloomberg poll has Trump leading by 2.
whatthehey
(3,660 posts)If you look at Obama/Romney polls for this time in 2012, you had 95% or so going for one or the other.
It's averaging more like 85 now. The higher the number of undecideds, or to a bit lesser extent third party supporters who have a high historical tendency to transfer to the two major parties at the end, the more uncertain the victory for the poll leader because they all/most theoretically could break Trump. So look at recent non D/R %age totals.
The other big 538 impact is he models like states to affect like states, so a swing to Trump in, say, SC, also gives him a bit bigger statistical shot in GA.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)... I'm thankful that my state isn't crucial in this election! Ohio has very few Latinos, among other things.
As long as Clinton wins Pennsylvania, which I think is more representative of the country as a whole now, she'll win.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Looking good there
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Nothing significant has happened to alter the dynamic of the race. That's a victory.
Besides, in a race that was very close prior to debate one you can't expect either candidate to continue to gain day after day after day. Not logical. It's like a long standing .500 football team trying to win 6 or 8 in a row.
I'm very happy where we are. Late margins in general elections are hellish to reverse, as opposed to primaries which can sway wildly in the closing days since everybody is seeing and prioritizing the same thing.
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)What general predictions do you have in the closing days of the election? Furthermore, does early voting impact the model(s)?
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)but I do expect a slight tightening over the next two weeks. But don't obsess over a couple points. Hillary has his. We just need to keep the push on.
semby2
(246 posts)It just jumped to 86.1 for Hillary.
And if you're reading this, you're probably obsessing about it a bit too much.
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)and yes...you right...I am probably obsessing about it too much
We should both try to relax
In truth, the numbers are amazingly good.
manicraven
(901 posts)NoGoodNamesLeft
(2,056 posts)Hillary needs to give a press conference on the issue and discuss her plans in specifics.
semby2
(246 posts)No. Not only are many of the polls too early for that, the numbers at the moment are 86.1 for Hillary, which is where it was a few days ago. The numbers went up since the OP created this thread.
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)As I said, I'm not particularly concerned....more annoyed at it all. But as I read about some new polls that are coming in today, I'm feeling A-okay...but will remain uneasy until the eve of November 8th.
NoGoodNamesLeft
(2,056 posts)The media reports on the rising costs of Obamacare could cost the election if she doesn't address it. Ignoring the issue and pretending it doesn't matter would be stupid and could put Trump in the oval office. Maybe not like a huge press conference...but with the reporters travelling with her.
The campaign NEEDS to address the issue and run the old commercials about Trump ripping off contractors. THAT will pull away some of the rust belt white men who ARE contractors.
emulatorloo
(44,110 posts)Additionally she addressed fixes to Obamacare in the last debate, which received the third highest rating in the history of presidential debates.
For all you and I know she's talking about it on the trail, but too 'boring' for the media to report.
NoGoodNamesLeft
(2,056 posts)And it's a VERY important issue and some of them have decided to vote for Trump because he is talking about it and promising to do something.
This is an issue Clinton can NOT afford to ignore if she wants to win.
No one wins without swing voting moderates/Independents like myself. I am trying to tell you that to people like me...people Clinton NEEDS to win...this is a MAJOR issue and it would be FOOLISH to ignore it.
I hope she realizes this before it's too late and puts out some kind of statement or something because I do NOT want Trump to win.
emulatorloo
(44,110 posts)As daily weight fluctuations are pretty much meaningless. I weigh once a week that gives a more accurate picture.
Probably a good way to treat daily forecasts.
NightWatcher
(39,343 posts)I'll take fluctuations around 84-87% with a big fat smile on my face.
0rganism
(23,937 posts)that's Nate's job, and if he sees something really interesting he'll point it out in one of his expository articles
538 runs a windowed poll analysis, with weighting dependent on polls-only and now-cast selections.
in addition to any new polls that come in, there are old polls becoming stale and losing their impact on the modeled state of the campaign.
jamese777
(546 posts)If Hillary wins these states, she's president:
WA, OR, CA, HI, NM, CO, IL, MN, WI, MI, PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, VA, & DC
It is possible she might lose one congressional district in Maine, but note that she wouldn't even need Florida, North Carolina, Nevada or Ohio!
applegrove
(118,600 posts)her. I think it is a good thing if the race tightens.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Way more as we out number conservatives and when we all vote, we win
applegrove
(118,600 posts)bmstee01
(453 posts)But I could use one more big trump scandal
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)Sweep out all the dirt!