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[geek tragedy]

This message was self-deleted by its author (geek tragedy) on Sun Oct 30, 2016, 10:58 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[Rocknrule]

1. Amen

It doesn't matter if Hillary is up double digits in Oklahoma, for the next week, we are still looking down the barrel of a Trump presidency

[geek tragedy]

3. Yes. People are assuming he can't win. He can win.

If Clinton can implode in Florida despite investing so heavily, she can implode in other states.

[musicblind]

4. I don't think anyone is assuming anything after the new "email review" BS. n/t

[vdogg]

8. Yeah, I really don't get how anyone thinks we don't believe Trump can win.

Especially after the last 24 hours. Everyone is fully aware of the stakes.

[Loki Liesmith]

2. It was raining

[geek tragedy]

5. Turnout was down amongst Dems by a lot more than amongst Reps

Which campaign is the one without the ground game? Right now Trump's non-existent one is beating Clinton's.

Not sure what her Florida team is doing besides JLo concerts.

[mcar]

16. Her Florida team is working in nearly every county

On GOTV efforts. Including my ruby red county, where I am a Hillary volunteer.

I don't appreciate the snark. People are working hard here.

[geek tragedy]

20. I don't question the efforts of volunteers.

But numbers are numbers.

[Loki Liesmith]

25. Weather disproportionately affects our base unfortunately

[LisaL]

39. How is it today?

[Loki Liesmith]

42. Raining again

[ohheckyeah]

130. Republicans don't have sense enough to go in out of the rain.

[vdogg]

6. Shhh...Don't let facts get in the way of concern.

[geek tragedy]

10. Actual numbers

daniel a. smith
daniel a. smith – ‏@electionsmith

@GASDOX Good Q.
In FL, 56k fewer Ds voted EIP yesterday (Sat) than did on 1st Sat of early voting in 2012; 19k fewer Rs voted than '12

https://mobile.twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792754381984636928

[womanofthehills]

61. From CNN 2 days ago - a different story

Florida
The Republican advantage in Florida may be slipping away as Democrats turn out to vote early.
Now that in-person early voting is underway, the GOP advantage has been slashed by about two-thirds. They were up by about 18,000 votes earlier this week, but now they lead by only about 6,000 -- or 0.3 percentage points. While they are still leading, they are far behind the advantage of 6.8 points -- almost 73,000 votes -- that they had at this point in 2008.
In more possible good news for Clinton, there are signs that Hispanic turnout has swelled in the Sunshine State. So far this year, about 13% of early voters are Hispanic, up from about 8% at this point in 2008.
We don't have comparable data from Florida for 2012, which was a closer race than in 2008.
In each of the two previous presidential races, more than half of Florida's electorate voted early. The early vote share was 56% in 2012, and that number is expected to continue climbing in 2016.

[geek tragedy]

65. this was supposed to be the weekend when Democrats made their big move

on early voting.

Obama lost the election day voting in 2012. His entire margin of victory came from early voting.

[Farmgirl1961]

7. ugh...

If there's anything out there on Trump, now's about the time to start dropping it....With early voting underway, sooner the better I say.

[vadermike]

9. So

Now trump is going to win Florida ? Holy shit. This is gettin scary. I though the early vote in fl was good. Wasn't romney ahead there by 5 in early voting and Obama still won. I hope hrc campaign team knows what they are doing

[geek tragedy]

11. NYT poll based on actual voter file shows Trump +4

We should be scared.

Obama won the early voting, Romney won the day of voting.

[LisaL]

15. And Obama only barely won in 2012.

[geek tragedy]

19. Obama won by 77k or so

Clinton lost ground relative to Obama by 30k+ yesterday alone.

Trump victory there seems likely, though certainly not a foregone conclusion. Clinton seems to be imploding there while she's surging in NC.

This is why having multiple paths is so important. Clinton is still very likely to eek out a win. If it were all on OH and FL then Trump would be the favorite.

[triron]

21. PPP had her up 4

Oct 27th

[Dem2]

92. Lol

You're a riot!

[obamanut2012]

114. just stop it

[CreekDog]

143. he's almost as bad as the OP

[Farmgirl1961]

12. I know that Hillary doesn't need Florida to win

but there are a handful of swing states that seem to be slipping away. I'm not liking this trend one bit.

If there's a shoe to drop for Trump, please let it drop ASAP. I don't want to see any more swing states swinging away from Hillary. There's just too much at stake here.

[Democat]

17. The above account and the one below it are concern trolls, probably same user

Check the posting history for these two accounts:
Farmgirl1961
vadermike

They constantly post almost exactly the same thing, and it's always hope that Trump will win and concern that Clinton will lose.

I have alerted on them countless times and the DU mods just won't wake up.

[LisaL]

18. I noticed the same thing.

Always concerned, but I don't buy it.

[Democat]

22. I hate to mention it in the thread, but the mods don't seem to care

These two specific users always post the same concern about Clinton losing.

I don't want them to succeed at discouraging Democrats, which is obviously their goal.

[LisaL]

23. You aren't the only one who noticed.

I noticed for a while now. Always acting so concerned about any possible bad news. Some people might be naturally concerned but some people clearly are trolls pretending to be concerned.

[obamanut2012]

116. One posted yesterday bragging they were GOTV for Trump

I was on the jury for that one. Post removed.

[DarthDem]

46. Yup

I've been on to them "both" for a while. One did a better job of hiding it. But good catch on your part.

[Farmgirl1961]

77. Democat - that's an outright lie. I DO NOT HOPE TRUMP WILL WIN

I loathe that man and all he represents. If you want to censure folks for airing fright or concern, that's a real shame. This is perhaps the most critical election of our lifetime and folks have a right to feel a little nervous. We all know that it's not a done deal. We all know that the M$M has it in for Hillary. We all know that the Republicans are pulling out all the stops to do what they can.

How dare you question my loyalty! I'm a true blue Democrat, have ALWAYS voted democrat (and I ain't no youngster) and was a Bernie supporter. I'm now 110% on board for Hillary and admire everything she has done in her 30 years of public service. In fact, I'm a public servant and have been spat at, yelled at and even had my life threatened on more than one occasion for trying to do the right thing.

How dare you question who I am or my integrity! I will stand up for what I believe in. On the other hand, there's a whole lot of sh*t being thrown at Hillary and we have every right to talk about it.

If in fact DU is nothing more than only allowing people to discuss only the positive news cycles, than we'll find ourselves in a bubble. If DU wants to censure folks who are nervous, scared and yes concerned -- then make sure that people understand that's what DU is all about when they sign on to become a member.

Such a shame. I enjoy reading people's posts and having a dialogue. Personally, I think it's important to hear from people who disagree with me, so we can have open and honest discussions. We've lost our civility and ability to listen. That's just so unfortunate that you've someone profiled me, or others. Very sad indeed.

[woolldog]

91. Good for you standing up for yourself.

It used to be that you couldn't personally attack posters the way you were attacked.

[Beartracks]

97. Hear, hear.

Even the President has asked us to not get complacent and to run scared all the way thru Election Day, precisely because the alternative is, in fact, scary.

======================

[Farmgirl1961]

105. Exactly! And it's a tough balance to strike, especially if one tends to be a bit of a "worrier"

None of us can afford to be complacent. There is a barrage of negative stories and spin and hate and it is difficult to maintain a level head. This FBI story has caught on fire and while I agree that it's "much ado about nothing", the M$M is running rampant with it and Trump is twisting it into one big fat colossal lie.

I do believe that the majority of people can see right through this story and see that the FBI and Comey screwed up royally.

Thank you - much appreciated.

[wisteria]

141. There is a fine line between constructive concern and discouraging comments.

I take you at your word. But, let's not wring our hands about fret.

[obamanut2012]

115. bingo

[wisteria]

140. You really care??

Seems like you fishing for info. Clinton has this.

[vadermike]

13. Well

If thus is a real trend across the swings. We may have lost the election. Sad and disgusting. I am terrified --- I want to be wrong. But half of our country has gone insane

[geek tragedy]

14. Numbers in VA and NC and NV and NH and CO much better.

She holds those she wins.

[obamanut2012]

118. You posted yesterday you were GOTV for the GOP in your state

So why would this terrify you?

[writes3000]

24. More Dems than Republicans voted. I'm happy. I'll save the waaambulance for later.

[Tarheel_Dem]

85. Thank you.

[Rex]

98. That is what is most important to remember.

[beachbumbob]

26. Seems to be at odds with what NBC reported on early voting lead by Hillary....

[writes3000]

28. Dems are way ahead. This post is complaining about ONE day.

[Proud liberal 80]

35. Agree and

The first Saturday last year was also the first day of early voting. This year it started Monday so those Dems could have voted throughout the wee

[geek tragedy]

40. Benchmark is vs 2012

There are definite differences in when Dems and Reps vote in FL. We need a substantial lead going into Election Day.

[Proud liberal 80]

29. According to this poll of actual voters

Clinton is +17 in Florida.

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246

Edit: but it is before Saturday

[ham_actor]

30. Source?

I'd like to know the source of the numbers cited in the original post beyond what one person posted on Twitter.

[geek tragedy]

37. The guy is a Florida voting guru. His #s based on public info nt

[NWCorona]

100. This site usually gets updated at least twice a day.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[andym]

31. Not liking the nyt upshot poll one bit

Trump supporters seem to gaining in enthusiasm and more likely to vote, which is being excerbated by the FBI story. Still 538 has Hillary with multiple ways to win.

[CreekDog]

32. Your crack about Hillary's team doing JLo concerts is bullshit

where are you and what are you doing???

you're complaining about what her volunteers are doing and while you're posting here --YOU'RE DOING NOTHING, while complaining about people DOING SOMETHING.

look in the mirror.

[Proud liberal 80]

33. Another thing to factor

The first Saturday last year was also the first day of early voting. This year it started Monday so those Dems could have voted throughout the week.

[Awsi Dooger]

34. Democratic voter outreach in Florida is a joke

When I lived in Henderson, Nevada I had frequent door to door contact every cycle. Very friendly and helpful. Once I relocated to Miami I registered Democratic but it was like I didn't exist. Not one person has contacted me at the front door. I didn't receive any mailers until I called a Democratic office and mentioned it. Suddenly I started receiving things but it was absurd that I had to call it to their attention. My father had been dead several years yet when I had mail forwarded from that address he was still receiving things while I was not.

This cycle I have received exactly one call from a Democratic source. It was from Dwight Bullard's campaign, a candidate running for local state senate. The woman on the phone also matter of factly said she recommended Hillary.

And that's it. I don't know what happened to Obama's touted voter list or ground game, presumably passed on to Hillary, but in Florida it's incompetent compared to Clark County, Nevada. Those are the only two areas I can directly compare based on recent experience. I'm hardly surprised that Clark is faring much better than Florida during early voting.

[geek tragedy]

36. Harry Reid built a formidable machine in NV. nt

[LisaL]

38. Thank you Harry Reid!

Despite polls suggesting Nevada is close, it's doing very well in getting out the vote!

[geek tragedy]

44. The new tipping point states are NC and NV

Florida will always lean Republican, regardless of demographic changes. Just a weird state.

[Awsi Dooger]

54. Yes, and I watched it happen

I worked GOTV in Las Vegas in 2004. The entire process was not as energetic or sophisticated as ideal. Internal grumblings. Kerry lost by a few percent. Everyone was frustrated.

The major advance occurred between 2004 and 2008. Suddenly I was being contacted again and again, at the door and by mail and phone call.

Keep in mind that Reid had a midterm senate race coming up in 2010. Don't ignore the significance of that. He knew damn well it would be the toughest hurdle of his career, with a Democrat in the White House and Republicans frenzied to embarrass Reid via a career ending defeat. The rural cow counties always turn out dependably in midterms while Clark County underperforms. Unless Reid could change the math, he loses.

I should mention that I was already registered in Florida in 2014, and living with my sister who is a Republican. She was bombarded with mailers and calls while I literally didn't receive anything. Consequently I knew what to expect in that midterm, that Republicans would fare better than polling suggested, and lowlife Rick Scott would be reelected.

Fortunately this cycle I am not living with my sister. But she still receives far more GOP mailings and calls at this old address of hers than I get from Democratic sources. Sometimes I get a kick out of screwing around with the Republican phone callers.

[geek tragedy]

57. state parties matter. Democrats have a big advantage in state parties in Nevada,

but Republicans have a better one in Florida--in the latter it's enough of an advantage to fight Clinton's GOTV effort to a standstill, despite the lack of paid staffers from Trump.

[mcar]

41. Why were you waiting for someone to contact you?

You could have been contacting people yourself - as a volunteer.

[Awsi Dooger]

58. I don't speak Spanish

That is a requirement around here. My father volunteered one cycle late in his life and had similar issues. The next cycle they told him they were prioritizing bilingual volunteers. It does make sense.

[mcar]

80. It does make sense in Miami

Come up here to Central FL!

[Awsi Dooger]

94. I'll be there on November 9

My sister lives in Ocoee.

Long planned trip. I've known for months that my mood on that trip will be either overjoyed or devastated, based on the election result.

My sister has a 10 year old daughter who has been pulling for Hillary since the first primary.

BTW, I did work GOTV in Las Vegas in 2004. Even then and there it wasn't ideal to lack bilingual volunteers. We had some problems on election day. Miscommunication and delays. Hispanics are a growing segment of Clark County voters.

[MyNameIsKhan]

43. This does not tell what is happening on ground

74.4 percent of 2012 have been casted, Dems are equal to Repub as of now lead 17 points overall. As voting population increased about 800k, Dems have registration advantage. If we are not close to 100 percent by Wednesday then we should worry, otherwise HRC +2 win which is about 180k votes.

[sunonmars]

45. Exactly Trump has a small lead in FL in early ballots, thats usual.

In 2012, GOP were nearly 4% ahead in early ballots and still lost the state......the GOP lead is 0.7%

and a lot of those probably aint voting for him....


So why the panic amongst some of you lot......

[DarthDem]

47. Because It's Fun to Panic, I Guess

. . . or something.

The OP is probably not a fake concern troll, but has an interesting posting history and will not defend points well or at all when challenged. Seems to like sitting here fretting about just about everything, on a daily basis, and never celebrates any good news for Clinton (which is everywhere).

[geek tragedy]

56. Ballots cast is exactly the best measure of what is happening on the ground.

In early states that's how you tell who has the better ground game.

In North Carolina and Nevada, Democrats have a much better ground game.

That's not the case in Ohio and Florida. Republican state parties in those states are very good at GOTV. Not as good as Obama's team, but every bit as good as Clinton's team.

[MyNameIsKhan]

93. Out of voting population there is trend

That certain amount of people vote early and that is found to be repeatable ... The fact HRC is leading by 17 points in early vote means she has atleast some ground game. This election was always going to be close D and R will come home, the shift we will see this time is due to population increase... Eventually this race is HRC to loose, I believe she will win by about 150-200k votes.

[duffyduff]

48. Time to trash another thread

Sick of this crap trying to demoralize Democrats thinking this piece of shit Trump has any chance at all.

[RAFisher]

49. Right now the Democrats lead early votes by 42k votes

Even on @electionsmith own blog it doesn't look bleak at all. Democrats are also doing better with Vote By Mail.

?w=460

Updated results by Florida SOS:
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[sunonmars]

50. Just seen...if Trump is dependent on turning out voters on GE Day, he needs ground game...

He doesnt have it and

In FL, 36% of likely voters say they have already voted, and they are breaking for Clinton, 54-37

Among those who haven't, Trump up 51-42

[woolldog]

95. If those numbers are correct

Edit: After redoing the math its 46-46 even.

[triron]

139. What is the sample size?

I did a back of the envelope calculation. For this early vote data to be close to actual numbers unaffiliated would have to be breaking pretty significantly for Clinton in early voting at least; and also more republicans are not voting for Trump than democrats not voting for Clinton. Which is plausible.

[geek tragedy]

52. compare that to the early vote in 2012--worse than Obama's early vote performance by several hundred

thousand votes.

Romney won election day itself by a big margin.

Clinton needs to be ahead by about 300K votes going into election day. That looks unlikely at this point.

It's looking a lot like a Trump +2% win.

[sunonmars]

51. The unknown is GOTV, Dems are good at it, Trump's is non-existent- Ground game matters.

[geek tragedy]

53. That's not correct. Early voting numbers are the best measure of a good GOTV

operation.

The early voting numbers all indicate Trump/Republican GOTV effort is every bit as good as Clinton/Democratic one.

In contrast, it's a complete wipeout in terms of GOTV in North Carolina and Nevada.

Best guess is that the state Republican Party is bailing Trump out, and is a lot better than we thought it was.

[Blue Idaho]

55. Is anyone sure all "republicans" are voting for Trump?

I'm not...

[geek tragedy]

59. Yes, they're falling in line behind Trump. Most Republicans share his values nt

[LisaL]

62. Yet early poll of those who voted in FL has Clinton ahead.

With republicans and democrats apparently voting close in numbers, how would that be possible?

[geek tragedy]

67. Trump is winning a greater percentage of Republicans than Clinton is of Democrats

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/30/upshot/florida-poll.html?_r=0

Mr. Trump won 86 percent of self-identified Republicans — the highest percentage of that group in any Upshot/Siena survey so far this year.

He had the support of 84 percent of registered Republicans, up from 72 percent in September and also the highest of any Upshot/Siena survey this year.

Mr. Trump’s consolidation of Republican-leaning voters is a trend in national surveys, and it comes alongside a corresponding decline in the number of supporters for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, who received just 4 percent of the vote in our survey — the lowest of any Upshot/Siena poll. Republicans have been likelier than Democrats to support Mr. Johnson in most of our polls.

Even college-educated white voters, who have been skeptical of Mr. Trump nationwide, are showing less skepticism in Florida. He has a lead of 51 percent to 35 percent among those voters in our survey.
Clinton weakness among white working-class Democrats

Mr. Trump leads among white voters without a college degree by an impressive margin of 63 percent to 24 percent. He’s so strong that Mrs. Clinton has just 55 percent of the vote among white registered Democrats without a degree, compared with Mr. Trump’s 32 percent.

The combination of Republican unity and a large dissenting vote among registered Democrats is responsible for Mr. Trump’s lead.

Democratic party in Florida is a shitshow. Their statewide candidates the past two elections have been carpetbagging Republicans (Charlie Crist and Patrick Murphy).

[LisaL]

70. How would it then be possible for Clinton to be ahead in a poll of those who already voted?

And not by a small margin either.

[geek tragedy]

71. polling error, and large margin of error within subset of data.

Democrats can still win Florida, but they need to step it up there.

[Blue Idaho]

64. How do you KNOW that?

Are you privy to polling info or is this conjecture on your part?

[geek tragedy]

68. NYT poll using actual voter file

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2560380

[Blue Idaho]

121. So of the ten polls cited in the article

Two show Trump up by an average of 3 points (inside the margin of error) and one shows them tied. The seven other polls show Clinton leading.

Reminds me of that old saying - there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

[geek tragedy]

122. if the early vote was looking as good as it did in 2012 that would be all well and good.

but Clinton is doing significantly worse than Obama did in building a margin amongst early voters.

That's a big problem, considering Obama won by tiny margin in 2012.

[Blue Idaho]

123. Obviously it's a big problem for you...

The rest of us are trying to get Sec. Clinton elected.

[womanofthehills]

66. Fivethirtyeight still has Florida light blue

[sunonmars]

60. me neither contrary to other doom and gloomers.....

[still_one]

63. This link seems to counter that

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028260948

[geek tragedy]

69. trust actual voting data, and polls using actual voter files, over random digit dialers

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2560380

Crucially, Democrats in FL are losing ground compared to 2012, when they barely squeaked out a victory.

[beachbumbob]

73. You are ignoring the Hispanic turnout....

That alone will be an extra 100,000 additional votes or more for Hillary than Obama got in Florida in 2012...,

[geek tragedy]

74. the partisan breakdown of ballots includes Latinos

also see the NY Times poll based on the actual voter file--shows Trump +4. It's possible polls are picking up people who aren't actually registered to vote.

[still_one]

75. My call banking yesterday into Florida while not scientific was extremely supportive for Hillary,

and about 50% had already voted

[Farmgirl1961]

81. I've been wondering about the Hispanic turnout

In other states, it has been YUGE and I predominantly for Clinton. That coupled with Kaine being a fluent Spanish speaker is a incredible asset.

Is there a way to know if Hispanic voters are voting early? It seems to me that when you take into account so many women going against Trump, and the fact he has so little of the minority vote, that in the end FL will go Hillary. But I'm not that familiar with the demographics. I have faith in Floridians to do the right thing.

[ham_actor]

72. A different perspective for consideration from Five Thirty Eight

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/

[tawadi]

76. I think it will be a very close election. nt

[0ccy01]

78. I'll be very surprised is H wins Fl

Lots of hate for H along the I-4 corridor. With less enthusiasm for her than O, it's going to be very tight race even in the best case scenario.

[mcar]

82. Link?

[JennyMominFL]

104. Not true

I will give you there are definitely more Trump signs here. I'm in Orange county and there are barely any Hillary signs and lots of Trump ones.But here are the EV numbers for Orlando Metro
Orange 27,851 R 47,157 D
Polk 14,198 R 15,771 D Polk usually goes R
Seminole 19,158R 17,253D Usually goes R
Osceola 6,808R 12,003 D
Lake 16,582 R 12,022D
84,597 Rep votes to 104 ,206
Hillary has a good 20,000 more Dem voted than rep ones...in EV
Dems also have a pretty nice lead in Vote by mail too
Numbers here
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[Rex]

79. It is a good thing she does not need Florida to win.

Hopefully it will go blue and so will Texas.

[geek tragedy]

83. she can get 300 EVs without Florida or Ohio

If she trades OH and FL and Iowa for AZ and NC, she still crosses 300 EVs.

But the talk about a landslide and 400 EVs was pretty ridiculous.

[Rex]

84. We still have time before Super Tues, it was the usual Friday night news dump last week.

It could still be a landslide. How much of total voting is early voting?

[geek tragedy]

87. Depends on the state. In Florida probably a majority will be early voting.

Same with NC.

[Rex]

89. Ok thanks.

It would be something if she took both states. I wonder if we have a further bombshell to drop? Trump is already facing court dates Nov 28th and Dec 15th, while they talk about HRC - Crooked Trump is actually going to face justice in a court room.

[StevieM]

86. I believe she could have won 375 if not for James Comey re-introducing the fake email scandal. (eom)

[geek tragedy]

88. Her polling #s were already going down before Friday.

It's mostly Republicans coming home and the Obamacare/Clinton foundation stuff.

She was never going to blow Trump out. She was never ahead by 10% in reality.

[Awsi Dooger]

101. It was never going to be a rout

I always ignore poll numbers that make no sense based on long term perspective or favorability ratings.

Hillary has low upside based on her favorable and "trust" numbers. I always thought her max was 50%, or perhaps 51% if everything continued to implode for Trump.

More likely she'll be in high 40s, somewhere between 47 and 49 percent. That naturally tightens the race as Republicans come home and third party candidates revert to their standard low levels.

[Foggyhill]

103. They weren't going down, the variances were all within margin

If error

[Rex]

90. It was the Friday night news dump, could have been worse.

[jg10003]

96. Weather report from Broward County

Saturday was rainy, dark, and miserable. Sunday is sunny, warm, and breezy.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

99. Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado -- Firewall

More speeches and GOTV there!

Looking at state polls, those three states appear to be the least safe among the "strongly leaning Clinton" group. With victories there, Clinton will still get over 270 electoral votes even without Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Arizona and Iowa.

[geek tragedy]

113. yes, the most likely scenario remains a narrow but clear win by Clinton

At the same time, that someone like Trump will draw 234 Electoral Votes (more than McCain or Romney or Dole) is kinda fucked up, and it also doesn't speak greatly about our party's ability to take advantage of the changing demographics in the country.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

117. Agreed. I WANT a landslide because it SHOULD be a landslide, but...

... let's not screw up so bad that Trump somehow manages to win the damn thing!

Heck, I could've mentioned other similarly-rated polling averages (per 538) in states like Wisconsin and Michigan too.

Sorry to everyone here for my Michael Moore impersonation with this post.

[geek tragedy]

120. I think we got spoiled by the talent top to bottom in Team Obama.

Best candidate of my lifetime, and the best campaign organization of my lifetime.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

124. He's more charismatic too, in my opinion. I think Clinton is a little more introverted...

... and obviously more "guarded" after decades of senseless attacks, but I think she'll do well in office.

I tend to prefer being aggressive, but this is what happens sometimes when a team tries to "pad a lead" instead of playing it more safe.

[geek tragedy]

125. candidly, it's also that Obama cares a lot more about avoiding the

appearance of a conflict of issue, whereas Hillary tends to think more like a lawyer--not concerned about appearances as long as it's technically allowed.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

126. Yeah, that seems to be true as well. n/t

[StevieM]

144. But that doesn't explain where she stands in Wisconsin or Maine's 2nd district.

She needs them too.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

145. Yeah, I mentioned Wisconsin and Michigan in a later post too. Maine's 2nd is another one.

[RandySF]

102. Mark Murray tweeted something out and now I can't find it.

He saud 36% of poll respondents have already voted and Hillary leads by mid-double digits. Trump leads by 9 among those who will vote on election day.

[geek tragedy]

106. As of this morning, only 28% of registered voters had voted

ago.

And that poll was in the field a few days ago, so it's off by a fair bit.

[bluestateguy]

109. Right, but a poll filters down registered voters into a likely voter pool

The state has official records of registered voters, while pollsters have methods to identify (if imperfectly) likely voters.

So the 36% number of likely voters having already voted makes sense against that 28% that you identify.

[geek tragedy]

119. still underperfoming vis a vis Obama in 2012.

And Obama barely won in 2012, and the demographics have shifted in our favor there.

We're very, very lucky we drew Trump as an opponent in 2016. They have the worst candidate ever, running the worst campaign ever, economy doing pretty good (much better than 2012), incumbent president with high approval ratings, and still we're likely to lose a rapidly diversifying Florida.

[wncHillsupport]

107. I live in NC

and I don't know what the Democratic party office is doing but the Hillary office I volunteer at is making calls 7 days a week. And doing mall visits and house to house on weekends. I know because I have been there on Sunday.

I will ask my FL friends in St Pete if they have been contacted. I know they already voted by mail. for hill of course.

[geek tragedy]

108. the #s in NC look great, which corroborates what you're seeing nt

[wncHillsupport]

110. Just checked the FL county vote site listed above

Got this for Pinellas county which includes St Pete, dated 10/30:

41,542 42,863 3,805 25,764 113,974

In order, it is Republicans, Democrats, Other, Unaffiliated, and Total. Looks like it will depend on the unaffiliated folks.

[molova]

112. Keeping it kicked

In case of egg-in-face scenario.

[appleannie1]

127. Ohio and Iowa have both gone back to pink. They had been light blue.

[geek tragedy]

129. Clinton will still total around 290-305 EVs without Florida, Iowa, Ohio nt

[McCamy Taylor]

128. No way Trump should be allowed to steal Florida, not after what he did

and said to the nation's Latinos. Get that vote out!

[LAS14]

131. From the Marist poll of early voters.

Among the 36 percent of likely voters in Florida who say they've already voted, Clinton is ahead, 54 percent to 37 percent.

Among those who haven't voted in the Sunshine State, Trump is up, 51 percent to 42 percent.

And Clinton leads by a 61 percent-to-33 percent margin among the 29 percent of North Carolinians who say they've already voted.

[geek tragedy]

132. That's a poll, not actual votes.

Actual votes shows more Republicans than Democrats have voted in Florida thus far.

300,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted early in 2012. We wound up winning by 76,000 votes. So figure we need to have banked a raw vote advantage in terms of party registration of 200k to have a chance at winning the state.

Dems lost ground this weekend--their lead in absentee votes exceeded our lead in in person votes.

So they need to bank on average 30-40k votes per day every day between now and next Sunday to have a shot at the narrowest of wins.

It is not looking good there. For whatever reason--Comey, ineffective GOTV effort, candidate herself, her effort in Florida is sputtering.

[LAS14]

133. It's a poll of people who have actually voted.

[geek tragedy]

134. It's a poll that includes people who say they have voted.

You can bet a fair number of them haven't actually voted yet.

In NC, 16% of those who told the NYT they had voted weren't showing up on the rolls as having voted.

[Garrett78]

135. As I understand, Republicans tend to do better during the mail-in only portion of early voting.

Once in-person voting starts, Democrats gain ground. And Democrats have done just that, reducing their deficit to 6000 (it was 73,000 at this point in 2008). 6000 amounts to a miniscule percentage. And Latino turnout is up from where it was at this point in '08.

It's too early for anything definitive, and I don't see any evidence to suggest that early voting numbers in Florida spell disaster for Dems. Especially given the recent trend of Dem turnout vs. Rep turnout (with the gap having been closed from 18,000 to 6,000 in a short amount of time).

[geek tragedy]

136. The numbers are not as good as in 2012 and they barely won in 2012

Note the OP:

Dem early vote down 56k from same Saturday in 2012; GOP vote down only 19k.

Not good.

[Garrett78]

137. Sample size matters.

Let's see what the totals are in a few days instead of putting undue focus on a single day. Any number of factors can play a role in the totals for a particular day, and to extrapolate based on a single day is not statistically sound.

[geek tragedy]

138. They depend on weekend days to pad their margins

They just wasted the only full weekend of statewide EIP voting.

The stats about #s of field offices and paid staff are proving laughably irrelevant, at least in Florida, where the GOP is doing a better job getting their people out with 1/5 the resources Clinton has.

[Awsi Dooger]

142. Big thanks to everyone who is helping in Florida

I posted earlier in this thread that I was frustrated at lack of outreach compared to Nevada. The states don't compare. I should have noted that. In Nevada it's basically squeeze everything out of a concentrated area of Clark County (Las Vegas), break even in Reno/Carson City, and then hang on versus the rural cow counties. Florida is exponentially more populated and complex.

That said, I don't think Hillary will carry the state. The early vote numbers don't align with that theoretical 2-3 point margin that was a polling consensus for so long. Every day except Sunday this house is bombarded with mailers and phone calls from rightwing sources. It is leftover from when my Republican sister lived her. She moved out in late June. The volume of that GOP content has been an ongoing hint that their ground game, or whatever you want to call it, is underrated in this state. It swamps what I have received as a registered Democrat.

Fortunately we have other paths.

[Starry Messenger]

146. Are you phone banking?

[geek tragedy]

147. Tomorrow after work! nt